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European stocks that are likely to be winners and losers of the U.S.-EU trade agreement

European stocks that are likely to be winners and losers of the U.S.-EU trade agreement

CNBC4 days ago
European automakers and pharmaceutical companies are emerging as the immediate winners in the aftermath of the U.S.-EU trade deal agreed on Sunday. The new accord removes the overhang of more punitive tariffs, providing a relief rally to stocks in the sector. Under the agreement, details of which have not yet been revealed, exports from the European Union to the U.S. will incur a 15% tariff, ending months of uncertainty. The clarity has been welcomed by investors, with analysts calling it a "positive catalyst." European stocks are rising around 1% on the news. However, the deal leaves the steel and aluminum industry in a state of uncertainty. Winners The European auto industry is the deal's most prominent beneficiary. The 15% tariff on cars is a significant reduction from the 25% tariff some vehicles faced and far less damaging than other rates that had been feared. Analysts at JPMorgan noted that the market had already anticipated the positive step, which was reflected in the rising share prices of automakers and suppliers over the week. Volkswagen shares have risen 12% in the past week. Deutsche Bank analysts said the tariff news "masked ... very solid underlying [second quarter] results," and highlighted the company's strong European business in contrast to rivals. "We see potential for a blue sky scenario in which there is upside potential from tariffs and a mass market business setting itself apart from competitors in Europe," said Deutsche Bank's Tim Rokossa in a note to clients on Monday. "VW remains our top pick in the space." Other European carmakers are also poised to benefit. The 15% rate is seen as "manageable" by JPMorgan analysts, with companies expected to mitigate the impact through a combination of increased production in the U.S. and modest price hikes. The Wall Street bank highlighted that BMW and Porsche had raised prices between 2% and 4% to mitigate the cost of tariffs. JPMorgan also noted that Volvo Cars CEO had said that "its customers would have to pay a large part of tariff-related cost increases" in a note to clients on Monday. A dose of certainty The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is another winner, primarily because the deal removes significant uncertainty. For Sartorius, a laboratory equipment and consumables supplier, the deal "removed the last lingering concern over the impact of tariffs," according to JPMorgan. The company's exports to the U.S. already faced a 10% tariff. "We believe that a 5 percentage point increase in the tariff rate, will likely be managed through an increase in the tariff surcharges, resulting in a further 1% annualised boost to revenues and leaving the impact of tariffs as neutral on [adjusted profit for the company]," JPMorgan's Richard Vosser said in a note to clients on Monday. Losers The outlook for the steel and aluminum sector is far less clear. Though the EU said "tariffs will be cut" in the future, exports from the continent to the U.S. currently face 50% tariffs. That ambiguity leaves major producers like ArcelorMittal with a mixed outlook. JPMorgan analysts described the company's investment case as "stranded" between currently weak steel prices and the hope for a trade deal that would boost its pricing power. Hydro, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, told CNBC that tariffs at 50% — in place since June — "will not change the current market dynamics". "We are supporting free and fair trade. One of our concerns has been the risk of an escalating trade war that would put weight on the global economy, leading to lower aluminum demand," a Hydro spokesperson said. "With more certainty on the trade agreements, this will likely reduce this risk." Despite the initial euphoria on European stock markets, strategists at UBS suggest the deal is likely to be damaging in the long run. "Importantly, while the deal reduces uncertainty and the risk of an escalation, it cements a marked deterioration in European firms' export conditions to the US," said UBS economist Reinhard Cluse in a note to clients on July 28.
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Musk, a social media powerhouse, boosts fortunes of hard-right figures in Europe
Musk, a social media powerhouse, boosts fortunes of hard-right figures in Europe

Boston Globe

time13 minutes ago

  • Boston Globe

Musk, a social media powerhouse, boosts fortunes of hard-right figures in Europe

Even a little-known social-media influencer turned politician from Cyprus has benefited from the Musk effect. Before winning a surprise seat in the European Parliament, where he's advocated for Musk, the influencer seemed to have one ambition: to hug the world's richest man. He got his hug — and political endorsements. On days Musk has interacted with his account on X, the man's audience exploded from just over 300,000 to nearly 10 million views. Elon Musk may have tumbled from political grace in Washington -- he stepped down as an adviser to President Donald Trump in May and has since traded insults with the president -- but as he works to build his own political party, his power on X remains unchecked. Advertisement Musk's influence on the platform he bought for $44 billion has made him a kingmaker at home and abroad. Among those he has chosen to cultivate are hard-right politicians and insurgent influencers across Europe, according to an Associated Press analysis of public data. His dominance, which has real-world financial and political impacts, is fueling concerns in Europe about foreign meddling -- not from Russia or China this time, but from the United States. Advertisement 'Every alarm bell needs to ring,' said Christel Schaldemose, a vice president of the European Parliament who works on electoral interference and digital regulation. 'We need to make sure that power is not unbalanced.' In seeking to quantify Musk's effect on European politics, The Associated Press analyzed more than 20,000 posts over a three-year period from 11 far-right European figures across six countries who frequently promote a hard-right political or social agenda and had significant interactions with Elon Musk since he purchased Twitter. Tens of thousands of posts by Musk on Twitter, now known as X, were also collected. The AP used the records, obtained from data provider Bright Data, to analyze how Musk's account interacted with the European influencers, and vice versa, and the extent to which Musk's engagement boosted their reach. These case studies are not meant to be representative of a broad universe; rather, they showcase the ways in which Musk's engagement can have an impact on local influencers who share his views. Due to limitations on data collection, the dataset is not a complete record of all posts made by these accounts. Even so, it captured at least 920 instances in which one of the European accounts tagged, replied or otherwise attempted to interact with Musk's account, and at nearly 190 instances where Musk's own posts interacted with the Europeans. Advertisement The AP also analyzed records of daily follower counts, using data from Social Blade, to measure any growth in the European accounts' audience that occurred in the wake of Musk's online interactions. This kind of analysis is no longer possible. In March, Social Blade removed X from its analytics, saying that X had increased its data access fees to prohibitive levels, making the platform harder to research. Among those included in AP's analysis are several people who have run into legal trouble in their own countries. An anti-immigrant agitator in the U.K., for example, was sentenced in October to 18 months in prison for violating a court order blocking him from making libelous allegations against a Syrian refugee. A German politician was convicted last year of knowingly using a Nazi slogan in a speech. An Italian vice premier was acquitted in December of illegally detaining 100 migrants aboard a humanitarian rescue ship. Others examined by AP were an influencer known as the 'shieldmaiden of the far-right;' a German activist dubbed the 'anti-Greta Thunberg' now living in what amounts to political exile in Washington, D.C.; and two politicians who have advocated for the interests of Musk's companies as those firms seek to expand in Europe. AP's analysis shows how Musk is helping unite nationalists across borders in common cause to halt migration, overturn progressive policies and promote an absolutist vision of free speech. While his efforts have sparked backlash in some countries, Musk's promotion of a growing alliance of hard-right parties and individuals has helped rattle the foundation of a transatlantic bond that has guided U.S. and European relations for over eight decades. Engagement from Musk does not guarantee a surge in followers or page views. But AP found it can have a huge impact, especially on up-and-coming influencers. One account that began with around 120,000 followers when Musk took over Twitter in October 2022 topped 1.2 million by January of this year. Seven other European accounts saw six-figure increases in their follower counts over the same period. Advertisement Most of the 11 accounts examined saw triple-digit percentage increases in their followers. Even some that grew more steadily on their own before Musk interacted with them saw their follower counts rise sharply after he began engaging with their posts. Similarly, on days Musk interacted with a post, its account saw its views soar — in most cases, accruing two to four times as many views, with a few seeing boosts 30 or 40 times their normal daily viewership. Musk is not the only factor influencing the growth of these accounts, of course, but their rising fortunes are a measure of how the platform has evolved under his leadership. When Musk acquired X, he pledged to turn it into a haven for free speech, declaring himself a 'free speech absolutist.' AP's analysis adds to growing evidence that instead of serving as a neutral forum for free speech, X amplifies Musk's speech. This shift has given him sweeping power to direct people's attention. 'There's an extreme asymmetry in the way Musk is able to leverage and shape the platform,' said Timothy Graham, an associate professor in digital media at the Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia, who has studied data anomalies on X. 'There's an unequivocal sense when you go onto the site that you're entering Musk's kingdom.' Musk's megaphone: Bigger than Trump and Taylor Swift Since he acquired Twitter in 2022, Musk has come to dominate the platform. His followers have more than doubled, to more than 220 million — growth so tremendous that it easily outpaced the other Top 10 accounts. Not even Taylor Swift has been able to keep up. Advertisement Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose followers grew by 21 million — or 25% — from October 2022 through January, clocked a distant second. Donald Trump's followers grew by 14%, or around 12 million, while Taylor Swift mustered a mere 3% growth, or 3 million new followers. None of the other Top 10 accounts have shown such consistent follower growth, month after month, AP found. The result is a further concentration of power for the world's richest man, who now commands the most popular account on a social media platform used by hundreds of millions of people around the world. Given the opacity of the algorithms that power X, it's hard to determine with certainty what array of factors might be driving such unusual — and unusually consistent — growth in Musk's account. But researchers who have analyzed data patterns on X argue that the platform's algorithm has, at times, been altered to amplify Musk's voice. How X promotes content is a growing point of contention in Europe. In January, the European Union expanded its investigation of X to assess how the platform pushes content to users and why some material goes viral. In February, French prosecutors opened a separate investigation into X over allegations that Musk changed the platform's algorithms to promote biased content. Musk's public attacks on left-leaning politicians, support for hard-right policies and loose handling of facts have prompted rebukes from British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Italian President Sergio Mattarella, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre. Advertisement X did not respond to requests for comment. Musk is X's kingmaker Musk's dominance creates a strong incentive for people seeking to increase their clout — or their revenues, through the platform's monetization options — to exploit these network effects and try to get Musk to engage with their content. 'People know that he's gearing everything towards him,' said Graham, the digital media scholar in Australia. 'They're doing everything they can to get close to this person because he is the moneymaker.' Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, for example, has benefited from the Musk effect. AfD coleader Alice Weidel helped lead the party, which advocates for nationalist and anti-immigrant policies, to second place in German parliamentary elections in February. When Musk interacted with her account in the run-up to those elections, the average number of daily views she got rose from about 230,000 to 2.2 million. Germany's domestic intelligence agency in May classified Weidel's party as a right-wing extremist organization, which would subject the AfD to greater surveillance. The party, which maintains that it's a victim of politically motivated defamation, promptly filed a lawsuit against the move, which Musk, along with top U.S. officials blasted as an attack on free speech. The designation has been suspended pending judicial review. The AfD denies any association with Germany's Nazi past — though, in a chat with Musk livestreamed on X in January, Weidel falsely described Hitler as a 'communist, socialist guy.' The chat has gotten 16 million views. Musk also appeared at AfD rallies and endorsed the party in a German newspaper. AfD officials did not respond to requests for comment. Naomi Seibt, a German climate skeptic, pinged Musk nearly 600 times between October 2022 and Jan. 2025. Musk finally engaged in June 2024, when he asked her to explain why the AfD is so controversial in Germany. Since then, Musk has replied to, quoted or tagged Seibt more than 50 times, and her followers have grown by more than 320,000 since Musk took over the platform. On days Musk interacted with Seibt, her posts, on average, got 2.6 times as many views. 'I didn't intentionally 'invade' Elon's algorithm,' Seibt told AP. 'Obviously Elon has a lot of influence and can help share a message even with those who are usually glued to the legacy media, particularly in Germany.' Seibt said she's now living in the United States because she fears political persecution in Europe. 'Washington DC is the political heart of America and thus also the safest place for me to be,' she said. 'I fear the German state wants me locked up.' Musk has also boosted the influence of political insurgents in the U.K. Days before British national elections last July, Musk took to X to ask Nigel Farage, the leader of the populist Reform U.K. party: 'Why does the media keep calling you far-right? What are your policies?' Farage replied eagerly: 'Because we believe in family, country and strong borders. Call me!' Such interactions from Musk helped Farage more than triple his daily audience. Farage did not reply to requests for comment. In Spain, Rubén Pulido, a columnist for a newspaper published by the populist Vox party's think tank, hit the jackpot in August, when Musk responded to two posts in which he argued that rescue boats operated by nongovernmental organizations effectively help smugglers move migrants to Europe. Pulido's visibility soared. On days Musk engaged with him, his account got nearly 300,000 views — roughly three times more than usual. When Musk didn't interact with Pulido's account, the results were just as clear. In January, he again inveighed against migrant rescues and sought to get Musk's attention. 'Hi @elonmusk! Speak up,' he urged. Three weeks later, he tweeted: 'Perhaps @elonmusk might find this interesting.' That post garnered just 5,128 views. Pulido did not respond to requests for comment. While Musk helped boost the accounts of such fringe parties and rising influencers, his interactions did not provide as stark a benefit to more established politicians, AP found. That was true for both Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, whose ruling Brothers of Italy party has neo-fascist roots, and Dutch politician Geert Wilders, an anti-Islamic firebrand who has been called the Dutch Donald Trump. What happens on X doesn't always stay on X Musk's interactions online have spilled into political endorsements, policy advocacy -- and money. X helps users monetize their accounts, through ad revenue sharing and paid subscription programs as well as direct fundraising links. That means a surge in attention on X can bring a surge in revenue. Tommy Robinson, a British anti-immigration agitator who was released from prison in May, after serving a reduced sentence of seven months for contempt of court, has a link to his fundraising page on his X profile. Interactions from Musk more than doubled Robinson's daily views, from around 380,000 to nearly 850,000. Robinson — whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon — could not be reached for comment Radio Genoa, an account reportedly investigated by Italian authorities last year for allegedly spreading hate speech about migrants, used X to publicize a call for a GoFundMe campaign to raise money for legal defense. Radio Genoa has pinged Musk dozens of times over the last three years, and for good reason: On days Musk engaged with him, the views on his account doubled. Radio Genoa's followers surged from less than 200,000 before Musk's engagement to over 1.2 million. Radio Genoa could not be reached for comment. Eva Vlaardingerbroek -- a conservative Dutch political commentator dubbed the 'shieldmaiden of the far-right' whose account Musk has engaged with three dozen times -- uses X to solicit tips and has creator status, which allows her to charge subscription fees. So does Seibt, the German activist -- though she told AP her earnings from X aren't enough to sustain herself. Vlaardingerbroek did not respond to requests for comment. Musk has also advocated for Matteo Salvini, vice premier of Italy and the leader of the hard-right, anti-migrant League party. On X, Musk's interactions boosted Salvini's daily visibility more than fourfold. Offline, Salvini has urged Italy to move ahead with controversial contracts for Starlink and pushed back against EU efforts to regulate content on X. Before Fidias Panayiotou — a 25-year-old social media influencer from Cyprus with no political experience — won a surprise seat as an independent in the European Parliament last year, he spent weeks camped outside Twitter and Space X headquarters in a highly publicized quest to hug the world's richest man. In January 2023, his wish came true. Their embrace went viral. Soon, Musk was interacting with Panayiotou's posts on a variety of subjects, expanding his typical audience on X by more than 3,000%. Since taking his seat, Panayiotou -- whose positions often also reflect the views of Cyprus' traditional leftist establishment -- has praised X on the floor of the European Parliament, pushed back against regulations that impact the platform, and credited Musk with sparking his call to fire 80% of EU bureaucrats. Musk, evidently, was pleased. 'Vote for Fidias,' he posted on X, an endorsement that was viewed more than 11.5 million times. 'He is smart, super high energy and genuinely cares about you!' In July, after AP asked for comment, Panayiotou posted a video to dispel any impression that he was Musk's puppet. 'I don't have any relationship with Elon Musk,' he said. 'We haven't spoken at all since we hugged, neither through messages, nor by phone, and I've never invited him anywhere.' He said that Musk, unprompted, began reposting his content after he was elected to the European Parliament. 'I don't think it's a danger to democracy honestly that Elon Musk supports me,' Panayiotou explained in another video. 'I think this is the beauty of democracy.' Kessler reported from Washington. Menelaos Hadjicostis in Nicosia and Suman Naishadham in Madrid contributed to this report.

Dollar strong as Trump imposes new tariff rates; yen sinks to four-month low
Dollar strong as Trump imposes new tariff rates; yen sinks to four-month low

CNBC

time14 minutes ago

  • CNBC

Dollar strong as Trump imposes new tariff rates; yen sinks to four-month low

The dollar headed for its best week in almost three years against its major peers, maintaining momentum on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump set new tariff rates on dozens of trade partners. The yen touched a four-month low against the greenback, extending its steep decline from Thursday after the Bank of Japan signaled it was in no hurry to resume interest rate hikes. In trade-related moves, the U.S. currency gained ground on the Swiss franc after Trump set a 39% tariff rate on Swiss imports, up from the 31% he previously mooted. Canada's dollar dipped to a more than two-month trough after the country received a 35% levy instead of an earlier threatened 25%. The euro remained pinned near an almost two-month low, as it continues to be weighed down by what markets see as a lopsided trade agreement with Washington. The U.S. dollar stayed strong even though Trump continued his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell overnight, calling him a "terrible" Fed Chair and calling his own decision to appoint Powell to the position a "mistake". Trump's repeated threats to fire Powell and calls for the Fed to drastically cut rates has put the central bank's independence in question, hurting the dollar in recent months. "In the short-term you can make the case for more dollar strength," said Mike Houlahan, director at Electus Financial in Auckland. "The lion's share of the tariff news has washed through." "The big move of the week has really been the euro getting rerated downwards," he said. "The net result would be the EU-U.S. trade deal is a further headwind for the euro." The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers including the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Canada's loonie - pushed as high as 100.10 overnight, topping 100 for the first time since May 29. The yen changed hands at 150.64 per dollar after dipping to 150.89 per dollar early on Friday, its weakest since March 28. The euro hovered around $1.1420, not straying far from Wednesday's low of $1.1401, a level not seen since June 10. The franc eased as much as 0.26% to 0.8120 per dollar. The loonie slipped 0.12% to plumb its lowest since May 22 at C$1.3872 versus its U.S. peer.

Oil steadies as concerns about tariff impacts vie with Russian supply threats
Oil steadies as concerns about tariff impacts vie with Russian supply threats

CNBC

time14 minutes ago

  • CNBC

Oil steadies as concerns about tariff impacts vie with Russian supply threats

Oil prices were little changed on Friday after falling more than 1% in the previous session as traders digested the impact of new higher U.S. tariffs that may curtail economic activity and lower global fuel demand growth. Brent crude futures rose 4 cents, or 0.06%, to $71.74 a barrel by 1201 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1 cent, or 0.01%, to $69.27. Still, Brent prices are set to gain 4.9% for the week while WTI is set to climb 6.4% after U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week threatened to place tariffs on buyers of Russian crude, particularly China and India, to coax Russia into halting its war against Ukraine. On Friday though, investors were more focused on Trump's imposition of new, and mostly higher, tariff rates on U.S. trading partners set to go into effect on August 1. Trump signed an executive order on Thursday imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries and foreign locations including Canada, India and Taiwan that failed to reach trade deals by his deadline of August 1. Some analysts have warned the levies will limit economic growth by raising prices, which would weigh on oil consumption. On Thursday, there were signs that existing tariffs are already pressuring prices higher in the U.S., the world's biggest economy and oil consumer. U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs boosted prices for imported goods such as household furniture and recreation products. This is supporting views that price pressures would pick up in the second half of the year and delay the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates until at least October. Maintaining interest rates would also impact oil as the higher borrowing costs can limit economic growth. At the same time, Trump's threats to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers have supported prices because of concerns that would disrupt oil trade flows and remove some oil from the market. JP Morgan analysts said in a note on Thursday Trump's warnings to China and India of penalties on their ongoing purchases of Russian oil potentially puts 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne oil exports at risk. The two countries are the world's second- and third-largest crude consumers, respectively. "The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world's second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices," the analysts said, referring to Russia.

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