States where residents could see the biggest tax benefit from Trump's 'big beautiful bill'
In 2026, individual taxpayers will save an average of $3,752, according to a Tax Foundation analysis released this week. That figure falls to $2,505 in 2030 as some tax breaks expire, such as the $40,000 limit on the federal deduction for state and local taxes, known as SALT.
After falling for several years, the average tax cut could rise to $3,301 in 2035 once inflation boosts the value of permanent cuts. "That's an interesting pattern" over the 10 years, Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC.
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The average tax savings vary by state or county, as well as individual tax circumstances, the analysis found. "A lot of it does correlate with income," Watson said. However, top earners can skew the average tax cuts higher, he said.
Here are the top 10 average tax cuts for 2026 by state, based on the Tax Foundation analysis:
By comparison, taxpayers in Mississippi, West Virginia, New Mexico, Kentucky and Alabama will see the lowest average tax cuts in 2026, all below $3,000, according to the analysis.
The Tax Foundation's analysis also reviewed Trump's tax cuts at the county level, based on the latest IRS data from 2022. Some of the largest average tax cuts by county for 2026 were among resort towns, the report found.
For example, researchers estimate that Teton County in Wyoming, which includes Jackson Hole, could see an average tax cut of $37,373 per taxpayer in 2026. Meanwhile, Pitkin County, Colorado, which covers Aspen, could be $21,363. In Summit County, Utah, including Park City, the average tax cut could be $14,537 in 2026.
Of course, higher-income individuals are "greatly skewing the average tax cut" in some of these resort areas, Watson said.
By comparison, the smallest average tax cuts are found in rural counties, such as Loup County, Nebraska, where the average tax break could be only $824 in 2026.
Trump's legislation could benefit higher earners while hurting lower-income Americans, according to a Congressional Budget Office report released this week.
On average, "household resources will increase" between 2026 and 2034, mostly due to lower federal income taxes, Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office, wrote in the report.
But the effects "vary by channel and across the income distribution," he wrote.
Top earners could see a $13,600 benefit per year in 2025 dollars, while the bottom percentile would see resources fall by $1,200 annually, the CBO report found. The shortfall for lower-income Americans would mainly be due to cuts to Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP.
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