Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Forecast to strengthen into 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 by late Thursday
Tropical Storm Erin is likely to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and a major one at that, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is quickly moving westward. During the course of this week, it's expected to strengthen. The NHC said there is still great uncertainty about what might occur in parts of the U.S. East Coast, the Greater Antilles and the Bahamas next week, but added that now is a good time to make sure preparedness plans are in place.
Where is Tropical Storm Erin, and what is its path?
As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday:
Erin was located 950 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.
The storm was quickly moving toward the west at 22 mph and is expected to continue through early Thursday. "A slightly slower westward motion is expected tonight through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend," the NHC said in a Tuesday evening update.
What are the chances it will intensify?
The NHC's intensity forecast shows Tropical Storm Erin could become a hurricane by late Thursday, according to the agency's Tuesday evening forecast discussion. "Continued strengthening is forecast after that time, and the NHC forecast continues to show Erin becoming a major hurricane by day 5 (early Sunday)," the NHC forecasts.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
Maximum sustained winds of 115 mph mean it would be considered a Category 3 major hurricane, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place
As of 5 p.m. ET Tuesday, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
"Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands," the NHC said Tuesday. "However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm."
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 and 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season and there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Erin.
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