Latest news with #powerimbalance
CNN
4 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Is Trump forcing a marriage of convenience between India and China? Like most relationships, it's complicated
Their relationship is defined by a bloody border dispute, a vast power imbalance and a fierce contest for influence across Asia. Yet, President Donald Trump's latest trade war may be achieving the unthinkable: pushing India and China into a wary but tactical embrace. Trump's announcement of a new base tariff rate of 25% in India – later set to rise to a staggering 50% as additional punishment for purchasing Russian oil – in some ways mirrors the long pressure campaign he's waged against China and creates a shared interest between New Delhi and Beijing. While a thaw in India and China's fractious relationship was already underway, analysts say Trump's actions have added to this shift. New Delhi and Beijing now find themselves navigating a volatile and unpredictable Washington that treats strategic partners and geopolitical rivals with the same transactional disdain, be they in Europe or Asia. But in chastising India for not having a more open economy and its energy ties to Russia, the Trump administration is punishing the very nation the US has spent years cultivating as a democratic counterweight to China's power – creating an opening for Beijing. This tactical realignment is underscored by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reported plans to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit later this month, which would be his first trip to China in seven years. When asked to confirm Indian media reports about Modi's attendance, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Beijing 'welcomes' Modi for the meeting. 'We believe that with the concerted effort of all parties, the Tianjin summit will be a gathering of solidarity, friendship and fruitful results,' said spokesperson Guo Jiakun. Yet, as the niceties play out in public, analysts say this is an alliance of convenience, not conviction. The deep-seated strategic distrust between Asia's two giants, born from their border conflict and struggle for regional dominance, remains firmly in place. For now, they are aligned partly not by a shared vision, but by a shared antagonist in the White House. 'We may see a greater thaw in India-China ties in face of a tough United States,' said Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives, Asia Society Policy Institute. But she warned that New Delhi must not lose sight of Washington and 'risk reversing the growth in relations it has long worked hard on to achieve.' India's relationship with the US has undergone a dramatic transformation, from Cold War estrangement to crucial partners in the 21st Century. Since Modi, a right-wing Hindu nationalist, swept to power in 2014, the relationship reached new heights, partly driven by the personal rapport he developed with Trump during his first term, during which the Indian leader cast aside staid diplomatic protocol to campaign for his counterpart's second term during a rally in Houston. New Delhi's growing alignment with Washington became even more critical as its own relationship with Beijing cratered after deadly border clashes in 2020 pushed the two Asian giants further apart than at any time in decades. The US' commitment to India deepened under the Biden administration, which identified New Delhi as a vital counterweight to Beijing's growing influence. President Joe Biden often lavished praise on Modi, while largely setting aside sharp criticism from rights groups over the Modi administration's alleged democratic backsliding at home. But then came Trump's re-election, with a turbocharged 'America First' policy that looked far beyond confronting just China on trade. In a move that threatens to shatter this two-decade consensus, the US president publicly reprimanded New Delhi earlier this month over its Russian oil imports, calling the Indian economy 'dead' and singling out India for Washington's highest global tariff rate. With his new tariffs, Trump is punishing a country that currently imports 36% of its crude oil from Russia, much of it used to support its booming economy and growing 1.4 billion-strong population. But by treating New Delhi a transactional adversary to be punished, Washington risks shattering a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific strategy, said Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow, South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Trump's latest actions, 'take us right back to that era of estrangement,' he said. 'The US-India relationship is robust enough that it won't be undone overnight, but these moves have created a massive trust deficit on the Indian side.' While many nations have rushed to strike trade deals with Trump to lower tariffs, India under Modi has been less willing to cave. India shot back, calling the tariffs 'unfair' and 'unjustified,' pointing out the hypocrisy of Trump's move and noting that the US and Europe still buy Russian fertilizers and chemicals. Trump has repeatedly called India a 'tariff king,' but a senior Indian official said the country is 'far from' it, noting that India imposes 'zero to low duties on many key US exports' including coal, pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts and machinery. India imposes some higher tariffs on the US than vice versa, particularly on agricultural imports that attract a simple average tariff of 39% compared to the US's 5%, according to a report from the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. The 'mood (toward the US) is hardening in India, partly because of the way Mr. Trump has gone about and played his cards,' said Harsh V. Pant, vice president of foreign policy at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank. 'The way he does diplomacy through public channels, and the way he seems intent on reducing the space for the Modi government to maneuver.' Modi, who was under pressure by opposition politicians to stand up to his long-term friend, defended his country at an event last week. India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,' he said. 'I know personally, I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it.' The unintended consequences of Trump's policies, analysts say, have the potential to push historic rivals New Delhi and Beijing into a strategic embrace. There has been a gradual normalization of ties between India and China after Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia last October. India and China agreed to resume direct commercial flights, Beijing recently agreed to reopen two pilgrimage sites in western Tibet to Indians for the first time in five years, and both started re-issuing tourist visas for each other's citizens. 'For its own economic reasons, namely a slowdown in growth and a slump in foreign direct investment, India has signaled a greater willingness to entertain warmer trade and investment linkages with China,' said Vaishnav, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But this convergence remains limited by the deep-seated mistrust between them, rooted in their deadly border clashes in the Himalayas and China's strategic entrenchment in Pakistan. Vaishnav predicted the future would be one of duality: 'I expect we will see increasing economic cooperation coupled with strategic rivalry,' he said of the relationship between India and China. Washington's willingness to antagonize a key partner like India has also baffled observers. One view is that the Trump administration lacks a clear, overarching strategy, diminishing India's crucial role as a democratic counterweight to China. 'There is no coherent China policy in this administration,' said Vaishnav. 'Which means India's role as a bulwark against China is under-emphasized.' He added that as Trump's mood on Russia soured, 'India's Russian oil imports became an easy target.' A more personal motivation may also be at play. Analysts suggest Trump's hostility could have been triggered by a bruised ego after India downplayed his alleged role in defusing a major crisis with Pakistan. Trump announced he had brokered a ceasefire following a military escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors in May. While Islamabad publicly praised the claim and even nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Indian officials refused to credit Washington's apparent intervention. 'After that, things went belly up,' Pant said. 'The (trade) deal which at one point seemed very doable, kept on going. And the more frustrated Mr. Trump has become, the more voluble he has become in terms of his public threats to India.' Critics say Trump's policies could be leading to the very outcome some US strategists have long sought to avoid. 'It could be the worst outcome for the United States,' Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton told CNN's Kaitlan Collins. 'The irony here is that while the secondary tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia, it could push India back closer to Russia and, ironically, closer to China, perhaps negotiating together against the US tariff efforts.'
CNN
4 days ago
- Business
- CNN
Is Trump forcing a marriage of convenience between India and China? Like most relationships, it's complicated
Their relationship is defined by a bloody border dispute, a vast power imbalance and a fierce contest for influence across Asia. Yet, President Donald Trump's latest trade war may be achieving the unthinkable: pushing India and China into a wary but tactical embrace. Trump's announcement of a new base tariff rate of 25% in India – later set to rise to a staggering 50% as additional punishment for purchasing Russian oil – in some ways mirrors the long pressure campaign he's waged against China and creates a shared interest between New Delhi and Beijing. While a thaw in India and China's fractious relationship was already underway, analysts say Trump's actions have added to this shift. New Delhi and Beijing now find themselves navigating a volatile and unpredictable Washington that treats strategic partners and geopolitical rivals with the same transactional disdain, be they in Europe or Asia. But in chastising India for not having a more open economy and its energy ties to Russia, the Trump administration is punishing the very nation the US has spent years cultivating as a democratic counterweight to China's power – creating an opening for Beijing. This tactical realignment is underscored by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reported plans to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit later this month, which would be his first trip to China in seven years. When asked to confirm Indian media reports about Modi's attendance, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said Beijing 'welcomes' Modi for the meeting. 'We believe that with the concerted effort of all parties, the Tianjin summit will be a gathering of solidarity, friendship and fruitful results,' said spokesperson Guo Jiakun. Yet, as the niceties play out in public, analysts say this is an alliance of convenience, not conviction. The deep-seated strategic distrust between Asia's two giants, born from their border conflict and struggle for regional dominance, remains firmly in place. For now, they are aligned partly not by a shared vision, but by a shared antagonist in the White House. 'We may see a greater thaw in India-China ties in face of a tough United States,' said Farwa Aamer, Director of South Asia Initiatives, Asia Society Policy Institute. But she warned that New Delhi must not lose sight of Washington and 'risk reversing the growth in relations it has long worked hard on to achieve.' India's relationship with the US has undergone a dramatic transformation, from Cold War estrangement to crucial partners in the 21st Century. Since Modi, a right-wing Hindu nationalist, swept to power in 2014, the relationship reached new heights, partly driven by the personal rapport he developed with Trump during his first term, during which the Indian leader cast aside staid diplomatic protocol to campaign for his counterpart's second term during a rally in Houston. New Delhi's growing alignment with Washington became even more critical as its own relationship with Beijing cratered after deadly border clashes in 2020 pushed the two Asian giants further apart than at any time in decades. The US' commitment to India deepened under the Biden administration, which identified New Delhi as a vital counterweight to Beijing's growing influence. President Joe Biden often lavished praise on Modi, while largely setting aside sharp criticism from rights groups over the Modi administration's alleged democratic backsliding at home. But then came Trump's re-election, with a turbocharged 'America First' policy that looked far beyond confronting just China on trade. In a move that threatens to shatter this two-decade consensus, the US president publicly reprimanded New Delhi earlier this month over its Russian oil imports, calling the Indian economy 'dead' and singling out India for Washington's highest global tariff rate. With his new tariffs, Trump is punishing a country that currently imports 36% of its crude oil from Russia, much of it used to support its booming economy and growing 1.4 billion-strong population. But by treating New Delhi a transactional adversary to be punished, Washington risks shattering a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific strategy, said Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow, South Asia Program at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Trump's latest actions, 'take us right back to that era of estrangement,' he said. 'The US-India relationship is robust enough that it won't be undone overnight, but these moves have created a massive trust deficit on the Indian side.' While many nations have rushed to strike trade deals with Trump to lower tariffs, India under Modi has been less willing to cave. India shot back, calling the tariffs 'unfair' and 'unjustified,' pointing out the hypocrisy of Trump's move and noting that the US and Europe still buy Russian fertilizers and chemicals. Trump has repeatedly called India a 'tariff king,' but a senior Indian official said the country is 'far from' it, noting that India imposes 'zero to low duties on many key US exports' including coal, pharmaceuticals, aircraft parts and machinery. India imposes some higher tariffs on the US than vice versa, particularly on agricultural imports that attract a simple average tariff of 39% compared to the US's 5%, according to a report from the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. The 'mood (toward the US) is hardening in India, partly because of the way Mr. Trump has gone about and played his cards,' said Harsh V. Pant, vice president of foreign policy at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank. 'The way he does diplomacy through public channels, and the way he seems intent on reducing the space for the Modi government to maneuver.' Modi, who was under pressure by opposition politicians to stand up to his long-term friend, defended his country at an event last week. India will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen and dairy farmers,' he said. 'I know personally, I will have to pay a heavy price for it, but I am ready for it.' The unintended consequences of Trump's policies, analysts say, have the potential to push historic rivals New Delhi and Beijing into a strategic embrace. There has been a gradual normalization of ties between India and China after Modi met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia last October. India and China agreed to resume direct commercial flights, Beijing recently agreed to reopen two pilgrimage sites in western Tibet to Indians for the first time in five years, and both started re-issuing tourist visas for each other's citizens. 'For its own economic reasons, namely a slowdown in growth and a slump in foreign direct investment, India has signaled a greater willingness to entertain warmer trade and investment linkages with China,' said Vaishnav, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But this convergence remains limited by the deep-seated mistrust between them, rooted in their deadly border clashes in the Himalayas and China's strategic entrenchment in Pakistan. Vaishnav predicted the future would be one of duality: 'I expect we will see increasing economic cooperation coupled with strategic rivalry,' he said of the relationship between India and China. Washington's willingness to antagonize a key partner like India has also baffled observers. One view is that the Trump administration lacks a clear, overarching strategy, diminishing India's crucial role as a democratic counterweight to China. 'There is no coherent China policy in this administration,' said Vaishnav. 'Which means India's role as a bulwark against China is under-emphasized.' He added that as Trump's mood on Russia soured, 'India's Russian oil imports became an easy target.' A more personal motivation may also be at play. Analysts suggest Trump's hostility could have been triggered by a bruised ego after India downplayed his alleged role in defusing a major crisis with Pakistan. Trump announced he had brokered a ceasefire following a military escalation between the nuclear-armed neighbors in May. While Islamabad publicly praised the claim and even nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize, Indian officials refused to credit Washington's apparent intervention. 'After that, things went belly up,' Pant said. 'The (trade) deal which at one point seemed very doable, kept on going. And the more frustrated Mr. Trump has become, the more voluble he has become in terms of his public threats to India.' Critics say Trump's policies could be leading to the very outcome some US strategists have long sought to avoid. 'It could be the worst outcome for the United States,' Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton told CNN's Kaitlan Collins. 'The irony here is that while the secondary tariffs against India are intended to hurt Russia, it could push India back closer to Russia and, ironically, closer to China, perhaps negotiating together against the US tariff efforts.'
The Guardian
28-07-2025
- Entertainment
- The Guardian
My Worst Enemy review – Iranian exile recreates torture and interrogation in study of regime power
Film-maker Mehran Tamadon is preoccupied with the question of conscience, especially in contexts of extreme power imbalance. An Iranian exiled in France, he has made documentaries about the most fervent supporters of the Islamic regime, starting with Bassidji in 2009. In 2012, Tamadon was detained by Iranian authorities for hours of questioning, and though he was subsequently released, he became persona non grata in his home country. Now the director has turned to the tools of film-making to try to lay out a path for a return. He gathered a group of fellow exiles, with whom he re-created the lengthy interrogation sessions they once endured. His hope was that that final film would stir introspection, and even empathy, in the hearts of their former tormenters. This idea was, in truth, a naive one – as is his directorial approach. In the beginning, we see Iranian refugees take turns cross-examining Tamadon in various abandoned buildings in Paris. These role-playing scenarios, however, pale in comparison to the testimony of exiles, who speak of harrowing abduction and torture that unfolded over months, if not years. In contrast, there are no real stakes to the reenactment, which wraps up in a matter of hours. Tamadon's film only gains political heft when Zar Amir Ebrahimi, the acclaimed star of Holy Spider, joins the experiment. Her probing questions, delivered in character as an intelligence officer, expose the various ethical issues surrounding Tamadon's practice. Not only does role-playing reveal little about methods of autocratic control, such exercises may well re-traumatise victims of state violence. Framed in intimate, handheld cinematography, the tense two-day session between Tamadon and Ebrahimi bristles with a taut energy and Tamadon commendably builds the bulk of the film on these critiques, turning My Worst Enemy into an act of self-interrogation. It becomes a work about failure, and ultimately the limitations of cinematic techniques in dissecting and analysing systematic abuse. My Worst Enemy is on True Story from 1 August.
ABC News
23-07-2025
- Entertainment
- ABC News
Are Professor Student Relationships Ever Ok? w/ Madison Griffiths
When it comes to professor student relationships, a lot of people argue 'if everyone's an adult' and 'if everyone's consenting' there's nothing wrong with the dynamic. But Author Madison Griffiths disagrees. In this chat with Dee Salmin, Madison unpacks her new book Sweet Nothing which explores four women's experiences dating and sleeping with their professors - and how gender and power imbalances make the relationships so much more nuanced than consent. SHOW NOTES: LifeLine: 13 11 14 1800 Respect: 1800 737 732 DM us your thoughts, questions, topics, or to just vent at @triplejthehookup on IG or email us: thehookup@ The Hook Up is an ABC podcast, produced by triple j. It is recorded on the lands of the Wurundjeri people of the Kulin nation. We pay our respects to elders past and present. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the land where we live, work, and learn.
Arab News
09-07-2025
- Politics
- Arab News
How Saudi Arabia is paving the way for Mideast security and stability
History, driven by geographical and geopolitical realities, has repeatedly revealed a clear and fundamental pattern: Imbalances of power often lead to conflict and widespread suffering. The Middle East, a region abundant in diversity, rich history, and untapped potential, cannot afford to fall into this trap. Saudi Arabia and other countries, through diplomacy and initiatives, such as Vision 2030, demonstrate how rational thinking, regional cooperation, and the pursuit of peace can provide a framework for stability and security. History offers valuable lessons on the dangers of power imbalances. For instance, the collapse of Sparta in ancient Greece serves as a stark warning. When one player becomes overwhelmingly powerful, it inevitably triggers unified resistance. When Sparta emerged as the hegemonic power in Greece following the Peloponnesian War, many of its allies grew resentful of its heavy-handed policies and began to rebel. This growing dissatisfaction, combined with internal strife, economic stagnation, and rival coalitions, led to Sparta's downfall. The Napoleonic Wars provide another striking example of how the hegemonic ambitions of a single power can unite others against it, leading to widespread conflict and immense costs for all involved. Napoleon Bonaparte sought to establish French hegemony over Europe by conquering and subjugating other nations, thereby disrupting the balance of power on the European continent. In response, a series of coalitions — comprising Britain, Prussia, Austria, Russia and others — formed to counter his ambitions. Although Napoleon's military genius allowed him to dominate much of Europe for years, his aggressive policies and disregard for diplomacy ultimately united his rivals. This unity, however, came at a great cost: the Napoleonic Wars devastated entire regions, drained economies, and caused millions of deaths. After Napoleon's defeat, the Congress of Vienna faced the monumental task of restoring stability. While it succeeded in establishing a new balance of power in 1815, Europe remained deeply scarred. These scars were crucial to bringing stability because there was the fear of the immense costs of war. In other words, peace in Europe was maintained because the Europeans, especially Prussia, were determined to preserve the balance of power out of fear for their own existence. Similarly, the Second World War provides a stark example of the dangers of upsetting regional stability. Nazi Germany, under Adolf Hitler, sought to establish hegemony over Europe, disrupting the balance of power and plunging the world into the deadliest conflict in human history. This destabilization forced even distant powers, such as the US, to intervene, joining forces with the Soviet Union and the UK against Germany at an immense human and economic cost. The war left tens of millions dead and entire regions in ruin, proving again that the unchecked pursuit of power is disastrous for all involved. These historical examples underscore the dangers of allowing a single player to disrupt the balance of power in a system. In the context of the Middle East, it serves as a powerful reminder that rational decision-making, collaboration, and commitment to peace are needed to avoid similar cycles of conflict and destruction. In the Middle East, where tensions unfortunately run deep from time to time, allowing such an imbalance to arise could be catastrophic — not only for the weaker players. If all players in the Middle East prioritize rational decision-making over short-term gains, they will see that true power lies not in hegemonic policies but in collaboration. The region holds immense potential for prosperity if its resources, human capital, and diverse cultures are harnessed and aligned under a unified vision for peace. The end of what US President Donald Trump has labeled the '12-Day War' between Iran and Israel, which concluded 16 days ago, is possibly a flicker of hope for the beginning of a new era of peace and stability. It reminds rational actors in the region of the power of dialogue. The Middle East can draw valuable lessons from history, particularly from Otto von Bismarck, the 19th-century statesman who unified Germany and maintained peace in Europe through pragmatic diplomacy and strategic alliances. Similarly, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reflects a modern approach to fostering security and stability in the region. By prioritizing diplomacy, cooperation, economic integration and innovation over conflict, Saudi Arabia is showing how states can achieve shared prosperity. This framework, as the only significant plan currently in place, can help all players strengthen their economic relationships. It offers a sustainable path forward, where collaboration ensures peace and progress for the entire region.
