Latest news with #ZacharyGriffiths
Yahoo
28-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Treasuries Pare Losses as Investors Snap Up Five-Year Notes
(Bloomberg) -- US Treasuries trimmed early losses after a $70 billion auction of new five-year securities lured solid investor demand. NYC Congestion Toll Brings In $216 Million in First Four Months NY Wins Order Against US Funding Freeze in Congestion Fight The yield on 10-year benchmark Treasuries was up about three basis points following Wednesday's sale, after earlier climbing more than five basis points. The shift came as the US government's offering of five-year notes drew a yield of about 4.071%, slightly below the level seen immediately before the auction. Indirect bidders, a category of investors that includes foreign central banks, took down a record 78% of the debt. 'It looks like a solid auction,' said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macroeconomic strategy at CreditSights Inc. Despite the recent concern about foreign demand for US debt, 'it does not appear there has been a mass exodus.' The five-year auction spotlights a maturity that's become a sweet spot for many investors because it's less sensitive to monetary and fiscal policies than its shorter- and longer-dated peers. It follows solid demand for a two-year auction on Tuesday and comes ahead of Thursday's $44 billion sale of seven-year notes. What Bloomberg strategists say... 'The amount of indirect bids submitted was also the highest ever, by a slight margin. (Perhaps Taiwan's central bank got involved after its recent 'smoothing' operations?) While directs and dealers took a correspondingly low amount of this sale, it's hard to call it anything but solid given indirect demand and the award rate. There was little evidence of a Treasury buyers' strike at this sale, at least.' — Cameron Crise, strategist on Bloomberg's Markets Live blog Still, that appetite has yet to clearly extend to longer-term debt, which has been dragging after a string of weaker auctions around the globe. A 40-year auction sale in Japan met the weakest demand since July. Bonds that mature over a longer horizon have been hit as investors grow concerned about widening fiscal deficits in some of the world's big economies, including the US. 'It's hard to argue with the concern over the fiscal policy,' said James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management Ltd. 'We are likely to oscillate fairly significantly just given the extent of uncertainty and the inflation risks which are still ahead.' Last week, the US 30-year yield touched 5.15%, its highest since October 2023. The gap between five and 30-year yields has risen above 90 basis points, around its highest since 2021. On Wednesday, the 30-year yield was higher by about three basis points to 4.98%. The question for some on Wall Street now centers on when those lofty yields start to entice some buyers. In the futures market, a block trade targeting a narrower yield gap between 10- and 30-year bonds stood out. 'Bonds actually look attractive now from a yield perspective,' said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James Place. He added that he expected continued volatility, citing President Donald Trump's tax bill, trade tariffs and political uncertainty. --With assistance from Sujata Rao and James Hirai. (Updates with results from Treasury auction, market moves and comments.) Mark Zuckerberg Loves MAGA Now. Will MAGA Ever Love Him Back? Millions of Americans Are Obsessed With This Japanese Barbecue Sauce Why Apple Still Hasn't Cracked AI YouTube Is Swallowing TV Whole, and It's Coming for the Sitcom Inside the First Stargate AI Data Center ©2025 Bloomberg L.P. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Economic Times
16-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Asian stocks, bonds climb as trade-truce rally holds
Live Events Stock Rally (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Asian equities followed Wall Street higher in a sign the stock market rally has further to run. Treasuries advanced on Thursday as traders priced in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this in South Korea and Australia climbed early Friday, while Japan's were mixed. US futures inched higher after the S&P 500 rose 0.4% Thursday. Canada's stock benchmark hit a record with an eight-day still lurked in the background after a furious rally spurred worries about an overheated market, with the pendulum swinging in favor of defensive dividend-payers that had underperformed in the past month. Meta Platforms Inc. paced losses in big tech on a news report it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model. In late hours, Applied Materials Inc. gave a tepid forecast. And Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s quarterly revenue grew a disappointing 7%, reflecting pressure on Chinese were steady in Asian trading on Friday after a Thursday rally as prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined by the most in five years suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs. Australian and New Zealand yields US economic data showed growth in retail sales decelerated. Factory production declined for the first time in six months while New York state manufacturing contracted again. And confidence among homebuilders slumped.'If you are in the stagflation camp, these data aren't confirming your thesis,' said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group. 'While growth is slowing, disinflation remains intact.'The bond rally on Thursday sent yields down 10 basis points or more for debt maturing in two to 10 years. Longer-dated bonds were earlier whipsawed by large trades that briefly pushed the 30-year yield to nearly 5%. A dollar gauge lost 0.2% Thursday and was flat early Friday.'Bad news is good news for the bond market' as Thursday's data — including producer prices and retail sales — pointed to a weaker economy, said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macroeconomic strategy at CreditSights Asia, US President Donald Trump said India had made an offer to drop tariffs on US goods, as the Asian nation negotiates a deal to avert higher import taxes. India was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the US following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the White House in Japan's economy shrank for the first time in a year, illustrating its vulnerability even before sustaining the impact of Trump's tariff measures. The yen gained 0.2% on Friday to trade around 145 per data set for release in the region includes gross-domestic product for Malaysia and Hong Kong, inflation expectations for New Zealand and international reserves for Thailand. Bank of Japan official Toyoaki Nakamura will speak later in the are now trading like last month's rout never happened. The S&P 500 is about 4% away from an all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 swung from a bear market back into a bull market. The advance is building as economic tensions between the US and China ease and the White House appears to be softening its approach to trade negotiations.'I don't want to get too excited, but we may actually be able to focus on company fundamentals for a while this summer,' said Lamar Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co. 'If you'd told me a month ago that stocks would be up year-to-date when my kids finished their exams, I'd have called you a liar.'Still, there's little clarity over how the existing levies might impact the US economy or the trajectory the global trade war will take in coming Governor Michael Barr said the economy is on solid ground, but warned tariff-related supply-chain disruptions could lead to lower growth and higher remains a possibility as tariff fallout continues to buffet global economies, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.'Hopefully we'll avoid it, but I wouldn't take it off the table at this point,' Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday at JPMorgan's annual Global Markets Conference in Paris. 'If there is a recession, I don't know how big it would be or how long it would last.'Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees economic growth, clarity around Trump's tariffs and continued earnings growth driving further stock-market gains through the rest of this year and commodities, oil rebounded on Friday after slumping in its previous session as President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Gold was little changed.
Time of India
16-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Asian stocks, bonds climb as trade-truce rally holds
Live Events Stock Rally (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Asian equities followed Wall Street higher in a sign the stock market rally has further to run. Treasuries advanced on Thursday as traders priced in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this in South Korea and Australia climbed early Friday, while Japan's were mixed. US futures inched higher after the S&P 500 rose 0.4% Thursday. Canada's stock benchmark hit a record with an eight-day still lurked in the background after a furious rally spurred worries about an overheated market, with the pendulum swinging in favor of defensive dividend-payers that had underperformed in the past month. Meta Platforms Inc. paced losses in big tech on a news report it was delaying the rollout of a flagship AI model. In late hours, Applied Materials Inc. gave a tepid forecast. And Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.'s quarterly revenue grew a disappointing 7%, reflecting pressure on Chinese were steady in Asian trading on Friday after a Thursday rally as prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined by the most in five years suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs. Australian and New Zealand yields US economic data showed growth in retail sales decelerated. Factory production declined for the first time in six months while New York state manufacturing contracted again. And confidence among homebuilders slumped.'If you are in the stagflation camp, these data aren't confirming your thesis,' said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group. 'While growth is slowing, disinflation remains intact.'The bond rally on Thursday sent yields down 10 basis points or more for debt maturing in two to 10 years. Longer-dated bonds were earlier whipsawed by large trades that briefly pushed the 30-year yield to nearly 5%. A dollar gauge lost 0.2% Thursday and was flat early Friday.'Bad news is good news for the bond market' as Thursday's data — including producer prices and retail sales — pointed to a weaker economy, said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macroeconomic strategy at CreditSights Asia, US President Donald Trump said India had made an offer to drop tariffs on US goods, as the Asian nation negotiates a deal to avert higher import taxes. India was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with the US following Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the White House in Japan's economy shrank for the first time in a year, illustrating its vulnerability even before sustaining the impact of Trump's tariff measures. The yen gained 0.2% on Friday to trade around 145 per data set for release in the region includes gross-domestic product for Malaysia and Hong Kong, inflation expectations for New Zealand and international reserves for Thailand. Bank of Japan official Toyoaki Nakamura will speak later in the are now trading like last month's rout never happened. The S&P 500 is about 4% away from an all-time high, while the Nasdaq 100 swung from a bear market back into a bull market. The advance is building as economic tensions between the US and China ease and the White House appears to be softening its approach to trade negotiations.'I don't want to get too excited, but we may actually be able to focus on company fundamentals for a while this summer,' said Lamar Villere, portfolio manager at Villere & Co. 'If you'd told me a month ago that stocks would be up year-to-date when my kids finished their exams, I'd have called you a liar.'Still, there's little clarity over how the existing levies might impact the US economy or the trajectory the global trade war will take in coming Governor Michael Barr said the economy is on solid ground, but warned tariff-related supply-chain disruptions could lead to lower growth and higher remains a possibility as tariff fallout continues to buffet global economies, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon.'Hopefully we'll avoid it, but I wouldn't take it off the table at this point,' Dimon said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday at JPMorgan's annual Global Markets Conference in Paris. 'If there is a recession, I don't know how big it would be or how long it would last.'Wells Fargo Investment Institute sees economic growth, clarity around Trump's tariffs and continued earnings growth driving further stock-market gains through the rest of this year and commodities, oil rebounded on Friday after slumping in its previous session as President Donald Trump said the US and Iran are getting closer to a deal regarding Tehran's nuclear program. Gold was little changed.
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
US Bonds Climb as Economic Data Backs Bets on Two 2025 Fed Cuts
(Bloomberg) -- Treasuries gained as a fresh spate of economic data offered signs of ebbing economic activity and dimming inflation, supporting bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice this year. As Coastline Erodes, One California City Considers 'Retreat Now' How a Highway Became San Francisco's Newest Park Power-Hungry Data Centers Are Warming Homes in the Nordics Maryland's Credit Rating Gets Downgraded as Governor Blames Trump NYC Commuters Brace for Chaos as NJ Transit Strike Looms The bond gains on Thursday came after several Wall Street strategists boosted their yield forecasts earlier in the week as their firms' economic teams pushed back expectations for when the Fed will resume easing policy. Still, swaps traders maintained wagers on two quarter-point Fed cuts by year-end. The dollar edged lower. Treasury yields were down as much as 10 basis points, after long maturities were whipsawed earlier in the day by large trades that briefly pushed the 30-year bond to nearly 5%. Rates on debt that matures from five to seven years led the declines. 'Bad news is good news for the bond market' as the latest data could be signs of a weaker economy that may allow the Fed to cut rates sooner than anticipated, said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment-grade and macroeconomic strategy at CreditSights Inc. 'Our base case remains the Fed stays on hold this year as we expect below-potential growth, but no recession, and tariffs - even at the current levels - likely to produce sustained inflationary pressure.' Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined in April by the most in five years, suggesting companies are absorbing some of the hit from higher tariffs. Meanwhile, growth in US retail sales decelerated notably as consumers pulled back spending on imported goods amid concerns about rising prices from levies. Two-year yields, which are most sensitive to Fed policy, slid as much as nine basis points to 3.96%, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped a similar amount to 4.44%. Investors have been increasingly wary of buying long-term securities given concern about the US fiscal trajectory, and the 30-year yield dropped by a smaller magnitude. While swaps traders were fully pricing in the Fed's next reduction for October, the odds in the market were also strong for a move in September. That's ahead of some Wall Street economists, who pushed out their forecasts for the next cut after the recent cooling in US-China trade tensions. For the rest of the year, swaps contracts imply about 0.54 percentage point in total Fed cuts. The rates strategy teams at TD Securities, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America were among those that boosted their forecasts for Treasury yields over recent days. In the meantime, Republican lawmakers' draft plan for sweeping tax cuts has been moving ahead, sparking renewed focus on the US fiscal trajectory, with the package projected to worsen the federal deficit and lift the government's debt burden. Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Thursday that the US deficit and debt load is an issue. 'It creates risk of inflation to me. It creates risk of higher long-term rates,' Dimon said at JPMorgan's annual Global Markets Conference in Paris. That might slow growth and create a stagflation scenario, he added. Even higher short-term yields risk causing a hit to the fiscal outlook given US debt managers have hoisted sales of bills in recent years. At least $9.3 trillion of federal debt is slated to mature and roll over within a year – in addition to the approximately $2 trillion that the Treasury will need to issue over the next year to cover the federal deficit, according to the Peterson Foundation. Traders have received through the week signals from Fed policy makers that they're comfortable keeping rates unchanged as they await more clarity on how the administration's trade policy will affect growth and inflation. Last week, the Fed opted to hold rates steady while it waits for further evidence on the strength of the economy. 'Weaker consumer spending and lower inflation could give the Fed some room to ease later in the year if these trends continue,' said David Berson, chief US economist at Cumberland Advisors. In prepared remarks released on Thursday on the Fed's framework review, Fed Chair Jerome Powell held off on providing insights on the near-term outlook for monetary policy. --With assistance from Aline Oyamada and Edward Bolingbroke. (Updates rates, adds strategist comments.) Cartoon Network's Last Gasp DeepSeek's 'Tech Madman' Founder Is Threatening US Dominance in AI Race Why Obesity Drugs Are Getting Cheaper — and Also More Expensive As Nuclear Power Makes a Comeback, South Korea Emerges a Winner Tariffs Won't Reindustrialize America. Here's What Will ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Mint
30-04-2025
- Business
- Mint
Short-Term US Bonds Rise as Traders Boost Bets on 2025 Rate Cuts
Short-term Treasuries rose and traders boosted their expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts later this year after the US economy contracted for the first time since 2022. The gain in two-year notes on Wednesday pushed yields lower by about four basis points after data showed a decrease in US gross domestic product, more moderate consumer spending and tameness in the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation. In the swaps market, traders increased their wagers on four quarter-point reductions by the end of the year, with the first fully priced in for July. The moves added to the advances in the $29 trillion Treasury market in April, even after the volatility that rocked investors earlier in the month on President Donald Trump's evolving trade policy. A key Bloomberg gauge of US government bonds was up 0.6% in April, the fourth monthly advance and the longest winning streak since September. 'The overall takeaway to me is stagflation concerns are validated even before many tariffs come into effect,' Zachary Griffiths, head of US investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights. 'I think you're seeing that in the market reaction.' Wednesday's price action also saw thirty-year yields edge higher as investors were disappointed by the Treasury's guidance that it'll maintain its auction sizes for the coming quarters. The department said it plans to sell $125 billion of securities at next week's so-called quarterly refunding auctions, which span 3-, 10- and 30-year maturities. While the guidance was in line with most investors' expectations, some market watchers had anticipated that Treasury officials could take a more aggressive stance to soothe the markets' supply concerns. Citigroup's strategists, for example, last week said that the curve may steepen if buybacks are not increased. 'Although guidance was unchanged, the long-end reaction suggests more was expected from Treasury,' Wells Fargo's strategists Angelo Manolatos and William Gibbons wrote in a note. 'Some market participants likely expected increased liquidity support buybacks.' The underperformance in longer-dated bonds widened the yield gap between five- and 30-year yields to 92 basis points, with the curve steepening about 30 basis points in April. It reflects investors who expect that a slowing economy will eventually lead the Fed to cut borrowing costs, even as inflation and bond supply keep long-end yields elevated. Wednesday's data showed inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years. The GDP report also highlighted that a closely watched measure of underlying inflation accelerated to a 3.5% pace in the first quarter — the most in a year. 'The upside in consumption is the main market driver here followed by the stronger price index,' said Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy for EMEA at Mizuho International Plc. 'GDP today says that is not the current problem to worry about. Instead it's higher prices and huge import accumulation.' The focus turns later this week to the US jobs report, which is expected to show the economy created 135,000 new positions in April compared to 228,000 in March. With assistance from James Hirai, Alice Gledhill and Edward Bolingbroke. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text. First Published: 1 May 2025, 01:16 AM IST
