What Modi's May 29 Bihar visit tells about BJP poll ambition, strategy

India Today

28-05-2025

If Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has undertaken four visits already to poll-bound Bihar this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not far behind. Modi is set to make his third trip to the state in 2025, arriving on May 29 to inaugurate the Jayaprakash Narayan International Airport's new integrated terminal building and do a roadshow through the streets of Patna. The following day, he will travel to Rohtas district to address a big public gathering.The forthcoming excursion comes within months of the two previous trips. On February 24, Modi was in Bhagalpur to release the latest tranche of benefits under the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme. It was here that he lauded chief minister Nitish Kumar as 'Ladla Chief Minister' (favourite CM)—a term signalling both affection and political expediency. But despite such praise, the BJP's national leadership has conspicuously refrained from declaring Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the assembly elections, due by November.advertisementA second visit, on April 24, and two days after the terror attack in Kashmir's Pahalgam, saw Modi vow that the plotters and executors of that heinous crime would face retribution 'beyond their imagination', underscoring his government's strong anti-terrorism resolve ahead of the polls.Bihar, long a citadel of regional and caste-driven social justice politics rather than a bastion of Hindutva ideology, now finds itself at the epicentre of saffron ambition in the run-up to the polls.
Since 1990, when Lalu Prasad Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) wrested power from the Congress, the state has oscillated between coalition permutations: RJD hegemony until 2005, followed by Nitish's Janata Dal (United) in political dominance November 2005 onwards.Now, for the first time, the BJP stands as the single-largest party in the Bihar legislative assembly, having more than doubled its seat count from 37 in 2005 to 80, alongside a commensurate rise in its share of the popular vote. In this context, Modi's engagement with Bihar serves a dual purpose: burnish his personal charisma and, more importantly, project the BJP as the indispensable nucleus of power in Bihar.advertisementUnlike the election in 2020, in which Nitish stood unchallenged as the NDA's undisputed chief ministerial face, the BJP has yet to endorse him explicitly for the forthcoming contest. Instead, Bihar—a Hindi-heartland state that the BJP has never governed alone—has become the theatre for a daring power-play. Emboldened by its augmented legislative assembly strength, the BJP is now assertively staking claim to primacy within the NDA in the state. It is consolidating traditional vote-banks and highlighting its Hindutva credentials while simultaneously leveraging Nitish's continued partnership—all this without ceding control of the narrative entirely.The BJP's calculation is both evident and pragmatic. Nitish brings to the NDA a formidable coalition of women voters and those from the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs)—demographics in which the JD(U) has constructed a vast network of loyalty through years of meticulously-targeted social-welfare schemes. Programmes such as distribution of bicycles to girls, women self-help groups and politically empowered EBC communities have cemented his party's reputation as the architect of developmental benevolence.Without Nitish's imprimatur, the alliance risks alienating a crucial electoral buffer. Yet, in this election, there remains conspicuous opacity regarding how the BJP intends to recompense its coalition partners once the ballots have been counted. Will the JD(U) retain its ministerial stations or will it find itself further eclipsed by the saffron surge? For the moment, that question remains unanswered.advertisementThe optics of Modi's visits are meticulously calibrated. The unveiling of the new airport terminal is not merely an infrastructure milestone but a symbol of the BJP's development narrative—an assertion that under its stewardship, the benefits of economic growth will be palpably visible in the daily lives of citizens. Likewise, the roadshows and public rallies serve to reinforce the prime minister's status as a man of the people, and a leader who cares. These spectacles are carefully choreographed to generate media coverage, to rally the party faithful, and to signal to undecided voters that the BJP remains the party of momentum and modernity.Yet, Bihar's electoral dynamics are never straightforward. The state's politics are suffused with caste calculations, regional loyalties and identity solidarities. While the BJP has succeeded in expanding its influence among the upper and middle castes, the RJD and other regional parties continue to command loyalty among the substantial swathes of Dalits, Muslims and Yadavs.In this crucible, the JD(U) occupies a pivotal position: perceived as a more centrist, development-oriented alternative to the RJD's somewhat aggressive social justice rhetoric, yet amenable to alliance with the BJP's Hindutva agenda. It is this balancing act that has sustained Nitish's remarkable political longevity even if his alliance partners have changed multiple times.advertisementAs election approaches, the central question will be whether Modi's personal popularity and the BJP's organisational machinery can surmount the entrenched social equations that define Bihar's polity. Can the saffron juggernaut, emboldened by its national mandate and buoyed by Modi's charismatic appeal, translate its expanded vote-share into an outright majority? Or will ally JD(U) hold onto its social justice stronghold? Also importantly, will the Opposition RJD-Congress-Left bloc, fortified by years of grassroots touch and caste coalitions, be able to punch above their weight?In the coming weeks, as campaign rallies multiply and election manifestos are unveiled, the true extent of Modi's influence in Bihar will be revealed. His third visit, culminating in the aerodrome's ribbon-cutting ceremony and the mass rally, will serve as both a capstone and a curtain-raiser—an exhibition of strength designed to energise the electorate and to underscore the BJP's determination to govern Bihar on its own terms. Yet behind the theatrics lies a more profound inquiry into the nature of coalition politics in India's largest democracy: Will the BJP's numerical ascendancy rise further or will it find its power ambitions tempered by the very allies it has sought to cultivate?advertisementThe answer remains tantalisingly out of reach, suspended in the charged air above Bihar's sprawling plains. As the assembly elections draw near, one thing is certain: the contest will not merely decide who occupies the chief minister's chair in Patna; it will also set the course for India's regional politics in the years to come.Subscribe to India Today MagazineTune InTrending Reel