Tropical Storm Erin is tracking across the Atlantic. Where is it heading?
While there's a low chance of a direct strike to the United States, it's not certain that the system will remain on an out-to-sea track.
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an hour ago
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Utah narrowly missed its driest July on record. Can this week break its dry stretch?
July is typically one of Utah's driest months, but last month narrowly missed a 125-year-old record that explains how drought conditions have worsened as quickly as they have statewide. Utah collected an average of 0.25 inches of precipitation last month, well short of the nearly inch of rain it averaged during the 20th century, according to data released by the National Centers for Environmental Information. It also ended up the second-driest July since statewide data was first collected in 1895 — just 0.05 inches above the record-low collected in July 1900. Last month was also 2.7 degrees above the average, but not as hot as the last few years. Its average of 74.2 degrees Fahrenheit tied for 17th warmest July on record, while the previous three years remain among the 10 hottest on record. Utah's meteorological summer — the combination of June, July and August — could ultimately break a record that was also set in 1900. Paired with June, which was the state's 34th driest on record, this summer is on track for its fifth-driest on record. The state needs to collect more than a third of an inch overall statewide by the end of August to avoid the 125-year-old record low of 0.88 inches statewide. The numbers reflect a predominant pattern that has kept Utah warm, dry and windy so far this summer. The traditional pattern that often brings oceanic moisture to Utah — typically from mid-July through August — has mostly set up farther south and east than it normally does, meaning that more storms have ended up in areas south and east of Utah, Sam Webber, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told last week. A series of low-pressure patterns also set up over the Pacific Northwest, but none of those ended up in Utah. As such, many Utah cities have experienced long periods without rain. Salt Lake City hasn't received measurable rain since July 4. Even southern Utah communities more likely to receive monsoonal rains in the summer — like Monticello and Cedar City — have not received measurable rain in over three weeks. All of this has shown up on the drought map. About 70% of Utah was in drought at the end of May, including 46% in severe or extreme drought. The whole state is now in drought, including 66% in severe or extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Utah's reservoir system also dropped from 86% capacity in June to 70% by the start of this week, per state data. Monsoonal return? Monsoonal rain is back in Utah's forecast this week, which could break up some of the state's dry streaks, but it's unclear yet how beneficial the storms will be. A high-pressure system coming into Utah via the Pacific Coast will first create more hot and dry conditions for the first half of this week. It will then help bring in monsoonal moisture as it continues moving east, crossing the Four Corners during the second half of the week, said KSL meteorologist Devan Masciulli. The way the system is forecast to move is expected to create a more traditional monsoonal setup, possibly creating isolated showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Many parts of the state have a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation on Thursday and Friday, as it's difficult to project where monsoonal showers will set up or how much a storm will deliver. The only problem is that weather forecast models aren't overly optimistic about Utah's precipitation totals. Northeast Utah and parts of south-central Utah could end up with the highest totals by the end of the week, projected to be closer to 0.5 inches, according to the National Weather Service. That could bring decent moisture over the Monroe Canyon and Beulah fires burning in those two regions. But with less moisture in the models, Masciulli points out that storms could lead to more microbursts and dry thunderstorms — two elements that can spark new fires and spread existing ones. It's something that meteorologists and firefighters will both track this week. Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center. Solve the daily Crossword
Yahoo
2 hours ago
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This is our second-worst wildfire season on record — and could be the new normal
This year's wildfire season is already the second-worst on record in Canada, and experts are warning that this might be the new normal. More than 7.3 million hectares have burned this year so far, more than double the 10-year average for this time of year, according to the latest figures from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) and Natural Resources Canada. "It's the size of New Brunswick, to put it into context," Mike Flannigan, a professor of wildland fire at Thompson Rivers University, told CBC News. The last three fire seasons are among the 10 worst on record, according to a federal database dating back to 1972, with 2023's devastating blazes taking the top spot. "I've never seen three bad fire seasons in a row," Flannigan, who has been studying fires since the '70s, said. "I've seen two in a row: '94, '95. I've never seen three. This is scary." Manitoba and Saskatchewan account for more than half the area burned so far, but British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario are all also well above their 25-year averages. Fire bans have been announced in multiple provinces, including a total ban on going in the woods in Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, the military and coast guard were called in to help fight fires in Newfoundland and Labrador this week. Around 1,400 international firefighters have also helped fight Canadian fires so far this year, according to the CIFFC. Scientists say that climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, has created longer fire seasons and drier landscapes, sparking more intense and widespread forest fires. "I used to always say… some years are cooler and wetter and we will get quiet years," Flannigan said. "But maybe every year's going to be a bad fire year now." Dry conditions across the country have allowed fires to quickly balloon this fire season. "The forests of Canada are too dry, too hot," Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips told CBC News. "This year… there's no kind of reprieve from what we've seen." This year has seen notable blazes in regions where we haven't historically, such as Newfoundland and Labrador, where one fire has grown to over 5,200 hectares. Yan Boulanger, a research scientist in forest ecology at Natural Resources Canada, says Newfoundland "is not used to [seeing] huge fires." "But we will have to get more and more used to it, because those ecosystems are also projected to see an increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades." The other outlier is Quebec, which was one of the hardest-hit provinces in 2023, when an estimated 4.5 million hectares burned. This year, the province has had a much milder fire season, thanks to frequent precipitation in the spring and early summer, Boulanger says. But a sudden bout of dry conditions in August, usually a quiet fire month for the province, has experts recommending vigilance. Consequences of repeated fires Bad back-to-back fire seasons can have huge consequences. Fire is a natural part of the lifecycle for many tree species, but a forest can become damaged to the point where trees cannot regrow in the area for years, or even decades. It's called "regeneration failure." "The problem is when we have too much fire and we are getting out of what we are calling the natural variability of the system," Boulanger said. "When such things happen… the forest can lose its resilience." Scientists are already seeing it in regions of Quebec that were heavily damaged in 2023, and in parts of the Northwest Territories and Alberta, Boulanger says. Right now, around 300,000 to 400,000 hectares are affected by regeneration failure in Quebec. Fewer trees means less carbon being stored, exacerbating the problem of increased emissions that occur during widespread forest fires. The 2023 fires produced nearly a quarter of the year's global wildfire carbon emissions. Meanwhile, wildfire smoke has been linked to a myriad of health complications, including a higher risk of dementia. WATCH | Calls picking up for a national wildfire agency: With intense wildfires becoming an annual problem in Canada on a new scale, we need more strategies, experts say. The Canadian Association of Fire Chiefs (CAFC) has called on Ottawa to establish a national forest fire co-ordination agency to ensure that personnel and equipment can be distributed across the country when different regions are seeing heavy fires, and that fire chiefs are at the table when national policies are made. The government has been studying the possibility of creating a national disaster response agency since 2023, and met with CAFC to discuss it in December. But it's time to move beyond the planning stage, according to Ken McMullen, the organization's president and fire chief in Red Deer, Alta. "All parties are saying that they think it's a good idea. The reality is nobody's helped pick up the ball and get it across the finish line," he said. Flannigan, at Thompson Rivers University, supports the idea, but believes we need to go further and create a robust national emergency management agency that would be able to provide training for fighting wildfires, forecast where fires are likely to occur and whether they're a danger, and then move resources there proactively. "Yes, it's going to cost money, but if it prevents one Jasper, one Fort McMurray, it pays for itself," he said, referring to the Alberta communities ravaged in recent years by fires. "The status quo doesn't seem to be working. We're spending billions and billions of dollars on fire management expenditures, but our area burned has quadrupled since the 1970s."
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Forecast to strengthen into 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 by late Thursday
Still great uncertainty around what impact Erin will have on the U.S. East Coast, NHC forecasters say. Tropical Storm Erin is likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and a major one at that, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is quickly moving westward. During the course of this week, it's expected to strengthen. The NHC said there is still great uncertainty about what might occur in parts of the U.S. East Coast, the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas next week, but added that now is a good time to make sure preparedness plans are in place. Where is Tropical Storm Erin, and what is its path? As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday: Erin was located 950 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. The storm was quickly moving toward the west at 22 mph and is expected to continue through early Thursday. "A slightly slower westward motion is expected tonight through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend," the NHC said in a Tuesday evening update. What are the chances it will intensify? The NHC's intensity forecast shows Tropical Storm Erin could become a hurricane by late Thursday, according to the agency's Tuesday evening forecast discussion. "Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane by day 5 (early Sunday)," the NHC forecasts. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Maximum sustained winds of 115 mph mean it would be considered a Category 3 major hurricane, according to the NHC. Watches and warnings in place As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect. "Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands," the NHC said Tuesday. "However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm." How is hurricane season shaping up? The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal. Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 and 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph). A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season and there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Erin.
