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Resuming flights, visas and more… Are India and China inching toward an all-out thaw?
Indian school students pose with their faces painted with India's (R) and China's national flags. Relations between the two countries are on the mend. File image/AFP
The world is in a constant flux. Nations that were once friends turn foe, foes become friends — and China and India aren't immune from this. After years of bickering and contestation, they are now exploring yet another round of engagement.
At least, the recent steps taken by the two countries indicate a thaw in ties. The most recent of these being India and China set to resume direct flights as soon as September, with the formal announcement to come around the time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits the neighbour at the end of August.
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We take a closer look at all the indicators that signal an all-out thaw and if this current rapprochement is merely opportunistic and temporary?
India-China flights to resume soon
On Tuesday evening (August 12) came the news that India and China are preparing to restart direct passenger flights as early as next month. News agency Reuters said that the Indian government has asked carriers such as Air India and IndiGo to be ready to operate flights to China at short notice.
Even Bloomberg reporting the same said that a formal announcement on the same would be made when Prime Minister Modi travels to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit at the end of August.
Air China planes sit on the tarmac at Beijing Airport in Beijing, China. File image/AP
Passenger flights between the two neighbouring countries were suspended after the Covid-19 pandemic, forcing travellers from India to China to pass through hubs like through Hong Kong or Singapore.
Before the suspension, India airlines such as Air India and IndiGo as well as Chinese airlines such as Air China, China Southern and China eastern ran services between the key cities of both countries.
Interestingly, this isn't the first time that India and China have attempted to restart direct flights. Such an endeavour was made in January as well as June, but stalled owing to diplomatic tensions.
Signs of an all-out thaw between India and China
The resuming of flights is just another indicator that India and China ties are back on following the Galwan clash of 2020. In a first since 2021, a cargo of Indian diesel is also heading to China. According to a Bloomberg report, a vessel sailed from the Nayara's Vadinar terminal with about 496,000 barrels of ultra-low sulphur diesel on July 18.
Moreover, earlier this month, it was announced that PM Modi would be attending the SCO summit in China's northern city of Tianjin between August 31 and September 1. The trip would be Modi's first to China in seven years and pave the way for him to meet President Xi Jinping for the first time since they came face to face in Russia 10 months ago.
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PM Modi and China's Xi Jinping are expected to meet at the SCO summit later this month. File image/AP
But that's not all. When US President Donald Trump announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on India for purchasing Russian oil, China expressed its support for New Delhi, saying, 'India's sovereignty is non-negotiable and its foreign policy choices cannot be manipulated by other countries, no matter how significant their own ties with India are.'
The spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in India also attached an illustration showing an elephant, representing India, and a baseball bat, representing the US tariff.
'India's sovereignty is non-negotiable and its foreign policy choices cannot be manipulated by other countries, no matter how significant their own ties with India are.'----Quoted from @the_hindu https://t.co/U0WT6bLPXM pic.twitter.com/8yDizYeEyM — Yu Jing (@ChinaSpox_India) August 6, 2025
There's also the fact that India has resumed issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens from July 24, following a five-year gap. Additionally, India and China have resumed the Kailash Mansarovar yatra.
The diplomatic thaw is also feeding economic hopes. In the last week of July, India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman hinted a possible revival of India-China business relations, saying, 'How far it will go is something we will have to wait and see.'
But all of this only occurred after India and China reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements and disengagement of troops along the Line of Actual Control last October. The two nations agreed upon a border plan — the Indian Army has secured the ability to patrol key points along the border, and Indian herders were able to resume grazing.
Last October, India and China reached an agreement on patrolling arrangements and disengagement of troops along the Line of Actual Control. File image/AFP
The Trump factor
But what has motivated India and China's rapprochement? The answer would be US President Donald Trump and geopolitics, especially the belief in New Delhi that Washington has shifted its position on Pakistan.
As a report by Foreign Policy noted that the Trump administration may be simultaneously moving closer to Beijing and Islamabad in order to peel Pakistan away from China. New Delhi, in turn, hopes that with its own pivot to China, it can exploit the first of these trends while preempting any negative fallout from the second.
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Even within the Chinese camp there's a suspicion over the Washington-Islamabad proximity. Questions are being asked if Washington is trying to disrupt the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or gain information on the efficacy of Chinese weapon systems in Pakistan's arsenal.
US President Donald Trump's tariff stance could dramatically change ties between India and China. File image/AFP
The fact that Trump has been going hard on India with its heavy tariffs has also led India to do a rethink on its ties with Washington. Trump has slapped a total tariff of 50 per cent on Indian goods, while the US president on Monday (August 11) extending the tariff truce with Beijing for another 90 days, staving off triple-digit duties on Chinese goods.
Even Biswajit Dhar, an economics professor at the Council for Social Development in Delhi, told South China Morning Post, 'I think he has pushed India and China closer together,' adding that US protectionism was a common concern for both Delhi and Beijing.
Challenges remain
But this rapprochement between India and China is fraught with complications. There still remains unresolved issues at the LAC.
Additionally, China's close relations with India's arch-rival Pakistan have been a source of concern for Delhi. China and Pakistan describe each other as 'all-weather strategic cooperative partners' with an ''ironclad'' friendship between them. This friendship extends to the military and nuclear domain – which India has repeatedly flagged. In fact, Operation Sindoor saw Pakistan use several Chinese weapons — Islamabad used Chinese-origin fighter jets, Chinese PL-15 missiles, and drones.
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While India and China are pushing forward together, there are obstacles in their way. File image/PTI
There's also China's construction of a mega dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which becomes the Brahmaputra upon reaching India, that has stoked anxieties in Delhi about water security. And this year, Beijing is also expected to begin work on a railway line linking Hotan in Xinjiang to Shigatse in Tibet this year. The artery is likely to cross from Aksai Chin and close to the G219 national highway, near the Line of Actual Control.
But as Dominic Rohner, an economics professor at the Geneva Graduate Institute and co-director of its Hoffmann Centre for Global Sustainability, noted to the South China Morning Post that the motivation for rapprochement was obvious.
'There are clear incentives to increase bilateral ties, yielding both economic and political benefits,' he said. 'While it is difficult to forecast what will happen, it is in these countries' interest to foster ties.'
With inputs from agencies
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