logo
As interest rates normalise, private credit can help portfolios

As interest rates normalise, private credit can help portfolios

Business Times2 days ago
'HOW did you go bankrupt?' 'Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.' – Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises
Often quoted and widely recycled, that response from Mike Campbell – the fictional once-wealthy friend of Jake Barnes, narrator in Hemingway's novel – captures more than just personal financial woes. It's an apt description of how long-running trends unravel – first with subtle shifts, then with violent clarity.
Economist Rudiger Dornbusch put it more clinically: 'In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.'
Both sentiments apply to today's bond market.
For nearly four decades, falling interest rates created a generational tailwind for fixed income. Bonds didn't just pay income, they delivered capital appreciation, diversification, and ballast. Now, that dynamic is breaking down. Prices have fallen, and correlations have flipped. The 40 per cent in a 60/40 portfolio – which comprises fixed income, the supposedly steady part – has become a problem.
But there's one corner of the market that has held steady amid all this instability: private credit.
BT in your inbox
Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.
Sign Up
Sign Up
From tailwind to headwind
The bond bull market began in 1981, when then-Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker engineered a brutal double-dip recession to break inflation's back. At the time, the 10-year Treasury yield peaked near 16 per cent.
What followed was a 39-year stretch of disinflation, financial globalisation, and central bank credibility, which drove yields lower and bond prices higher.
For fixed income investors, it was a golden era where being long duration paid off. A simple strategy of buying 10-year Treasuries and rolling them annually would have delivered over 8 per cent in annualised returns from 1981 to 2020.
The Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index returned a similarly impressive 8 per cent over that same period. Bonds weren't just a buffer against equity risk; they were a consistent source of performance.
But that golden era followed a very different one. In the 35 years before 1981, yields climbed steadily and were far more volatile. Bondholders clipped coupons while watching principal values erode. Price appreciation simply wasn't part of the fixed income playbook. There were no 'total return' bond funds because, frankly, there was no total return to chase.
The middle ground
We're not heading back to the 1970s. The US economy is structurally stronger; the Fed is more disciplined; and the lessons of the Volcker era still hold.
But we're also not in a new bond bull market. Instead, we're in a period of normalisation where rates are higher than the recent past but still lower than long-term historical norms.
Following the global financial crisis (GFC), the Fed supported the bull market in bonds with quantitative easing. But in 2022, the central bank began reducing its balance sheet, and by continuing to let its Treasury holdings mature without reinvesting the proceeds, it has kept upward pressure on rates with the increased supply.
Increased fiscal spending and higher deficits bring uncertainty and expectations of higher future Treasury issuance, increasing the term premium demanded by investors.
This middle ground comes with consequences: greater volatility and interest rate risk, less price support, and less reliable diversification.
We've written extensively about how rising rates scramble traditional asset class relationships. In 2022, when the Fed launched its most aggressive hiking cycle in decades, the longstanding negative correlation between stocks and bonds broke down. Since then, the two have moved in the same direction in 31 of the past 40 months, nearly 80 per cent of the time – a dynamic that undermines the very foundation of balanced portfolios.
If you believe that we're beginning a normalised inflationary regime, different from the sub-2 per cent post-GFC era, the unreliable stock-bond correlation is likely to continue. Based on historical data, the stock-bond correlation becomes positive beginning at 2 per cent inflation, strengthening as inflation increases.
It's not just the lack of diversification that's troubling. Bond market volatility, once rare, is becoming routine as a result of policy uncertainty. Modest data surprises or policy comments now trigger exaggerated moves across the yield curve, and central banks retreating as a steady source of demand has reduced market liquidity that helped keep bond prices stable and predictable.
Once major buyers of Treasuries, central banks are pulling back as rising yields in markets such as Germany and Japan make US Treasuries less appealing, especially after factoring in currency hedging costs. At the same time, heightened uncertainty has caused the term premium to resurface, hitting an 11-year high in May.
Investors are demanding more compensation for interest rate risk, reflecting a structurally different regime. In April, high-yield bond prices suffered their steepest drop since the early days of the pandemic – second only to March 2020.
Private credit's quiet consistency
While public credit markets have endured drawdowns and dislocations, private credit has functioned as intended, providing financing to borrowers and liquidity to private equity sponsors without disruption.
That resilience is showing up in the data. April's tariff-driven volatility caused liquid credit spreads to swing sharply – widening in one of the most significant moves in history, before recovering around 71 per cent by early May.
In contrast, the private credit market operated as usual, providing a stable source of funding for companies throughout the turmoil.
Private credit's advantages are structural. In a world of higher rates and unpredictable correlations, it can offer insulation from policy shifts, with floating rates and lower correlation to public markets.
The private credit model brings lenders (investors) directly to borrowers in a 'farm to table' model, reducing the role of bank intermediaries and giving back this spread to investors.
The strategy's floating rate nature reduces exposure to interest rate risk, leaving credit risk as the primary concern – one that experienced managers seek to address through careful underwriting, active portfolio management, and within private investment-grade credit, a focus on first-lien senior secured debt.
Historically, private credit has delivered steady cash flows, limited volatility, and a reliable alternative source of return.
Importantly, the private credit space extends far beyond traditional direct lending. Today, the total addressable market for private credit exceeds US$30 trillion, a significant expansion from less than US$100 billion prior to the GFC.
Private asset-backed financing has become a vital source of capital for companies in high-growth areas such as energy, digital infrastructure, and transportation, while providing investors with hard asset collateral, amortising cash flows and over-collateralisation.
The continued growth of these sectors may expand the asset-backed financing opportunity and potentially give investors an increasingly diverse mix of private credit strategies, providing more resilient portfolios.
That's good news for investors, because as they confront the 40 per cent problem – the end of easy returns and automatic diversification from public traditional fixed income – they'll need to adapt. In a portfolio that's no longer self-balancing, we believe that tools like private credit are essential.
The writer is chief investment strategist, Blackstone Private Wealth Solutions
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

US tariffs, trade tensions to slow growth in developing Asia and Pacific: ADB
US tariffs, trade tensions to slow growth in developing Asia and Pacific: ADB

Business Times

time11 hours ago

  • Business Times

US tariffs, trade tensions to slow growth in developing Asia and Pacific: ADB

[MANILA] Higher US tariffs and trade uncertainty have worsened the economic outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report on Wednesday (Jul 23) as it lowered its growth forecasts for the region for this year and next. Domestic demand is expected to weaken as factors including geopolitics, supply chain disruptions, rising energy prices and uncertainty in China's property market buffer the region, the Asian Development Outlook report said. The ADB cut its 2025 growth forecast for the region to 4.7 per cent from an earlier projection of 4.9 per cent made in April. The forecast for 2026 was trimmed to 4.6 per cent, from 4.7 per cent. 'Asia and the Pacific has weathered an increasingly challenging external environment this year. But the economic outlook has weakened amid intensifying risks and global uncertainty,' said ADB chief economist Albert Park. Among the sub regions, South-east Asia was expected to slow the most, with growth now projected at 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, down from earlier forecasts of 4.7 per cent for both years. 'Economies in the region should continue strengthening their fundamentals and promoting open trade and regional integration to support investment, employment, and growth,' Park said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The ADB defines developing Asia and the Pacific as 46 economies ranging from China to Georgia to Samoa, and excluding countries such as Japan, Australia and New Zealand. The forecasts were released shortly after US President Donald Trump said that the US and Japan had struck a deal that includes a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese exports, lower than a threatened 25 per cent rate. Trump also announced a new 19 per cent tariff rate for goods from the Philippines, below the threatened 20 per cent levy flagged earlier this month but still above a 17 per cent rate announced in April. He has upended global trade flows with tariffs on nearly every trading partner, with almost all countries facing a 10 per cent tariff that took effect in April and many facing steep additional tariffs from Aug 1. AFP

Trump tariff deals bring some clarity for Asia, the world's manufacturing base
Trump tariff deals bring some clarity for Asia, the world's manufacturing base

Business Times

time12 hours ago

  • Business Times

Trump tariff deals bring some clarity for Asia, the world's manufacturing base

[HONG KONG] After months of uncertainty, US President Donald Trump's latest tariff deals are providing clarity on the broad contours of a new trade landscape for the world's biggest manufacturing region. On Tuesday (Jul 22), he announced a deal with Japan that sets tariffs on the nation's imports at 15 per cent, including for autos —– by far the biggest component of the trade deficit between the countries. A separate agreement with the Philippines set a 19 per cent rate, the same level as Indonesia agreed and a percentage point below Vietnam's 20 per cent baseline level, signaling that the bulk of South-east Asia is likely to get a similar rate. 'We live in a new normal where 10 per cent is the new zero and so 15 per cent and 20 per cent doesn't seem so bad if everyone else got it,' said Trinh Nguyen, senior economist for emerging Asia at Natixis. 'At a 15-20 per cent tariff level, it's still profitable for US companies to import from abroad rather than produce similar goods at home, she said. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he will meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for a third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions. That suggests a continuing stabilisation in ties between the world's two largest economies after the US recently eased chip curbs and China resumed rare earths exports. 'We are getting along with China very well,' Trump told reporters on Tuesday. 'We have a very good relationship.' BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up Throw it all together and a level of predictability is finally emerging after six months of tariff threats that had at one point jacked up tariff levels to 145 per cent on China and near 50 per cent on some smaller Asian exporters. Investors cheered the moves, with Asian shares rising the most in a month and contracts for the S&P 500 up 0.2 per cent. The Nikkei-225 index in Japan jumped 3.2 per cent, with Toyota Motor and other carmakers leading the gains. 'What's been interesting to me is that equity markets still have been fairly rosy about the changes,' said the Asian Development Bank's chief economist Albert Park. 'I'm not sure they have priced in fully all of the effects that are likely to occur from the disruption of higher tariff rates.' Back in April, Trump hit the pause button on the steepest levies after a rare combination of weakening US stocks, bonds and the dollar showed investors were unnerved by his protectionist salvos. That bought time for policymakers from Tokyo, Manila and across the globe to negotiate more palatable deals. Although the latest deals bring some relief, key questions remain. The Trump administration is still considering a range of sectoral tariffs on goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals that will be critical for Asian economies including Taiwan and India – both of which have yet to announce tariff agreements with the US. South Korea is also more exposed to sectoral tariffs, even though the Japan deal provides a potential template for new President Lee Jae Myung. As Trump moves quickly on talks with countries accounting for the bulk of the US trade deficit, he has said he may hit around 150 smaller countries with a blanket rate of between 10 per cent and 15 per cent. With some certainty on tariff levels now emerging, businesses with complex supply chains across Asia and still reliant of the US consumer can start to game out how they will shift operations to minimize the hit to sales. Just like the first trade war in 2018, the latest tariff announcements are likely to spur companies to increasingly shift production outside of China. The average tariff rate on the world's second-largest economy remains the highest in the region, and continued White House pressure on the nation's technology and trade ambitions means companies may find more stability elsewhere. Companies and industry groups have been flagging for months that uncertainty is worse than tariffs for investment. The manufacturing sector across the South-east Asian region saw the most notable weakening since August 2021, according to S&P PMI, led by a sharper decrease in new orders, major job cuts and weaker purchasing activity. The front-loading of shipments from Asia to the US to get ahead of the incoming levies will likely slow once the new rates kick in. While there is relief that tariff rates for South-east Asian economies and 15 per cent for Japan are lower than some of Trump's earlier threats, the reality is that they are far higher than they were before he took office in January. The latest deals 'continue the trend of tariff rates gravitating towards the 15-20% range that Trump recently indicated to be his preferred level for the blanket rate instead of 10% currently,' Barclays analysts including Brian Tan wrote in a note. That skews risks to GDP growth forecasts for Asia 'to the downside', they wrote. For US consumers who have so far been spared the tariff ticket shock, economists warn there's likely to be some pass through in the months ahead. Goldman Sachs economists now expect the US baseline 'reciprocal' tariff rate will rise from 10 per cent to 15 per cent – an outcome that threatens to fuel inflation and weigh on economic growth. US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has argued he wants to see where tariffs land and how they filter through the economy before cutting interest rates – much to the annoyance of Trump. For now, Trump is hailing a win on trade, and investors seem overall relieved. 'I just signed the largest trade deal in history – I think maybe the largest deal in history – with Japan,' Trump said at an event at the White House on Tuesday after announcing the deal on social media. 'It's a great deal for everybody.' BLOOMBERG

BOJ sees trade deal as raising chance of meeting inflation goal
BOJ sees trade deal as raising chance of meeting inflation goal

Business Times

time13 hours ago

  • Business Times

BOJ sees trade deal as raising chance of meeting inflation goal

[TOKYO] Japan's trade deal with the US has reduced uncertainty surrounding the economy, the central bank's deputy governor Shinichi Uchida said, signalling optimism that conditions for resuming interest rate hikes may start to fall in place. Uchida's remark came hours after US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Tokyo that cuts tariffs on Japan's mainstay automobile imports and spares Tokyo punishing new levies on some other goods. 'It's a very big progress that reduces uncertainty for Japan's economy,' Uchida said on Wednesday (Jul 23), adding that the BOJ will incorporate the deal in its quarterly growth and price projections due at the next policy meeting on July 30-31. 'Given the receding uncertainty, by definition it can be said that the likelihood of Japan durably achieving 2 per cent inflation has heightened,' Uchida told a news conference. BOJ policymakers have repeatedly said they need to be more convinced that inflation will sustainably hit its 2 per cent target before raising interest rates further. While there was still some uncertainty on how the tariffs could affect domestic and overseas economies, the BOJ was looking at both upside and downside risks to economic activity and prices, Uchida said. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up 'The BOJ needs to adjust monetary policy to best balance upside and downside risks from the perspective of maintaining economic and price stability,' Uchida said in an earlier speech to business leaders in the southern west city of Kochi. He reiterated the BOJ's resolve to continue raising interest rates if the economy and prices move in line with its forecasts. Sources have told Reuters the BOJ's next quarterly report will warn of uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs, but may offer a less gloomy view on the near-term hit to the economy than three months ago, when market volatility was at its peak. Uchida said the trade deal would hugely reduce uncertainty for companies and, coupled with intensifying labour shortages, prod them to continue to hike wages. The BOJ expects underlying inflation, or price rises driven by strength in domestic demand, to reach its 2 per cent target around the latter half of fiscal 2026 through 2027, he added. While media reports that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may step down could add to political uncertainty, receding worries about a US-Japan trade deal led some analysts to predict the chance of another rate hike by the end of this year. 'The trade deal with the US announced today removes a key downside risk to Japan's economy,' said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics. 'And while the potential resignation of Ishiba creates political risks, our conviction that the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle before the end of the year has risen,' Thieliant said. A Reuters poll showed a majority of economists expect the BOJ to raise its key interest rate again by year-end, though most expect the bank to stand pat at this month's meeting. REUTERS

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store