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Nvidia is due to post earnings after the bell. What analysts are saying ahead of the report

Nvidia is due to post earnings after the bell. What analysts are saying ahead of the report

CNBC28-05-2025
The bullish thesis on Nvidia remains in place ahead of earnings, but analysts have questions about the company's path forward. The tech giant is due to post fiscal first quarter results after the bell. Analysts polled by LSEG expect the chipmaker to report adjusted earnings of 93 cents per share on $43.28 billion in revenue for the quarter that ended in April. Those figures signal year-over-year earnings and revenue growth of 52% and 62%, respectively. Analysts will look for clues on how China restrictions are impacting sales — and whether the AI demand that's powered markets in recent years remains strong. Nvidia has said it would take a $5.5 billion charge in the quarter tied to these restrictions. CEO Jensen Huang also noted that the policies have slashed the company's China market share from 95% to 50%. Still, shares have jumped more than 24% over the past month, as announcements from key hyperscalers have revived the excitement around AI. Alphabet's Google last week announced several new AI-powered tools at its I/O developer conference and Microsoft launched its Claude 4 AI model . And while the stock remains below its January record, analysts polled by LSEG think Nvidia has room to run. The consensus price target suggests roughly 21% upside ahead. Of the 64 analysts covering Nvidia, 56 have a strong buy or buy rating on shares, per LSEG. Take a look at what some major analysts have to say ahead of earnings: Morgan Stanley: remains overweight and $160 price target Analyst Joseph Moore advised clients continue buying the stock for the long haul ahead of the report. His $160 price target suggests 18% potential upside. "Sell side does not appear to have universally modeled the impact of H20 ban, so there is some downside potential vs. stale consensus. But if mgmt is convincing that supply of racks and non rack Blackwell is improving, and that there is 2h acceleration, it should not matter," Moore wrote in a Tuesday note. Deutsche Bank: maintains hold rating and $125 price target Analyst Ross Seymore likes Nvidia but thinks its overvalued high after its recent run-up over the past month. He still expects the company to deliver a revenue beat, driven by growth in Blackwell and Hopper GPUs with potential for upside if China-driven demand was larger-than-expected before the H20 ban. "Overall, while geopolitical concerns appear to have lessened and we continue to see NVDA as the undisputed leader in AI processing/ enablement, we believe much of this goodness is fairly reflected in NVDA's share price," Seymore wrote in a May 21 note. Bank of America: maintains buy rating and $160 price target Analyst Vivek Arya warned of a "risk of messy Q2 guide" and said that, depending on Nvidia's original timing of its China shipments, the disconnect between consensus estimates on lost sales and investors' expectations could be magnified. "Despite these near-term headwinds we maintain Buy on NVDA, a top sector pick given its unique leverage to the global AI deployment cycle, and possibility for China sales recovery on new redesigned/compliant products later in the year," Arya said in his recent note to clients. Wolfe Research: keeps outperform rating and $150 price target Analyst Chris Caso's price target signals upside of 10% from Tuesday's close. "What's important is that we strongly believe the rack issues are temporary (and improving), while the demand trends are secular and durable," Caso said. "Since the stock has recovered heading into the report, and we're not expecting upside, we don't consider this quarter's guidance to be a catalyst. We also can't rule out a speed bump due to slower rack production. But there's also little question that there's more than adequate demand for Blackwell, as evidenced by customers' capex commentary, and the need for inference capacity to drive reasoning models ... NVDA remains one of our favorite ideas. Oppenheimer: keeps outperform rating, $175 price target Analyst Rick Schafer's price target suggests roughly 29.2% potential upside for Nvidia, one of the more bullish forecasts on the Street. "We see upside F1Q (Apr) results and a roughly in-line F2Q (Jul) outlook, despite the loss of H20 sales to China following US govt restrictions. China is now < 5% of sales. Production of flagship GB200 rack-scale systems appears to have moved past their initial "growing pains," he wrote in a note. "NVDA remains best positioned in AI, in our view, benefiting from full-stack AI hardware/software and unique rack-level approach." Piper Sandler: maintains overweight and $150 price target Analyst Harsh Kumar said he's "looking for tea leaves for a strong back half of the year" rather than putting up high expectations for Nvidia's latest quarter. This upcoming print is likely the last of negative news for Nvidia this year, he said. "All in all, we think that NVDA is poised to be flat to down into the print this week. We think that April quarter is poised for a miss in revenues largely from macro uncertainty and from the H20 ban ... We note that for the most part the factors resulting in a miss are outside the company's control. Despite this, we see a strong back half of the year given HPC capex coming on strong coupled with macro forces improving driven by sovereign investments following the announcements of several large deals over recent weeks. We advise investors to weather the uncertainty and stay long the stock," he said in a Tuesday note to clients.
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How Big Tech is paying its way out of Trump's tariffs
How Big Tech is paying its way out of Trump's tariffs

CNBC

time41 minutes ago

  • CNBC

How Big Tech is paying its way out of Trump's tariffs

Top tech executives are at the forefront of a recent swathe of unprecedented deals with U.S. President Donald Trump. In just the last few days, the White House confirmed that two U.S. chipmakers, Nvidia and AMD, would be allowed to sell advanced chips to China in exchange for the U.S. government receiving a 15% cut of their revenues in the Asian country. Apple CEO Tim Cook, meanwhile, recently announced plans to increase the firm's U.S. investment commitment to $600 billion over the next four years. The move was widely seen as a bid to get the tech giant out of Trump's crosshairs on tariffs — and appears to have worked for now. Altogether, analysts say the deals show just how important it is for the world's largest companies to find some tariff relief. "The flurry of deal-making is an effort to secure lighter treatment from tariffs," Paolo Pescatore, technology analyst at PP Foresight, told CNBC by email. "In some shape or form, all of the big tech companies have been negatively impacted by tariffs. They can ill afford to fork out on millions of dollars in additional fees that will further dent profits as underlined by recent quarterly earnings," Pescatore said. While the devil will be in the detail of these agreements, Pescatore said that Apple leading the way with its accelerated U.S. investment will likely trigger "a domino effect" within the industry. Apple, for its part, has long been regarded as one of the Big Tech firms most vulnerable to simmering trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Earlier this month, Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on imports of semiconductors and chips, albeit with an exemption for firms that are "building in the United States." Apple, which relies on hundreds of different chips for its devices and incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, is among the firms exempt from the proposed tariffs. The Nvidia and AMD deal with the Trump administration has meanwhile sparked intense debate over the potential impact on the chip giants' businesses and whether the U.S. government may seek out similar agreements with other firms. Some strategists described the arrangement as a "shakedown," while others suggested it may even be unconstitutional and comparing it to a tax on exports. White House Spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday that the legality and mechanics of the 15% export tax on Nvidia and AMD were "still being ironed out." She also hinted deals of this kind could expand to other companies in future. Ray Wang, founder and chairman of Constellation Research, described the Nvidia and AMD deal to pay 15% of China chip sales revenues to the U.S. government as "bizarre." Speaking to CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Monday, Wang said what is "really weird" is there is still some uncertainty over whether these chips represent a national security issue. "If the answer is no, fine OK. The government is taking a cut out of it," Wang said. "Both Nvidia's Jensen Huang and Lisa Su at AMD both decided that OK, we've got a way to get our chips into China and maybe there is something good coming out of it." While investors initially welcomed the deal as broadly positive for both Nvidia and AMD, which once more secure access to the Chinese market, Wang said some in the industry will nevertheless be concerned. "As an investor, you're worried because then, is this an arbitrary decision by the government? Does every president get to play kingmaker in terms of these deals?" Wang said. "So, I think that's really what the concern is, and we still have additional tariffs and trade deals to come from the China negotiations," he added. Looking ahead, Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management, said the question for investors is whether the Trump administration's "hands-on" approach is positive or negative for U.S. companies. "I think for each company, it is very different. So, it certainly it is something I take into account. The bigger thing for me is do you have some stability of policy? Do you have a policy one week and then it flips the next?" Niles told CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" on Monday. "Right now, that is what concerns me a little bit more."

I Tested a $200 Budget Phone and It Didn't Make Me Look Like a Cheapskate
I Tested a $200 Budget Phone and It Didn't Make Me Look Like a Cheapskate

CNET

time42 minutes ago

  • CNET

I Tested a $200 Budget Phone and It Didn't Make Me Look Like a Cheapskate

CNET's expert staff reviews and rates dozens of new products and services each month, building on more than a quarter century of expertise. 7.0 / 10 SCORE TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G Pros Quality display for the price E-reader mode extends already-solid battery life NxtPaper Color Ink mode is perfect for night owls Cons Grainy picture quality on main camera Slight delay when multitasking Gets uncomfortably hot when gaming TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G 7/10 CNET Score The TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G is an impressive budget phone that meets or exceeds the specs of its 50 series predecessors -- and in many ways outperforms the Samsung Galaxy A16 5G at the same price. The shiny bonus features are the eponymous NxtPaper digital ink and e-reader modes and cloud-based TCL AI. You might not use these features regularly -- the NxtPaper digital ink was great for night-time reading and I'd rather write my own emails than use the AI assistant -- but they're solid value adds to a $200 phone. This phone hits top marks for everyday use. Its screen is large, the 120Hz refresh rate is buttery smooth and the battery lasted me throughout the entire day, even with frequent use. Ardent selfie-takers will enjoy a big 32-megapixel upgrade to the front-facing camera, though the camera system is otherwise very similar to TCL's 50 series phones. Compared to other phones in a similar price range, the TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G delivers where it counts for day-to-day use, and its impressive bells and whistles sweetened my experience with the phone. The TCL 60 XE's default home screen is pretty enough -- and it isn't filled up with T-Mobile bloatware. Tyler Graham/CNET TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G's design, screen and battery The 60 XE NxtPaper 5G has a 6.78-inch display that's just as big as the TCL 50 XL 5G's screen and larger than the Samsung Galaxy A16 5G's 6.7-inch display. The 60 XE NxtPaper 5G's 1080p resolution panel with a 120Hz refresh rate also outperformed the Samsung Galaxy A16 5G at the same $200 price. That large display makes games easier to play. I was able to take in the stunning visuals of the mobile game Sky: Children of the Light without my fat thumbs obscuring my vision, though the phone got uncomfortably warm against my hands after a 15-minute play session. When reviewing the TCL 50 XL 5G, CNET writer Mike Sorrentino pointed out how its speakers muddied audio mixing with the volume cranked up. I found myself having a similar problem with the 60 XE NxtPaper 5G, which was a big pain point when I was using the phone on the train and couldn't simply keep upping the volume at my leisure. You could, as I did, cup a hand around the speaker to hear it better, but it's easier to use the 3.5mm jack -- an enviable feature long abandoned by pricier phones -- and plug in some headphones. The TCL AI is accessible from within any app, with a simple three-finger swiping motion. Tyler Graham/CNET One big surprise on this budget phone was the 8GB of RAM -- doubled to an effective 16GB by using part of the storage for extra memory -- which made swapping between apps effortless and let me jump from streaming videos to graphically intensive games with little to no trouble. Crucially, 8GB of memory is the sweet spot that more or less enables AI capabilities on a device, and TCL AI is enabled on the 60 XE. It's a simple cloud-based LLM that helps with writing tasks, so don't expect anything like Google's Circle to Search feature. Even so, it can draft basic email templates if you struggle to find the right words for a given situation. The 60 XE is working off of a MediaTek Dimensity 6100 Plus processor, which is the same silicon powering the TCL 50 XL and the TCL 40 X, though it seems that TCL managed to optimize the processing power of the 60 XE to avoid the 50 XL's relatively quick battery drain. At the end of the day, all these specs are bundled together in an aesthetically pleasing package. The 60 XE NxtPaper 5G is 0.32 inches (8.2mm) thick and fits smoothly into any pocket (including the too-tight jeans I made the mistake of wearing) and the back of the phone has a pretty blue rippling design that's pleasant to look at on the rare occasion that it's set face-down. It's a budget phone that doesn't make you look like a cheapskate, which is always worth appreciating. I enjoyed the 60 XE's slim form and aesthetically pleasing navy patterning. Tyler Graham/CNET Geekbench v.6.0 and 3DMark benchmark test results TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G 732 1,855 378 TCL 50 XL 5G 698 1,881 338 Samsung Galaxy A15 5G 685 1,768 321 Geekbench 6.0 Single Core Geekbench 6.0 Multi Core 3DMark Wild Life Extreme Note: Higher scores are better. CNET has several tests to help benchmark a phone's battery life. In our YouTube streaming test, in which we stream videos at 100% brightness for three hours, the TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G's battery life drained to 90% at the one-hour mark, 80% at the two-hour mark and finished the test at 71% battery. The TCL 50 XL drained from full to 62% in the same test. The 60 XE NxtPaper shares display specs with the 50 series phone, but TCL seems to have optimized power use on the newer device. We're still in the process of reviewing the Samsung Galaxy A16 5G, so for this comparison, we used our results for the Samsung Galaxy A15 5G. The A15 5G beat both phones, draining from 100% battery to 83% battery during the YouTube streaming test. In our 45-minute battery endurance test, I put the 60 XE NxtPaper through its paces. I watched YouTube videos, ran a Google Meet call and played Sky for 10 minutes each, then browsed Bluesky for 15 minutes. In that time, the phone's battery dropped from 100% to 91%. I also timed how long it takes to charge the phone using the included 18W wired USB-C charger. The 60 XE NxtPaper went from 15% to 100% in 2 hours and 16 minutes, though the Samsung Galaxy A15 charges faster with its 25W charger. When it comes to software, the 60 XE has TCL's 50 series - and even the Samsung Galaxy A15 (for now) - beat. It runs Android 15 with a custom TCL UI and comes with TCL's standard promise of one major software upgrade, to Android 16, plus two years of system security updates. This isn't great, especially compared to Samsung's promise of four years of software updates and five years of security updates for budget phones. Even if you fall in love with the 60 XE NxtPaper 5G, you'll want to trade it in after a couple of years once TCL abandons its system security. Fortunately, the 60 XE NxtPaper avoids the carrier-locked bloatware that TCL 50 XL users had to deal with. You'll get only the usual Google suite of preinstalled apps, and you won't have to worry about the obtrusive T-Mobile Play feed being an eyesore. Without NxtPaper Ink mode turned on, the TCL 60 XE still displayed vibrant hues in this Webtoon comic. Tyler Graham/CNET NxtPaper screen for easier reading and better battery life The big selling point of the TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G is its display-altering NxtPaper technology. While not brand-new -- TCL brought its NxtPaper phones to the US at CES in 2024 and has used it for years in its tablets -- it's a special feature that adds extra value to a budget phone. The NxtPaper digital ink display modes are meant to replicate the experience of reading on paper. The 60 XE has a dedicated side switch that toggles among its three modes. I tested them at night while my partner slept soundly beside me. My bright phone screen normally blasts my eyes during late-night doomscrolling, so anything that softens that glare is a welcome reprieve. The Max Ink mode was the tool I used the least, because it limited the usage of my favorite apps, like Webtoon. Max Ink fully converts the 60 XE into an e-reader, closing most apps and turning the screen entirely black and white. Battery life in this mode is extensive -- at 52% charge, the phone predicted nearly 66 hours of use. You can still check messages, browse the web, scroll social media and more, so there's a versatile range of apps you can reopen. Personally, the stark black-and-white color scheme still felt like a flashbang in bed, so I only used it once or twice -- but it's an excellent battery saver in a pinch. The Ink Paper mode's black-and-white display was gentler on the eyes, blending NxtPaper's e-reader capabilities with TCL's signature blue-light-dimming feature. It was admittedly easier on the eyes than Max Ink, but I still wouldn't choose to brighten my phone primarily with a (greyed-out) light mode. The Color Paper mode removed some of the richer orange hues from the Webtoon, but it still captures the "golden hour" depicted in the art. Tyler Graham/CNET The saving grace for the NxtPaper modes is Color Paper, the third blue-light-dimming option in the suite. It keeps the screen's colors intact while switching to a paper-like display that's easier on the eyes. The end result is slightly washed out hues, but that didn't get in the way of enjoying my apps. I read half of a manga in one night with the Color Paper mode on, and while I definitely noticed the lack of vibrancy, it actually made everything look a bit like a watercolor painting. The camera disc is a raised bump on the back of the 60 XE. Tyler Graham/CNET TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G cameras The 60 XE NxtPaper's large camera disc comes equipped with a triple-camera system: a 50-megapixel wide-angle lens, a 5-megapixel ultrawide and a 2-megapixel depth sensor for calculating depth-of-field effects in portraits or close-up shots. The front-facing camera is 32 megapixels, which is a big step up from TCL's 50 XL phone. The main camera captures functional photos with a wide range of color. In this shot of a green corner in my girlfriend's neighborhood, the light post in the foreground is adequately separated from the background details, though it's clear how much the elements in the rear blend together. The large tree in the background on the right side of the photo is a perfect example of how similar hues blur and blend together with the 60 XE's main camera. Tyler Graham/CNET I also used the main camera to snap a photo of a sauce blend at a Korean hot pot restaurant. Once again, the 60 XE's camera separates distinct colors but blends similar hues, resulting in a flatter image. Even slight zooming reveals that fine details just aren't captured. Tyler Graham/CNET I also put the ultrawide camera to work during hot pot, snapping a shot of our table once the plates arrived. The foreground is rendered in great detail -- you can even see the moisture on the meat -- but the background detail doesn't hold up in comparison. Even though the background gets grainy and blurry, the TCL 60 XE's main camera captures an impressive amount of detail on the meat in the foreground. Tyler Graham/CNET The depth sensor adds a shallow depth of field to photos, making for nicely detailed shots. I used it to capture these flowers from my girlfriend's garden, and the vibrant hues really stand out. The rich red bulbs and soft pink petals pop against the background, making the 60 XE feel like it's punching above its weight for nature photography. Tyler Graham/CNET Compared with the photos CNET senior editor Mike Sorrentino took on the TCL 50 XL 5G, the TCL 60 XE's selfie camera is definitely sharper. Here's a shot of me at a pit stop during a multi-day trip -- it captures the unshaved fuzz on my face in almost uncomfortable detail, but completely washes out the sky and blends the reds of the gas station behind me. The 60 XE's selfie camera does a good job at capturing the main subject, but washes out everything in the background. Tyler Graham/CNET The camera system is a normal corner-cutting point for these budget phones. You won't be taking any award-winning photos with the 60 XE, but at the end of the day, I wouldn't have any reservations about posting these pictures on Instagram either. The bottom line: What we think of the TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G TCL has put together another impressive budget device, combining some features you'd expect from pricier phones with extra bells and whistles that feel special in a $200 product. The 60 XE's display is much like the 50 XL's, but its standout camera upgrade is the front-facing selfie lens. And what really sets it apart from other budget phones are the NxtPaper and TCL AI features. Unfortunately, the 60 XE's battery life can't match the Samsung Galaxy A15's. It also gets uncomfortably hot during mobile gaming. But its biggest drawback is still TCL's meager promise of just one software upgrade and two years of security updates. Both Motorola and Samsung have stronger commitments to support their budget phones, offering three years and five years of security updates, respectively. If you have sensitive eyes or you frequently use AI writing tools, the TCL 60 XE NxtPaper is a cut above most other phones you can get for $200. If the extras here don't matter much to you, you're probably better off with a Samsung or Motorola phone. TCL 60 XE NxtPaper 5G specs vs. TCL 50 XL 5G, Samsung Galaxy A15 5G specs TCL 60 XE NXTPAPER 5G TCL 50 XL 5G Samsung Galaxy A15 5G Display size, tech, resolution, refresh rate 6.78-inch FHD Plus, 2,460 x 1,080 pixels, 120 Hz refresh rate 6.78-inch, 2,460 x 1,080 pixels, 120Hz refresh rate 6.5-inch FHD Plus Super AMOLED; 2,340 x 1,080 pixels; 90Hz refresh rate Pixel density 396 ppi 396 ppi 420 ppi Dimensions (inches) 6.6 x 2.97 x 0.32 in. 6.6 x 2.9 x 0.32 in. 6.3 x 3.02 x 0.33 in. Dimensions (millimeters) 167.6 x 75.5 x 8.22mm 167.6 x 73.6 x 8.1mm 160 x 76.7 x 8.4 mm Weight (grams, ounces) 199.5g (6.9 oz) 195g (6.9 oz) 201g (7.09 oz.) Mobile software Android 15 Android 14 Android 14 Camera 50-megapixel (main + macro camera), 5-megapixel (ultrawide), 2-megapixel (depth) 50-megapixel (wide), 5-megapixel (ultrawide), 2-megapixel (depth) 50-megapixel (wide), 5-megapixel (ultrawide), 2-megapixel (macro) Front-facing camera 32-megapixel 8-megapixel 13-megapixel Video capture 1,080p at 30 fps 1,080p 1,080p at 30 fps Processor MediaTek Dimensity 6100 Plus MediaTek Dimensity 6100 Plus Mediatek Dimensity 6100 Plus RAM/storage 8GB RAM + 128GB 6GB RAM + 128GB 4GB RAM + 128GB Expandable storage Yes Yes Yes Battery 5,010 mAh 5,010 mAh 5,000 mAh Fingerprint sensor Side Side Side Connector USB-C USB-C USB-C Headphone jack Yes Yes Yes Special features 5G connectivity, TCL NXTPAPER e-reader mode, TCL AI functionality, 18W wired charging NFC, 5G connectivity, TCL NxtVision, 18W wired charging 25W wired charging, 800-nit brightness US price starts at $200 (128GB) $160 (128GB) $200 (128GB) UK price starts at £169 (128GB) £128 (128GB) £169 (128GB) Australia price starts at AU$329 (128GB) AU$242 (128GB) AU$329 (128GB) How we test phones Every phone tested by CNET's reviews team is actually used in the real world. We test a phone's features, play games and take photos. We examine the display to see if it's bright, sharp and vibrant. We analyze the design and build to see how it is to hold and whether it has an IP-rating for water resistance. We push the processor to its limits using standardized benchmarks like GeekBench and 3DMark, along with our own observations while navigating the interface, recording high-resolution videos and playing graphics-heavy games at high refresh rates. All the cameras are tested in a variety of conditions, from bright sunlight to dim indoor scenes. We try out special features, such as night mode and portrait mode, and compare our findings against similarly priced competing phones. We also test battery life through daily use and a series of battery drain tests. We consider additional features, such as 5G support, satellite connectivity, fingerprint and face sensors, stylus compatibility, charging speeds and foldable displays, among other useful tools, too. And we balance all this against the price to give you the verdict on whether that phone, whatever price it is, actually represents good value. Though these tests may not always be reflected in CNET's initial review, we conduct follow-up and long-term testing in most circumstances.

Inside the Memphis Community Battling Elon Musk's xAI
Inside the Memphis Community Battling Elon Musk's xAI

Time​ Magazine

time43 minutes ago

  • Time​ Magazine

Inside the Memphis Community Battling Elon Musk's xAI

Protesters including Orion Overstreet, left, march against xAI in Memphis in June 2025. Stu Boyd II—USA TODAY Network/Reuters Five days after Elon Musk's Grok 4 became one of the most powerful large language models in the world, Alexis Humphreys had her first severe asthma attack in 15 years. She laid down in her house in Boxtown, Memphis in the humid, sticky summer, struggling to breathe, inhaling a smell of gas that had started wafting into her neighborhood about a year before. 'It felt like my chest was caving in,' Humphreys, 28, says on her front porch a couple of days later. Environmentalists and community activists say this is no coincidence. Boxtown, a predominantly Black community with a median income of $37,000, sits a few miles from where Musk, driven by ambitions of creating an AI smarter than humans, set up the self-proclaimed biggest supercomputer in the world last year. The supercomputer, named Colossus, consisted of a staggering 230,000 Nvidia GPUs, a sheer training power that allowed Musk to vault past his competitors in key benchmarks. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, another AI titan, praised Musk's rapid buildout of the site as 'superhuman.' But all of those computers need a vast amount of energy to run. Fueling them has been 35 unpermitted temporary gas turbines, which have been pumping out a level of emissions that, according to environmentalists, is exacerbating the health issues of an area already crushed by decades of pollution. Elon Musk's supercomputer Project Colossus, in Memphis, TN on Aug. 22, 2024. Karen Pulfer Focht—Reuters Researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, at the request of TIME, ran an analysis on the air quality in South Memphis over the last couple of years, based on public satellite data from NASA and the European Space Agency. They found that average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide have increased by 3% when comparing the periods before June 2024 and afterward. They also found that peak nitrogen dioxide concentration levels have increased by 79% from pre-xAI levels in areas immediately surrounding the data center, and by 9% in nearby Boxtown. Because high concentrations of air pollutants pose greater health risks than lower concentrations, the researchers said, focusing on these spikes—rather than just averages—offers more meaningful insight into potential health impacts. It's the first major effort to quantify the turbines' environmental impact using publicly available data. 'These changes in pollutant concentrations likely reflect the combined influence of natural gas-fired emission sources in the area, including both the new xAI facility and the increased utilization of the Allen power plant,' wrote Joshua Fu, a civil and environmental engineering professor, and Zhixu Sun, a PhD student. Austin Dalgo, an academic primary care physician in South Memphis, calls the jump in peak nitrogen dioxide concentration levels 'alarming,' and believes that they 'significantly increase the risk to residents' health.' The EPA writes that a high concentration of NO2 can aggravate respiratory diseases, particularly asthma. 'The xAI turbines are leading to a public health crisis in Memphis by releasing nitrogen oxides—pollutants known to directly harm the lungs,' Dalgo tells TIME. 'These emissions pose the greatest risk to our city's most vulnerable residents, including children, the elderly, and individuals with respiratory conditions like asthma and COPD.' xAI—and its boosters, such as the Greater Memphis Chamber of Commerce—insisted the turbines were legal, generated negligible amounts of pollution, and were only temporary: they said in April that the units would be replaced with cleaner models featuring pollution controls, a change they later claimed was carried out this summer. Those upgrades, the company's local representative, Brent Mayo, told a permit hearing in April, would make xAI 'the lowest-emitting facility in the country.' (xAI did not respond to a request for comment for this story.) Gas turbines are visible at an xAI data center on Riverport Rd in Memphis, TN on April 25, 2025. Brandon Dill—TheCommunity members believe that the damage is already done, and that xAI's approach sets a dangerous precedent for other companies to pollute without regulatory oversight, as long as they are doing so on a 'temporary' basis. In June, the NAACP sent an intent-to-sue notice to xAI for violating the Clean Air Act, arguing that the company failed to obtain the necessary permits or pollution controls for the turbines. But the lawsuit seems unlikely to get traction from President Donald Trump's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which just shuttered the scientific research arm that analyzes environmental hazards. Now, Musk is building an even bigger data center at a different site a few miles away in Whitehaven, which he brags will be double the size—and run on a power plant imported from overseas. In August, 66 more gas turbines paid for by an xAI subsidiary were delivered to that site, although it's unclear how they will be used. AI data centers are exploding in number across the country alongside Trump's AI Action Plan, released in July, which calls for the expediting of data center permitting by reducing regulations imposed by the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act. AI boosters like Musk tend to talk about AI progress in global or even intergalactic terms. They say that powerful AIs will cure cancer, fight climate change, and turbocharge productivity. But their quest to transform humanity may be coming at the expense of actual people. 'Our lives and our lungs are being sacrificed on the altar of their capitalistic exploitation,' says Justin Pearson, a Tennessee state representative for parts of Memphis, including Boxtown. 'Imagine the outcry if these facilities had been placed next to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, no one would allow it,' says Dalgo. 'Instead, they were placed in the backyard of a historically Black, underserved neighborhood, reinforcing a long legacy of environmental racism in Memphis—and our country.' Elon's Deal xAI's first Memphis data center sits on the banks of the Mississippi, a 15-minute drive from downtown. To the casual observer, there's little that distinguishes it visually from the other facilities in the heavily-industrialized area, which include a power plant, a wastewater plant, and a steel manufacturer. But it's clear something substantial is happening inside: the ground hums with activity, and from the road outside the fences, air above its turbines appears to glitch and flicker as they pump out fumes. AI is America's newest big industry—and Elon Musk is intent on controlling its most powerful systems. Driven by fears of what would happen if AGI (artificial general intelligence) were to be developed in the wrong hands, Musk has plowed billions of dollars into developing the technology. But his first big bet in the space—on the young entrepreneur Sam Altman and OpenAI—ended in a bitter breakup. Musk publicly questioned whether Altman could be trusted with AGI, and started building his own rival project: xAI, which he announced in 2023. At that point, Musk was several years behind his competitors. He needed to find a location to quickly start training his AI, with as ample energy and water—and as little red tape—as possible. Musk found a willing partner in Memphis, a city with deep economic challenges. In 2024, Shelby County, where Memphis sits, led the nation in population decline. And because Tennessee does not collect income tax—which it repealed in 2021—its governments are reliant on businesses coming to the state to pay property taxes. 'Property taxes are the mother's milk of how government is funded,' says Bobby White, chief government affairs officer at the Greater Memphis Chamber of Commerce. 'And we have not, historically, had people tripping over themselves to get to Memphis. We have to go get it out of the mud.' In 2024, xAI came calling about a large, vacant manufacturing lot: a former Electrolux plant, which had arrived in 2013 with $188 million in subsidies, promising good, long-term jobs. But six years later, the company announced it would close shop and lay off 500 employees, marking yet another corporate letdown for the city. 'Memphis is a cash cow for everybody but us,' says Orion Overstreet, a Memphis college student and activist. 'It has always been a very extractive story, where we get stuck as the dumping ground for corporations.' Orion Overstreet, Memphis college student and activist, speaks with TIME. Julian Harper The Electrolux site seemed ideal to xAI: in an industrial zone, proximate to a power plant and a wastewater facility. When xAI inquired about the site, and didn't ask for property tax abatements, many politicians and local agencies were elated. The scope of the project meant that it was projected to generate an estimated $25 million or more in property taxes for Memphis during every year of operation. So xAI forged ahead quietly and quickly, signing NDAs with key players, including Memphis Gas Light and Water (MGLW). Memphis Council Member Yolanda Cooper-Sutton says she heard about the project on the news. The data center was built in a matter of months, with xAI insiders calling it 'the largest AI datacenter on the planet.' Musk was ready to train his AI Grok in Memphis, but there was just one problem: MGLW couldn't provide nearly enough power for Musk's needs. In August 2024, MGLW said that xAI would have access to 50 megawatts of power. But xAI wanted to use triple that amount: enough energy to power 80,000 households. So he brought in 35 methane gas turbines, which had a combined generating capacity of 421 megawatts, comparable to entire Tennessee power plants. Based on manufacturer-supplied emissions data, these turbines have the potential to emit between 1,200 and 2,000 tons of smog-forming nitrogen oxides (NOx) a year, which would eclipse the output of the Memphis airport. In April, Memphis Mayor Paul Young, who has been supportive of the project, said that the turbines were only there as a backup power source, and only 15 of them were in use. But environmentalists used thermal imaging and found heat coming off of 33 of the 35 turbines. The turbines, based on their visual makes, did not appear to be equipped with emissions control technology, says Amanda Garcia, a senior attorney at the Southern Environmental Law Center, which represents NAACP in its legal actions against xAI. 'These 35 turbines: we have never seen anything like this in Memphis or elsewhere,' says Garcia. 'They essentially set up a power plant without getting a permit.' A representative for Mayor Young did not make him available for comment. The Boxtown Resistance Easter Knox, 76, started smelling gas in the air last year, and stopped opening her windows. 'It smells like rotten cabbage early in the morning,' Knox says, three miles down from the data center. 'It's been a struggle, breathing this little air that's coming through.' Knox knows all too well that Memphis's air wasn't exactly clean before xAI arrived. Shelby County received an F from the American Lung Association's most recent State of the Air's ozone report. The city ranks second in the nation in terms of asthma-related ED visits in the nation and seventh in asthma-related deaths. And the city's ozone levels regularly exceed national minimum air quality standards. Boxtown, where Knox has lived for five decades, has been particularly crushed. Once a community for freed slaves after the Civil War, corporations flocked to the area in the 20th century to set up giant industrial plants. In the 1940s, the U.S. military came to South-Central Memphis and disposed of waste such as oil, grease, and paint thinners into the soil; decades later, it was declared a superfund site. A Sterilization Services of Tennessee facility was finally closed last year after emitting ethylene oxide into the air for decades, which the EPA linked to increased cancer risk in South Memphis. A 2013 study found that Southwest Memphis's cancer rate is four times the national average. Knox's family is represented in those cruel statistics: Her father and brother died from cancer, which she believes was related to the nearby Valero oil refinery. Knox was diagnosed with COPD last year, and her husband, Starrie, also suffered from asthma and COPD before dying in June from cancer. 'We are the last of the forgotten out here,' she says. As Knox sits under a shaded pavilion in Boxtown on a July afternoon, the air is stifling: glasses fog up in the humidity, and the metal weights on a communal bench press scald to the touch. Though some houses in the neighborhood are crumbling, there are also plenty of signs of community care around her, in the form of flower beds and shady places to sit. 'It's God's given air, and man shouldn't take it away from us,' she says. 'I don't care how much money you got.' As Knox talks, a crowd gathers and nods in assent, offering their own stories of decades of trauma and neglect. 'I got a lot of relatives, my mother and father, buried up there at my church with breathing problems, cancer, lung problems,' says Willie Joseph Stafford, an 80-year-old lifelong Boxtown resident. 'Nobody seems to care about what's causing it and what we can do to solve it. Instead of them trying to do that, they come out here and put more pollution on us.' For Musk, the Electrolux plant was simply a good deal. To the residents of Boxtown, it was another threat upon their lungs. Gas turbines release smog-forming pollution and hazardous chemicals like formaldehyde—which are tied to increases in asthma, respiratory diseases, heart problems, and certain cancers. People who already have respiratory issues are at greater health risk to any increase in pollution. Dalgo, who works at several clinics within 15 miles of the data center, says he sees many patients with breathing issues. 'I'm pretty surprised at how many people come in with respiratory problems, or need an inhaler to get around day-to-day without having wheezing symptoms,' he says. 'I think their respiratory issues are being exacerbated because they're experiencing high levels of nitrogen oxides … I wouldn't be surprised if some of the respiratory issues that I've seen are directly related to the tonnes of nitrogen oxides that are being put in the air by these turbines.' In April, hundreds of people showed up to a public hearing held by the Shelby County Health Department over xAI's air permit for permanent turbines, and voiced their complaints one by one. 'Why can't we breathe at home?' Humphreys asked at the meeting. Public outcry has continued. On one Tuesday evening in July, about 75 protesters gathered by the student coalition Tigers Against Pollution marched in front of the Shelby County Health Department, holding signs that read 'Elon XiPloits' and 'our lungs / our lives / NOT FOR SALE.' One of the marchers was Christian Dennis, a 22-year-old South Memphian whose grandmother died of cancer, despite not smoking or drinking her whole life. 'They call us anti-business extremists,' he says. 'To receive that reaction simply from wanting clean air, wanting equal health opportunities—It just tells you a lot about people.' Christian Dennis, 22, from South Memphis speaks to TIME. Julian Harper The protest garnered support from passing cars. A fire truck drove by and honked its deafening horn, with firefighters holding up fists. When a Tesla Cybertruck—which has effectively become a symbol of Musk himself—stopped alongside the protest, protestors began jeering. But then the driver rolled down his window and leaned toward the crowd. 'I'm on your side!' he shouted, before driving away. Power and Promises Boxtown residents and protesters are making a lot of noise. But they're running up against the city's power players—most notably the Greater Memphis Chamber of Commerce, which helped bring xAI to the city. 'We're seeing something pretty magnificent happen that is going to be tremendously beneficial to the city,' Bobby White, the Chamber's government affairs officer, told TIME at the Chamber's offices downtown. When you walk into the Chamber and turn right, the first thing you see is xAI's logo: the main conference room is emblazoned with the title 'xAI Digital Delta Center' in big, frosted lettering. White explains that while the Chamber used to be primarily funded by the government, it now relies on private funding—and xAI has become its biggest investor in short order. 'We do sponsorships. You can put your name on the wall, too,' he says. White is keen to list the reasons why xAI will uplift Memphis. xAI's property taxes will inject millions into public projects to beautify the city and fix infrastructure, he says. Musk has agreed to supply Tesla Megapack batteries that will help fortify the grid during periods of peak demand to safeguard from blackouts. xAI's presence in the area is bringing other companies to an area that desperately needs jobs and investment. And the company has agreed to finance renovations for four schools near their data centers. Another key potential benefit involves water. Data centers use a vast amount of water to cool their computers, sometimes drawing from the local drinking supply. When xAI moved to Memphis, water activists became concerned that the company would try to draw from the aquifer that sits below the city and contains some of the purest water in the country. Instead, Musk started work on an $80 million wastewater plant down the road from his facility, which would treat sewer water and repurpose it for xAI's uses. Crucially, other nearby entities, including the Tennessee Valley Authority and Nucor Steel, have agreed to use it once it's ready, taking them off the aquifer. Sarah Houston, the executive director of the nonprofit Protect Our Aquifer, calls the treatment plant a 'huge step in the right direction' towards protecting the drinking water of Memphis. Houston, however, remains wary of the project's future. 'Building infrastructure for the oligarchy is a really scary path to start walking,' Houston says. 'If xAI folds and leaves, how do we ensure this facility continues to operate? Public interest should not be based on profits. It should be based on our core needs, one of which is clean drinking water.' But those in power are attempting to convince Boxtown residents that xAI's presence will actually benefit them most. Mayor Young has proposed an ordinance that 25% of xAI's property taxes go straight to infrastructure improvements within five miles of its data centers. The ordinance, the mayor told Memphis council members, would help 'bring back dignity' to Boxtown and nearby communities, financing potholes, street repair, home repairs, and social services. It is slowly working its way through the city council process this summer. Tennessee state representative Justin Pearson speaks in opposition to a plan by Elon Musks's xAI to use gas turbines for a new data center during a rally outside of Fairley High School ahead of a public comment meeting on the project in Memphis, TN on April 25, 2025. Brandon Dill—TheSome Boxtown community members are pacified by this idea. But Representative Justin Pearson is not one of them. 'There's no amount of money that can persuade me to accept pollution killing me and my family,' he says. He likens the funding to a bribe, and contends the community has not been given legitimate input into how the money might be allocated. He adds that Boxtown should not have to sacrifice its air quality for fundamental services like getting its trash picked up and its potholes filled. 'It is sickening that the only way we're going to be able to get any financial benefits from our government is by accepting the death-dealing pollution, xAI plant tax,' he says. Other community members say that past projects have offered similar promises, only for them to not pan out. 'When someone says that this percentage of tax revenue will go to this thing, it's hard to trust that, because it hasn't in the past,' says Amber Sherman, a Memphis policy organizer. Debating the Data As xAI's defenders stress its potential benefits, they also contend that the environmental criticisms are overblown. White, for instance, argues that there's no evidence xAI is doing anything 'that is not legally, or in terms of existing policy, allowable.' He adds: 'We have folks who will go to these community meetings and complain about temporary gas turbines, half of which have already disappeared, and they'll be driving a car that's smoking, looking like they're cooking barbecue in the back.' There have been no significant studies on the turbines' impact on Memphis air quality. Proper air quality testing is expensive and requires rigorous reporting over a long period of time. It is also exceedingly hard to pinpoint xAI's exact impact, given the many other industrial facilities in the area. Most relevant governmental agencies have avoided looking into the turbines' impact in a meaningful way. The Shelby County Health Department said the turbines, because they were temporary, fell under the oversight of the EPA. (In July, its director Michelle Taylor announced she was leaving the job for a Baltimore post.) An EPA spokesperson said in July that the agency was working with the local health department to review concerns. The health department subsequently approved xAI's permit request for 15 permanent gas turbines, which it said would be used strictly as backup, and said that the temporary turbines were fine as long as they were removed within a year. They added that the permanent turbines would have state-of-the-art emissions control which would make their health impacts negligible. The City of Memphis tried to assuage concerns by commissioning its own study, which found the air in Boxtown and Whitehaven was safe. But some air quality experts raised questions about the study's methodology, which only took readings from three locations over two 12-hour periods, and placed monitors underneath buildings in a way that may not have conformed with EPA guidance. 'Most importantly, the monitors did not even measure one of the most important air pollutants at issue here, which is ozone or smog,' says Garcia of the SELC. In April, University of Memphis professor Chunrong Jia declared that, based on his modeling, the turbines did not threaten local air quality, but conceded that there was 'huge uncertainty' around the modeling process, especially because it was based on data provided by xAI rather than on independent air monitoring. Jia did not respond to a request for comment. In July, Memphis Communities Against Pollution, a group led by Justin Pearson's brother KeShaun, announced that it was conducting its own $250,000 study to install nine air quality monitoring devices in the city. Pearson says a full report from the study will likely be available in September. Meanwhile, TIME asked researchers at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville to run an analysis of the air quality in South Memphis based on publicly available data from satellites: NASA's TEMPO instrument, and ESA's Tropomi. After screening for cloud cover, outliers, and using de-weathering techniques, they found 'distinct temporal patterns across pollutants following the commencement of xAI facility operations.' When adjusted for meteorological variability, they found that nitrogen dioxide jumped by 3% in the post-xAI period, with peak episodes observed in late 2024. 'These findings suggest that emissions from the xAI data center and associated transportation activities may be contributing to air quality changes in ZIP code 38109,' wrote Joshua Fu and Zhixu Sun in their analysis. The researchers also found that the concentration levels of nitrogen dioxide hit far higher peaks after the turbines moved in, with the maximum value of hourly NASA data increasing by 79% compared to that of the pre-xAI period. 'Since high concentrations of air pollutants pose far greater health risks than lower concentrations, focusing on peak values or upper-percentile concentrations provides more meaningful insight when evaluating potential health impacts,' Sun wrote. The researchers noted that some of those emissions may be coming from the TVA power plant nearby. But TVA allocated 150 megawatts—about 13% of the plant's capacity—to xAI in 2024, according to data the researchers reviewed from the Energy Information Administration. They also noted that motor vehicles may have contributed to the rise in nitrogen dioxide. xAI is currently building out a second location just a few miles away, in Whitehaven, which will be double the size of the first one, with 550,000 Nvidia GPUs. The site needs so much power that Musk may be shipping a power plant from overseas. While Musk has talked about the importance of 'maximum transparency,' details around the site's power, water and environmental impact are essentially unknown. In August, the Memphis newspaper Commercial Appeal found in SEC filings that an xAI subsidiary had paid for 66 natural gas turbines, and had them delivered to the Whitehaven site. Musk says his goal is to bring the equivalent of 50 million NVIDIA supercomputers online within five years. The result of all this power? The ever-increasing capability of xAI's large language model Grok, which X users now look to as a source of truth. In July, Grok 4 outperformed its rivals on many benchmarks, most notably math-problem solving. In the same month, Grok also referred to itself as 'MechaHitler,' made anti-semitic statements, and gave TIME instructions to make fentanyl. Concurrently, xAI announced a contract with the U.S. Defense Department worth up to $200 million to develop tech tools for America's military. Musk's acceleration is only spurring forward his competitors to build their own data centers, too—and the Trump administration is cheering them on. The EPA's leader, Lee Zeldin, wrote in Fox News that he wants to 'clear the way for data center and AI development across the U.S.' In March, Zeldin announced that he, with the assistance of Musk's DOGE, had slashed more than $2 billion in EPA funding. Project Colossus in Memphis, on Aug. 22, 2024. Karen Pulfer Focht—Reuters This posture from the EPA makes it unlikely they will take action against the NAACP's imminent lawsuit against xAI's turbines. Abre' Conner, the director of the Center for Environmental and Climate Justice at the NAACP, sees xAI's Memphis conflict as part of a much larger struggle. 'For decades, we know that the decision to place more pollution in certain communities has disproportionately impacted Black communities and other frontline communities,' she says. 'And now with the data center boom, many are looking at places that have already been considered sacrifice zones.' Musk hasn't responded to the community complaints in Memphis. As always, he has his eye on the horizon, and beyond: He's talked extensively about the importance of having a 'high pain threshold' in business in pursuit of lofty goals. Maybe Grok, if powerful enough, will indeed help us 'understand the true nature of the universe.' But Justin Pearson and other Boxtown community members see Musk as just the latest in a long line of extractive figures, who think they can treat Memphis like pawns on a chessboard. 'We are hurting and dying from these illnesses, and so the way that they came in tells us everything about what they think about us,' he says. 'They do not care.' This story was supported by Tarbell Grants.

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