Adam Bandt, Monique Ryan on the edge as Gisele Kapterian takes slender lead in Bradfield: Inside the election races going down to the wire
Adam Bandt and Monique Ryan are both at risk of losing their seats, while Gisele Kapterian has taken a slender lead over Nicolette Boele in Bradfield as races in a handful of key seats appear set to go down to the wire.
While Labor secured a comprehensive victory in the federal election on Saturday, winning 88 seats as of Tuesday night, 12 electorates remain up for grabs.
Among those still in the balance are the seat of Melbourne, currently held by Mr Bandt, as well as the Teal-held Kooyong, with both electorates representing major prizes for Labor and the Coalition.
Read on for the state of play in every key undecided seat. Bradfield
The battle in one of the nation's most well heeled electorates could come down to as few as 200 votes, as Teal candidate Nicolette Boele pushes to capitalise on the retirement of Liberal MP Paul Fletcher.
Ms Boele had led the race throughout most of polling day and into the start of the week, only for Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian to take the narrowest of leads on Tuesday.
Ms Kapterian was ahead by 178 votes as of Tuesday evening, with early voters and mail-in ballots appearing to favour her over her Teal rival.
A victory for the Liberal candidate would represent a rare positive from an otherwise dismal election result for the Coalition, as well as inflict a blow on the Climate 200-backed Teals, who have failed to build substantially on wins in the 2022 campaign. Kooyong
Another seat featuring a shootout between the Liberal Party and Teals is Kooyong in Victoria.
Incumbent Monique Ryan won a shock victory over former Liberal heavyweight Josh Frydenberg in 2022, with the major party desperate to reclaim what had previously been a safe seat.
Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer admitted on Tuesday she had almost called her rival to concede on election night, but was dissuaded by campaign advisors before a surge of support saw her chances of victory grow considerably.
"I actually did speak to the team and I said: 'Look, should I call and concede?'," she told 3AW.
"The team said to me: 'No, it does look like what's coming out of pre-poll is much more positive'.
"I trust my team and so we hung on."
Ms Ryan led Ms Hamer by 1,002 votes as of Tuesday night, with 21.6 per cent of the vote still to count.
A large enough swing away from the Teal candidate in pre-poll votes would see Ms Hamer reclaim the blue-ribbon seat. Melbourne
The Greens are facing a near total wipeout in the Lower House, with leader Adam Bandt in serious danger of losing his seat.
Mr Bandt has held Melbourne since 2010, but Labor's Sarah Witty held a more than 4,000 vote lead as of Tuesday evening.
Preference flows will likely decide a contest most analysts are describing as incredibly close.
Postal votes have been breaking in favour of Ms Witty and the Greens leader had been receiving only around 23 per cent of preferences.
Mr Bandt likely needs to win more than a third of preferences to hold the seat.
If the Greens leader is defeated it would mark a serious repudiation of the party's recent direction, with controversial anti-Israel rhetoric and support for the militant CFMEU potentially souring voters on the minor party.
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"This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it." Embattled premier Jeremy Rockliff has vowed to fight and win a snap election, but speculation is growing his Tasmanian Liberal colleagues will deny him the chance. Tasmania's lower house passed a motion of no confidence in Mr Rockliff on Thursday, just 15 months into the minority government's four-year term. The vote was an episode in spiralling political brinkmanship, with the premier warning opposition leader Dean Winter he would advise for an early election if his motion succeeded. The prevailing political wisdom is the Rockliff government will lose an election, with veteran Liberal political operative Brad Stansfield saying they would be "annihilated" in a winter campaign. However, parliament's dissolution is not due until after Tuesday, given the need to pass a stop-gap budget bill before the election campaign. The delay across the King's Birthday long weekend gives the 17 members of the Liberal party room - including 14 who will put their seats at risk in a campaign - plenty of time to rethink their support for Mr Rockliff. "It's probably 70 to 80 per cent likely that either over the weekend or following the appropriation bill going through on Tuesday, Jeremy won't be leader," former premier David Bartlett told AAP. "It won't be a coup. It will be a smooth transition of power to a new leader and Jeremy will be under all sorts of pressure from internal Liberal party people to make that happen. "I'm not even convinced Jeremy Rockliff wants to go to another election. He'd probably rather retire to the farm." Mr Bartlett led a Labor government between 2008-2011, including the 2010 election which required him - like Mr Rockliff after the 2024 poll - to govern in minority. He said there were no shortage of options for a new leader, who would need to organise support from enough crossbenchers to stave off an election. "Eric Abetz is ambitious, Michael Ferguson still has a baton in the knapsack, Guy Barnett is ambitious and Madeleine Ogilvie is ambitious," he said. Mr Stansfield, who has advised the Liberals to four straight election wins, said the Liberals' charge to an election was "lemming-like behaviour". "They have willingly chosen to go to their own political execution rather than change their policies or change their leader in order to stay in power," he told the FontCast podcast. Former Liberal Premier Will Hodgman attacked the vote of no confidence, saying it was "politically reckless, and seriously damaging to Tasmania's reputation" on social media. AAP has spoken with multiple past and present MPs and advisers, who have confirmed Liberal MPs are privately canvassing options to topple Mr Rockliff and avoid an election. Mr Stansfield - who confirmed dissenting voices in the partyroom over the election position - said Mr Rockliff's position was secure. "The die is cast. They have chosen to follow their leader to an election that they will lose," he said. Liberal senator for Tasmania Jonno Duniam was incredulous about the leadership speculation. "They could choose to change leader - I'm not a part of that party room, I'm not going to tell them what to do," he told the ABC. "This is nuts that we're going to an election." Mr Rockliff on Friday travelled to his home region of the north-west coast, the same community which experienced the deaths of six children in a 2021 bouncy castle tragedy. He opted against a public appearance, given it came on the same day a verdict was finally reached on workplace health and safety failings behind the incident. "Today politics must be put aside. Another heart wrenching day, as we relive the trauma of the Hillcrest tragedy," he posted on social media. After losing the no-confidence vote, Mr Rockliff gave an emotional address to parliament where he revealed he fought off internal opponents to stand by the billion-dollar Hobart waterfront stadium which would house a Tasmanian AFL team - but is unpopular with voters. "I've been advised by all the hard-heads in my party not to go down that track. Why? Because it's bad for votes," he said. "Well, I've always said 'stuff votes' ... I'll say it for the stadium for as long as I damn well live, because I believe in it."
