Who 'Survived ‘Til '25'? Taking The Temperature Of The International Television Industry As Sector Wrestles With Strike Hangover & Financial Strife

Yahoo

28-01-2025

Last year, the phrase 'Survive 'til '25' could be heard echoing around confab halls, screening rooms and production offices the world over. Now we have reached the year in question, who made it through? Deadline has spent recent weeks exploring developments in key territories to take the temperature of what is being positioned by so many as a crucial year for the future of the industry, as the American market continues to contract. As is pretty much always the case, we have discovered a nuanced picture, with a more upbeat feel in some territories than the downbeat mantra may suggest, but weak TV advertising markets plus financing and co-production challenges are weighing heavily on others. Read on to discover what we learned from the UK, Canada, South Africa, France, Australia and India.
The UK
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The year in the world of UK TV has started with mini-crisis, with the BBC acknowledging publicly that it has multiple scripted shows stuck in funding limbo. Eyebrows have been raised skywards by the admission and it has been the talk of production circles, a clear indicator of the state of play. The UK is one of the key originators behind the 'Survive 'til '25' mantra, yet producers we speak with feel that this year won't be too different from the last in terms of getting shows commissioned amid budget woes. When Hollywood sneezes, the UK catches a cold, so to speak, and the financial shifts brought on by the streaming rethink, plus the devastating wildfires and labor strike hangovers, mean that Americans' lack of interest in British projects is having serious knock-on effects. Hence the BBC's funding admission. 'We're probably now 'Staying Alive 'Til '26,'' says John McVay, who runs UK producer trade body Pact and predicts this year will kick off with a similar feel to Q4 2024. 'I don't see any significant change. When looking at the economics, there's nothing saying, 'We've got amazing growth, people are feeling flush.'' McVay worries for the immediate future of his members — the hundreds of production companies located around the UK. In scripted, American buyers are being incredibly choosy, to the point of absence, with what they co-produce, which is burning a hole in the market. 'Distributors are now operating under the assumption that there is no American money [for TV projects],' one prominent British drama producer tells Deadline. There are some hopes that the gamechanging high-end TV tax credit will be strengthened in line with last year's landmark 40% indie film relief but, with the new Labour government not exactly splashing the cash, these hopes are slim. International co-pros, especially with big European players, could therefore become even more crucial. In non-scripted, traditional production outfits are continuing to grapple with the 'squeezed middle' — spotlighted so relentlessly at last year's Edinburgh TV Festival — as buyers commission only top-end premium factual shows (think The Traitors) and lower-cost, high-volume returnable fare to beef up their streaming services and daytime linear schedules. This development continues to have ramifications for producers. These producers are highly skilled and there has always been a 'give us a problem and we'll fix it' vibe to British TV, but getting to the end of 2025 will be no piece of cake.
India
India's TV market is facing a reset after several years of intense spending from the SVoDs. Just as producers in the west have found buyers increasingly discerning and risk-averse in the hunt for hits, there is little room for incredibly expansive ideas in India. Police procedurals and action thrillers now dominate, along with light and soapy dramas and comedies about modern life. Sources in the production biz talk about how major events such as Netflix's share price fall of 2022 and the U.S. labor strikes have transformed a fevered market into one defined by conservatism. As one veteran producer says: 'The Sony-Zee merger didn't happen, HBO and Peacock didn't even show up… Then Disney and Jio merged. It's been quite a couple of years all put together.' However, things are looking more settled in 2025, and producers with market nous sense opportunity. 'Everyone is now focused on looking forwards,' says Sameer Nair, CEO of Scam producer Applause Entertainment. 'We know the game now, but we need to remember that the audience is used to a certain level of quality.' That notion has been playing out at the start of this year, which has begun with two early hits: Applause's Netflix police drama Black Warrant and the much-anticipated second season of the Jaideep Ahlawat-starring Paatal Lok, whose first season in 2020 was a bonafide hit, reaching global top 10 lists on Prime Video around the world. 'Black Warrant has given us a terrific start to the year,' says Nair. Paatal Lok showrunner Sudip Sharma says the market is 'cooling down,' after years of 'overheating' in the Indian market. 'In some ways, it is mirroring what is happening in the U.S. TV industry after the pandemic,' he adds. The problem for India, say insiders, is that the huge investment from streamers and their desire to reach the dozens and dozens of local languages, stretched a production market that was really only geared up for Bollywood productions, which almost work to a different visual and stylistic code. The biggest local market shift, overall, last year was the merger of Disney India and Reliance Industries' media operations, which resulted in the creation of JioStar. Now in the same stable are streamers Disney+ Hotstar and JioCinema, multiple TV networks and several production operations, giving the new entity a huge chunk of the pie. Producers will hope such a powerful new player will result in more business in a settling landscape, but as Radhika Gopal, Head of the Writers and Directors department at L.A.- and Mumbai-based Tulsea, notes, this has actually reduced the market further. 'If two years ago there were 10 platforms, now there are three,' she says.
Canada
It may be about to become the '51st State' (or not), but Canada's TV community appears to have entered 2025 with a renewed sense of optimism. This, local industry figures say, is due to a reversal of the problem the UK is encountering, with Canada able to take advantage of the American industry malaise rather than lose out. Having spent the past two years being an 'ambassador' for the Canadian industry, Cineflix Productions boss JC Mills says the local workforce is now helping its North American cousin 'fill gaps in cost-effective programming,' while helping with the more expensive co-pro stuff. 'Americans want to take big swings and need capital-efficient, cost-effective performers that are very likely not being made in the U.S.,' he explains. Justin Stockman, who runs content for Letterkenny streamer Crave, says there is a 'real opportunity' for Canadians to strike deals with big American players and 'pool our money,' as he points to Crave-owner Bell Media's recent scripted tie-up with Lionsgate and Seth Rogen's Point Grey. 'Americans are producing here like crazy as culturally we are an easier fit than others,' adds Stockman. Crave was 'profitable earlier than other streaming services' and will ergo commission at the same volume this year as it did in 2024, he notes. While the Online Streaming Act continues to do little to convince U.S. streamers to commission out of Canada in bulk, 2025 will see Rogers Communications take on Warner Bros. Discovery lifestyle and factual channels, which Mills says adds another 'well-capitalized buyer' into the local mix alongside Bell, CBC and against-the-ropes commercial net Corus. With the local actors union reaching a tentative agreement over Christmas with producers that could pave the way for a year free of union strife, things feel a tad rosier than past years for Canada. Does Donald Trump's White House return strike fear over the future of its TV industry? 'I'd have to imagine that he has other things to focus on,' quips Mills.
South Africa
Streamer rowbacks hit South Africa hard in 2024. A nation brimming with skilled crew took a hit when Prime Video announced it would be scaling back locally to focus on Europe, while Netflix's global rethink also had an impact alongside the long tail of the American labor strikes, local producers say. The streamers' commitment to Africa had for a few years come in peaks and troughs, but Amazon's hasty semi-exit in particular, which led to layoffs, was tough for confidence. 'It felt like the South African industry really shrunk in 2024,' says Nicola van Niekerk, acting content chief at local streamer Showmax. 'People say competition can be bad, but I believe a strong industry is a robust industry.' Van Niekerk's employer MultiChoice, which owns Showmax, will itself generate headlines this year as Canal+'s quest to buy the South African pay-TV giant rumbles on. Locally, van Niekerk stresses that there is still plenty of work to go around and Showmax has high-profile originals incoming such as the latest Real Housewives of Durban and a South African version of NBC's Superstore, which will sit alongside the likes of International Emmy-nominated drama Reyka, but Tshepiso Chikapa-Phiri, chair of the local Independent Producers Organisation, remains worried about the skills base. She says some of the most experienced crew are leaving and seeking work in production hubs like Australia and Malta. 'Unfortunately for those that are mid-career or entry level they have to stay here and wait for the work,' adds Chikapa-Phiri, noting that due to South Africa's history of apartheid, this has an outsized impact on the Black TV community. Crew availability has not been helped by issues regarding the South African Television Production Incentive. Sources say projects are being given the go-ahead by the government to use the incentive, but feel that there is a hefty backlog and that claims are being processed slowly, denting confidence when producers are mulling where and when to set up projects. In response, the Department for Trade, Industry, and Competition insists there is no backlog. Chikapa-Phiri says she has seen green shoots, with more big-ticket projects setting up and a feeling that there is a bit more money around as the sector roots Amazon's exit firmly in the past. This would be about time too for one of the African continent's most crucial territories.
Spain
Unlike many other nations, Spain has been experiencing a production boom over recent years, as streamers seek Spanish-speaking subs through an original content strategy largely being driven out of Madrid. A Parrot Analytics study showed Spain has generated more than $5B for global streamers in the past five years, and Marc Roma, President of producers association ProTV, says there has been a 22% increase in Spanish productions on these platforms since 2021. Will it continue? 'We firmly believe so, given that success stories are not the exception and the Spanish industry has demonstrated its talent, reliability, and competitiveness on a global scale,' he says. Even so, PROA, the Spanish group that ProTV sits within, signed an international manifesto asking governments to regulate streaming platforms and 'allow us to correct the imbalances in commercial negotiations and retain control of intellectual property,' says Roma. At the same time various regional tax incentives and the country's varied locales are attracting overseas productions such as House of the Dragon. 'As a highly diverse territory, Spain is currently emerging as a key focus for the Hollywood industry,' says Alfonso Blanco, CEO and exec producer at Rapa and Weiss & Morales maker Portocabo. Patricia Neto, Director of Production at The Mediapro Studio, says 'tax incentives and government support have been of key importance in consolidating the sector and generating business.' For producers, the need is greater than just bringing foreign counterparts in, however, and international co-production is seen as vital, especially with global streamers and local broadcasters now open to rights-sharing deals. For the likes of pubcaster RTVE and commercial network Antena 3, 'This often involves giving up things that were once unthinkable, but now, with such fierce competition, certain concessions can be made to stay afloat,' says Raimon Masllorens, CEO of Brutal Media, the company behind Netflix miniseries Bank Under Siege that was sold to BBC Studios in March 2024. Meanwhile, The Mediapro Studio, behind the likes of Yosi, The Regretful Spy and Consuelo, launched an L.A. division in one of the more attention-grabbing moves of last year. Another key development is the appointment of José Pablo López Sánchez as President of RTVE, which production sources say heap praise upon following years of instability linked to Spain's government. 'That had made it very difficult for consolidation and dialogue,' says Roma. 'Fortunately, RTVE has now entered another phase, in which its presidency and direction are confirmed, and it is expected it will be able to work with a medium-term view and strategic calm.'
Australia
The Australian industry sits at a crossroads. While the country's plethora of enticing incentives, beautiful locales and skilled production crews are attracting international productions, local broadcasters are facing a battle for the future as digital rivals draw eyeballs away from their shows. The ABC's management changes suggest there's no real consensus on how to move forwards yet. Streaming regulation was due to begin last year, but is still not in operation, making global streamers reticent to commit budget (though Netflix's investment is widely praised by our sources), commercial networks Seven, Nine and Ten are proceeding cautiously in the face of a troubled TV ad market and pubcasters ABC and SBS are under-resourced. In fact, many producers last year said they were at an historic low point in terms of local work. 'It's a story of inconsistency — created by the absence of the regulation,' says Matthew Deaner, CEO of industry body Screen Producers Australia. 'Some businesses have continued to be incredible partners, but others have fallen away, doing a bare minimum of activity in the market.' Daryl Talbot, Executive Director of indie production group WTFN, notes the networks are trying to reinvent themselves in a difficult market with various degrees of success. His unscripted company had a strong year thanks to both returning productions and a 'total distribution' model that has provided diversified revenues: 'We went from building houses to building houses, owning them and renting them out,' he posits. However, most production sources point to a lack of clarity about what's round the corner, even though there are plenty of strong local shows being made: See Prime Video's much-anticipated drama The Narrow Road to the Deep North (set to premiere at Berlin), Netflix's recent Neo-western series Territory, Stan trio Population 11, Black Snow and the soon-to-launch Invisible Boys, and Binge's The Twelve and Colin From Accounts. Still, budgets are shrinking and co-production money is less readily available due to U.S. contraction. 'Australia relies very heavily on international finance, from big Western territories primarily,' confirms Kylie du Fresne, co-CEO of Black Snow maker Goalpost Pictures. Thankfully, while American companies have almost completely stopped investing in British productions, the likes of The CW and Roku have partnered with Stan on several shows, such as the upcoming Good Cop/Bad Cop. With scripted budgets an estimated 10-15% lower than other English-language markets, this is a less risky investment. Elsewhere, the big change coming is that Foxtel, the pay-TV parent of streamer Binge, is being sold to sports streamer DAZN. Producers are keeping eyes peeled for what that means at the Colin From Accounts company.
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