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Trump-inspired candidate narrowly ahead in Poland's presidential election, second exit poll shows

Trump-inspired candidate narrowly ahead in Poland's presidential election, second exit poll shows

Sky News01-06-2025
Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who draws inspiration from Donald Trump, is set to narrowly win Poland's presidential election, according to a late exit poll.
An Ipsos poll said Mr Nawrocki has secured 50.7% of votes while his opponent, the Liberal pro-EU candidate Rafal Trzaskowski, has 49.3%.
The late exit poll was released just hours after a previous one called the result the other way round.
The first - also by Ipsos - said Mr Nawrocki was on track to receive 49.7% of the votes, with his rival on 50.3%. Both polls have margins of error of two percentage points.
The electoral commission has said it hopes the final results will be announced on Monday morning or in the afternoon.
After the first poll, both men declared victory.
Mr Trzaskowski, 53, has promised to ease abortion restrictions, introduce civil partnerships for LGBT couples and promote constructive ties with European partners.
Appearing at an election evening event in Warsaw, he waved as a crowd chanted his name.
"We won," Mr Trzaskowski told supporters, before vowing to be a president for all Poles, including those who did not vote for him.
But Mr Nawrocki, 42, said he believed the vote would turn in his favour. "We must win tonight," he said.
He had positioned himself as a defender of traditional Polish values, aligning himself with US conservatives, including Mr Trump, and showing scepticism towards the EU.
This vote shows how democratic decisions can come down to slight margins
Adam Parsons
Europe correspondent
@adamparsons
The Polish election is not short of interest.
The turnout may well be the highest ever for a presidential election and it's been followed keenly around the world.
The political views of the candidates are - and apologies for the terrible pun - poles apart.
One is desperate for closer ties with Europe, greater reforms domestically and keen to extend the hand of friendship to Ukraine.
The other is determined to rein in the Polish prime minister's programme of change, grow closer ties with America and stop Ukraine joining the EU.
And there is very little between them.
Two exit polls predicted a result too close to call.
It's also a good demonstration of how big democratic decisions can come down to slight margins.
In a country with more than 28 million voters, this election could be decided by a difference of fewer than 100,000.
A final result won't come until Monday - possible into the afternoon.
Normally, by that point, we know who's going to win and one candidate has already claimed victory.
So far, we don't know the outcome, and both candidates have claimed victory.
This one will be tight.
The vote has been closely watched in neighbouring Ukraine as well as in Russia, the European Union and the United States - and the final outcome will decide whether Poland pivots towards more liberal norms or takes a more nationalist path.
Poland's new president will have significant influence over whether the country's centrist government can fulfil its agenda, given the presidential power to veto laws.
This runoff follows a tightly-contested first round of voting in May, which saw Mr Trzaskowski win just over 31% and Mr Nawrocki nearly 30%, eliminating 11 other candidates.
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