SARB's Kganyago on South Africa Inflation Target, Policy
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Are you a little bit less worried about inflation right now given oil prices have settled? I am not sure that one would say that oil prices have settled, but we are comfortable with the inflation trajectory. I think the central banks have done a real good job taming the great inflation of 2022. And what we didn't have figuring in our analysis was that there could be a shock and that that shock who actually come from and from policy in the form of of tariffs. But there was also a shock that comes as a result of the and the geopolitics. You said that the oil price has settled. It had been it had been all over in the past few weeks. You're right. I mean, I guess the the cease fire between Iran and Israel means that there was a little bit of comfort in the markets that we wouldn't see the spikes that we feared in those couple of days where there was a real flare up. Governor. Can you tell us what this means for a possible rate cut in July? I think that what you should worry about is what the inflation trajectory looks like. Then you will know where rates are going. I'm just one member of of that committee. I do not know. And the views that everybody will be willing in the in the committee, you go into the committee with a view and then you must be willing to be persuaded because the other committee members which have different views, we have a fairly robust, robust debate. What we have heard so far has been that inflation has been has been contained at the lower end of our our inflation target range. And this actually has given us an opportunity of what central bankers call opportunistic disinflation, that which means that you use a low inflation environment to anchor inflation expectations at that level. But government for you personally, do you think there is scope to cut next month, this month or no? Come on, Francine. Of course, you know what the answer is. If you wait until the end of the meeting this month, you will know. You will know which way the rates are going. Okay. I'm not very good at waiting, nor is the market, but we'll do that. Governor, look, the South African Reserve Bank has also made a pretty forceful argument for adopting lower inflation targets, which has been undergoing a review. Is now the right time? Well, this work has been done, Francine. When the framework was introduced, there was always an understanding that we are going to to lower the target. We did lower the target, but there was a shock and we made a big policy mistake by reverting to the old inflation target instead of explaining that we experienced a shock and that we will come back within the target in 2020. Then the National Treasury launched a macro review, and part of that macro review included a revision of the monetary policy and the inflation target. And one of the recommendations was that the inflation target should be lowered to 2 to 3%. Since then, further wink had been done between the and the Treasury and the South African Reserve Bank. Our teams had been working very hard. We are finetuning the final details and they make them make recommendations to the minister and in the governor. What is in no doubt is that our inflation target is range is wide, it is too high, it is out of line with our peers. And we could only if there is a revision to revision can only be lower. So, Governor, what are you expecting actually for that to be finalized and presented to the finance minister? Well, the work is being done by by the team. It should be it should be very soon that that is finalized. I think that it is important. We have impressed on the team there is an opportunity right now of using, as I have said, opportunistic disinflation, and that the sooner we finalize that, the better. Governor, Why? Absolutely. Make sure that you have the support of the finance minister. I mean, if you say that you're aiming for a lower target, that would also do the job. Yes, it will do the job. But these things always work because you have to mobilise to the whole of government in society around the target. And this particular minister is a big advocate of a central bank, Independence is a big advocate of prudent macro macro economic management, and it's very important that he is on board and helps us articulate that and bring society on board with respect to the way inflation. So it's more powerful. Governor, when do you expect to be away from restrictive monetary policy, given everything that's going on? Well, in May we presented as part of our statement, we presented a scenario and that scenario included what are the. Policy trajectory would look like under a lower inflation target. And its study shows that we would be able to have lower nominal rates as a result of the lowering of the target. And so there would then thus be a benefit. I think that as it stands now, the where we are with policy is broadly in line with a neutral we are fairly, fairly close. And I think that the analysts will say to you that if we reach a nominal rate of 7%, we are in neutral territory, so we are restricted, but so are many other central banks around the world. And he just reflects the fact that we have got so much uncertainty about the trajectory of inflation, given the volatility that we had. So do you also think of scenarios? It was interesting to hear the ECB actually in their strategic review going, you know, there are so many more risks that communication has to encompass. Of course, all of that uncertainty going forward. Yes, I think scenarios are useful, but they bring with them a big communication challenge because the public might look at a scenario. And if it is a scenario that they think they find attractive, they almost like, say, so why don't you do things so that that scenario plays out. But for us as policymakers, the scenario just helps us see to society, to the public that am here is our baseline. But this baseline could have risks and even the risks materialize. This is how we think the outlook for the future trajectory it would look like. And it is a very powerful communication, if appropriately used.
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