Latest news with #Watling
CNBC
22-05-2025
- Business
- CNBC
Russia's struggling war economy might be what finally drives Moscow to the negotiating table
Russia has shown little appetite for peace negotiations with Ukraine, despite Moscow making a show of what war experts described as "performative ceasefires," and a number of attempts by U.S. President Donald Trump to persuade Russian leader Vladimir Putin to talk to Kyiv. In fact, Moscow is widely believed to be planning a new summer offensive in Ukraine to consolidate territorial gains in the southern and eastern parts of the country, that its forces partially occupy. If successful, the offensive could give Russia more leverage in any future talks. While Russia seems reluctant to pursue peace now, increasing economic and military pressures at home — ranging from supplies of military hardware and recruitment of soldiers, to sanctions on revenue-generating exports like oil — could be the factors that eventually drive Moscow to the negotiating table. "Russia will seek to intensify offensive operations to build pressure during negotiations, but the pressure cannot be sustained indefinitely," Jack Watling, senior research fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, said in analysis Tuesday. Russian stockpiles of military equipment left over from the Soviet era, including tanks, artillery and infantry fighting vehicles, will be running out between now and mid-fall, Watling said, meaning that Russia's ability to replace losses will be entirely dependent on what it can produce from scratch. "At the same time, while Russia can fight another two campaign seasons with its current approach to recruitment, further offensive operations into 2026 will likely require further forced mobilisation, which is both politically and economically challenging," Watling surmised. CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for a response to the comments and is awaiting a reply. In the meantime, dark clouds are gathering on the horizon when it comes to Russia's war-focused economy, which has labored under the weight of international sanctions as well as homegrown pressures, also largely resulting from war, such as rampant inflation and high food and production costs that even Putin described as "alarming." Russia's central bank (CBR) has stood the course of keeping interest rates high (at 21%) in a bid to lower the rate of inflation, which stood at 10.2% in April. The CBR said in May that a disinflationary process is underway but that "a prolonged period of tight monetary policy" is still required for inflation to return to its target of 4% in 2026. In the meantime, a marked slowdown in the Russian economy has surprised some economists. "The sharp slowdown in Russian gross domestic product growth from 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, to 1.4% in the first quarter is consistent with a sharp fall in output and suggests that the economy may be heading for a much harder landing than we had expected," Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics commented last week. "Such a sharp drop in GDP growth has surprised us, although we had expected a slowdown to take hold this year," he noted, adding that "a technical recession is possible over the first half of the year and GDP growth over 2025 as a whole could come in significantly below our current forecast of 2.5%." The growth that remains in the Russian economy is concentrated in manufacturing, specifically the defense sector and related industries, and is being fueled by state spending, according to Alexander Kolyandr, senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. "After three years of militarizing the country, Russia's economy is cooling," he said in online analysis for CEPA, noting that the slowdown in inflation, less borrowing by companies and consumers, declining imports, industrial output and consumer spending all pointed to the slowdown continuing. That's not disputed by Russian officials, with the Economic Development Ministry predicting that economic growth will slow from 4.3% in 2024 to 2.5% this year. "The economy is not demobilizing; it is just running out of steam. That said, a drop can easily become a dive. Bad decisions by policymakers, a further dip in oil prices, or carelessness with inflation, and Russia could find itself in trouble," Kolyandr said. What's particularly starting to hurt Russia are factors beyond its control, including tighter sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" (vessels illicitly transporting oil in a bid to evade sanctions enacted following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine) and a decline in oil prices as a result of Trump's global tariffs policy that is hitting demand. On Thursday, benchmark Brent futures with a July expiry stood at $64.94 a barrel while frontmonth July U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $61.65. The last spot price of a barrel of Urals crude oil, Russia's benchmark, was at $59.97, according to LSEG data. At the start of 2025, Brent was trading at $74.64 per barrel, while WTI and Urals crude were trading at $75.13 and $70.04, respectively. Russia's finance ministry said in April that it expects 24% lower revenues from oil and gas this year, compared to earlier estimates, and lowered its oil price forecast from $69.7 to $56 per barrel. The ministry also raised the 2025 budget deficit estimate to 1.7% of GDP, from a previous forecast of 0.5%. A lower oil price will "severely limit Russian revenue while its reserves are becoming depleted," RUSI's analyst Watling remarked. "More aggressive enforcement against Russia's shadow fleet and the continuation of Ukraine's deep strike campaign could reduce the liquid capital that has so far allowed Russia to steadily increase defence production and offer massive bonuses for volunteers joining the military," he said. If Western allies can maintain and strengthen efforts to degrade Russia's economy, and Ukraine's forces "deny Russia from reaching the borders of Donetsk [in eastern Ukraine] between now and Christmas," then "Moscow will face hard choices about the costs it is prepared to incur for continuing the war." "Under such conditions the Russians may move from Potemkin negotiations to actually negotiating," Watling said.
North Wales Live
28-04-2025
- North Wales Live
Woman left with broken nose after Anglesey man threw phone at her
An Anglesey man left his partner with a broken nose after he threw a phone at her during a row. Daniel Watling, 34, admitted causing actual bodily harm and intentionally strangling the victim. A judge heard he had not re-offended since the incident in July 2023 and gave him a suspended prison sentence. Caernarfon Crown Court heard that Watling, of Lon Las, Holyhead, had been at his partner's home on July 23 that year. He got angry and she asked him to leave. Six days later he came back during the day. You can sign up for all the latest court stories here He banged on her door and demanded to be let in but eventually left. That evening he returned at 11.30pm, pushing his way in. During the incident Watling strangled the victim three times and threw a mobile phone at her "with full force," the court heard. The impact broke her nose and she later needed surgery under general anaesthetic. A neighbour Christopher Jones arrived and Watling left. The victim's physical injuries have healed but she now suffers from Post Traumatic Stress Disorder. The judge Her Honour Nicola Jones noted that it was a persistent assault in the victim's home where she should have felt safe. She also said that Watling wasn't charged with assault occasioning actual bodily harm and intentional strangulation until a year after the altercation. The judge added that, almost two years on, Watling now has a job and lives with his parents who appear to be a stabilising influence. She gave him a two-year jail term for causing the ABH but suspended it for two years. She said the reason she was suspending the sentence was that the public at large and women in particular would be better protected from Watling if his risk to them was lowered through his rehabilitation. He must go on 26 sessions of an accredited programme and attend 30 days of rehabilitation activity. He must also wear an electronic tag during a six-month curfew between 9.30pm and 6.30am. There was also a concurrent, two-year, jail term for intentional strangulation which was also suspended for two years. The judge made a ten-year restraining order prohibiting Watling from contacting his victim or going near her home. He has to pay £800 towards costs and a £228 surcharge.
Yahoo
11-03-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Calls for visa student rules to be scrapped
The government should scrap a rule which prevents some international students bringing their families with them to the UK, a senior university official has said. Professor Jennifer Watling, of Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), said the restriction, introduced in 2024, has led to a fall in the number overseas admissions. She said international students brought "value in terms of cultural richness and diversity" but were also important sources of funding which many universities. A government spokesman said while the UK values the contribution international students make, "net migration must come down". The Labour government has previously said it has no plans to lift the ban on relatives arriving with international students, which was brought in under the Conservative government to curb migration. International student visa applications have fallen across some universities since the change was introduced according to Home Office figures. Prof Watling said the cap on fees for domestic students meant universities "have to obtain income from sources other than UK students". UK undergraduates fees are set to rise to £9,535 a year from September. International students studying at the same level pay an average of about £22,000 annually, though some pay as much as £38,000, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) said. There are more than 51,000 international students at universities in the north west of England, according to 2024 admission figures from advocacy group Universities UK. A study by think tank the Higher Education Policy Institute found income from these fees can be vital to universities. Rose Stephenson from the Institute, said: "For Manchester, there was an economic benefit of £450 million which actually translates to over £3,500 per resident, again per cohort of international students coming in." Despite the falls in admissions, international students are still attracted by opportunities in the UK, Margarida Vasconcelos, a digital marketing student at MMU, said. She said: "There are a lot of international students and opportunities, people from different cultures, religions, so it makes it us feel more welcome - it was why I wanted to come to Manchester." "This government strongly values the contribution that international students make to our economy, to our education institutions and to our society," a Home Office spokesman said. Listen to the best of BBC Radio Manchester on Sounds and follow BBC Manchester on Facebook, X, and Instagram and watch BBC North West Tonight on BBC iPlayer. Drop in foreign student visas worrying for UK universities If a university goes bust, which students lose most? Award-winning garden gets new home at university Universities object to nearby institution's name change UCAS Universities UK Study Manchester Metropolitan University
BBC News
11-03-2025
- Business
- BBC News
Family visa rules for international students must change
The government should scrap a rule which prevents some international students bringing their families with them to the UK, a senior university official has said. Professor Jennifer Watling, of Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), said the restriction, introduced in 2024, has led to a fall in the number overseas admissions. She said international students brought "value in terms of cultural richness and diversity" but were also important sources of funding which many universities. A government spokesman said while the UK values the contribution international students make, "net migration must come down". The Labour government has previously said it has no plans to lift the ban on relatives arriving with international students, which was brought in under the Conservative government to curb student visa applications have fallen across some universities since the change was introduced according to Home Office figures. Prof Watling said the cap on fees for domestic students meant universities "have to obtain income from sources other than UK students".UK undergraduates fees are set to rise to £9,535 a year from students studying at the same level pay an average of about £22,000 annually, though some pay as much as £38,000, the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) said. 'More welcome' There are more than 51,000 international students at universities in the north west of England, according to 2024 admission figures from advocacy group Universities UK. A study by think tank the Higher Education Policy Institute found income from these fees can be vital to universities. Rose Stephenson from the Institute, said: "For Manchester, there was an economic benefit of £450 million which actually translates to over £3,500 per resident, again per cohort of international students coming in."Despite the falls in admissions, international students are still attracted by opportunities in the UK, Margarida Vasconcelos, a digital marketing student at MMU, said: "There are a lot of international students and opportunities, people from different cultures, religions, so it makes it us feel more welcome - it was why I wanted to come to Manchester.""This government strongly values the contribution that international students make to our economy, to our education institutions and to our society," a Home Office spokesman said. Listen to the best of BBC Radio Manchester on Sounds and follow BBC Manchester on Facebook, X, and Instagram and watch BBC North West Tonight on BBC iPlayer.
Yahoo
19-02-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Investors aren't just buying US stocks anymore: Morning Brief
One of Wall Street's most popular calls in 2025 was for continued US "exceptionalism" in the stock market. But less than two months into the year, confidence in that trade is waning and the alternate scenario we laid out in December, where the rest of the world outperforms US stocks, is playing out. In the February Bank of America Fund Manager Survey, 34% of fund managers said global stocks will be leading the asset class this year, followed by 22% listing gold. Meanwhile, US equities dropped to third in the rankings, with 18% saying the asset class will once again lead this year. In January, 27% of respondents had picked US equities to lead. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note to clients this shift shows a "peak in investor conviction of US exceptionalism." Recent market action bears out this sentiment too. Last week, inflows into European equities jumped to a two-year high, according to Deutsche Bank. For the year, the European STXE 600 (^STOXX) has risen more than 10%, outpacing the S&P 500's (^GSPC) roughly 4% gain. Strategists have highlighted a few reasons for the divergence that say just as much about the shifting backdrop for US stocks as they do about the European rally. For one, markets have grown less optimistic about Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 and now only expect a single cut this year. Read more: How the Fed rate decision affects your bank accounts, loans, credit cards, and investments As UBS Asset Management's fixed income investment specialists team pointed out in the latest Yahoo Finance Chartbook, those expectations have diverged from those of the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which still feature far more optimism around rate cuts. This comes as consensus projections for economic growth show gross domestic product (GDP) increasing in 2025 from the year prior in the United Kingdom and the eurozone. Meanwhile, consensus currently sees the US economy growing at a 2.2% annualized pace in 2025, down from the 2.8% pace seen in 2024. Additionally, recent economic developments, including a surprisingly weak retail sales report in January, have economists already warning that the first quarter could see weaker economic growth than initially thought. "There's a bit of a growth issue in the US relative to expectations," Chris Watling, Longview Economics global economist and chief market strategist, told Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief show on Tuesday. As Watling noted, "relative to expectations" is the key here. In markets, where investors want to put their money often centers around where expectations are rising or falling. It's the rate of change, not the absolute level. And investors like Watling like the improving growth story in economies outside the US. It's particularly attractive when you consider where investors were positioned entering the year. Markets have been all about US exceptionalism, pushing US equity valuations to levels rarely seen in history. "We put a lot of weight on what's priced and investor positioning," Tom Becker, BlackRock lead portfolio manager of the tactical opportunities fund, told Yahoo Finance's Catalysts show Tuesday. "Some of the positioning indicators that we look at toward the end of last year looked a little bit overstretched in the US." To Becker, and clearly some other market participants, this meant the risk-return trade-off was more attractive in the "unloved foreign markets." The same point could be made for some of the S&P 500's top-performing sectors this year like Materials (XLB) and Energy (XLE), which were among the worst performers last year. As BofA's survey showed, with investors' allocation to cash at a 15-year low, few are looking to get out of this market. Instead, investors are just seeing a higher likelihood of outperforming the market beyond the small group of tech stocks we've all been talking about for the better part of two years. Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Sign in to access your portfolio
