Why Pre-Earnings Volatility Cannot Disrupt Moët Hennessy's (LVMH) Market Moat

Business Insider

4 days ago

Luxury and discounts rarely go hand in hand, but that's precisely the situation with LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (LVMUY), commonly known as LVMH. With a pivotal earnings call scheduled for Thursday this week, the stock is currently trading at historically low levels—a surprising development for a global luxury leader.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
However, this valuation gap comes with valid explanations. The company has experienced revenue decline in recent years, accompanied by narrowing profit margins. This reflects a broader slowdown in luxury spending, particularly among Chinese consumers, as well as some erosion in pricing power for LVMH's premier brands.
That said, from a qualitative standpoint, LVMH maintains a formidable competitive moat, underpinned by its industry-leading position and revenue diversification that outpaces its peers—factors that arguably support a premium valuation.
As the company enters the second half of 2025, navigating a cautious recovery and aiming to reassure shareholders of its long-term growth potential while carefully managing pricing to preserve margins, the current cyclical downturn could offer a compelling entry point for long-term investors. With that in mind, I am maintaining a Buy rating on LVMUY.
A Luxury Empire Beyond Louis Vuitton
When investing in a company like LVMH, the bet is not on a single brand or product, but on a well-managed luxury suite that leverages diversification (from fashion and jewelry to cosmetics) and smart acquisitions (such as Tiffany & Co. and Dior) to generate returns that exceed the risk-free rate.
From a bottom-up perspective, LVMH clearly possesses a wide economic moat as the global leader in the luxury sector. Its portfolio is anchored by some of the world's most iconic brands, supported by strong corporate governance. The Arnault family's control of approximately 48% of voting rights ensures aligned incentives, reinforcing a long-term focus on profitable growth across the organization.
Luxury is naturally a cyclical segment, but with a twist: the ultra-wealthy continue to spend even during downturns, which makes the business model surprisingly resilient and gives it a degree of recurring demand.
What truly sets LVMH apart from its peers, in my view, is the breadth and balance of its brand portfolio. Competitors like Kering (PPRUY), which heavily relies on Gucci, and Richemont (CFRUY), with its reliance on Cartier, derive nearly half of their revenues and about two-thirds of their operating profit from a single brand.
In contrast, Louis Vuitton contributes only around a quarter of LVMH's total revenue and approximately half of its operating profit. This diversification makes LVMH structurally more resilient than its peers during downturns—as demonstrated during the COVID-19 shock in 2020 and the market volatility of 2022.
Luxury's Cyclical Dip and a Slower Path Ahead
As mentioned earlier, regarding the cyclicality of the luxury industry, LVMH's ADR is down more than 45% since reaching its all-time high in mid-2023. Over the last five years, LVMH grew its revenue by 34% in 2021, driven by post-COVID 'revenge spending,' with its share price riding the rebound. In 2022, revenue growth settled at 16%, and optimism carried into 2023 as markets bet big on a vast, sustained boost from China's reopening.
But that surge never fully materialized. Chinese consumers proved to be more cautious than expected, weighed down by a real estate crisis and weak domestic confidence. At the same time, 'aspirational' buyers (middle-class) in Europe and the U.S. pulled back, resulting in only 12% revenue growth for LVMH in 2023, clearly marking a slowdown.
Higher interest rates in 2023 and 2024 didn't help either. Premium- growth stocks like LVMH took a hit as the environment that once justified paying 35x earnings quickly faded. The result is now LVMH's ADR trading at more depressed levels, especially after revenue shrank by 7.8% in 2024.
Looking ahead, the outlook is for growth to pick back up as early as 2025, with consensus expecting revenue to increase about 8.15% from last year and to average around 5% per year through 2026 and 2027. Still, this pace is far from the boom of the previous five years, and the bottom line is following suit, with operating margins down from a peak of 27% in 2023 to 23% today.
Watching Margins and Valuation as Earnings Approach
Unlike U.S. companies that report full profit and loss (P&L) statements every quarter, LVMH, like many big European firms, provides quarterly revenue updates but only discloses full profit details twice a year. The upcoming semi-annual earnings release is expected on July 24th.
Based on hints from management during the company's Q1 earnings call, it has become clear that price hikes won't be used to drive top-line growth this time. Instead, for Q2, they've focused on pushing a sales mix with higher-ticket items. In my view, revenues will likely remain soft, but protecting margins remains a top priority. It's also worth noting that LVMH has tended to miss EPS expectations lately, having fallen short for five consecutive reporting periods.
Lastly, considering valuations, LVMH currently trades at approximately 20.5x earnings—a slight premium to the industry average of 17x, but roughly 6.3% below its own historical average. This gap highlights the market's current caution regarding the company's growth story.
Even so, LVMH is still delivering a return on invested capital of around 14%, although that's well below the 20.5% peak in 2023. In theory, with a reasonable WACC of 8–9%, considerable value is still being created despite these more typical returns. Still, the discounted multiple clearly shows that investors are pricing in this slower ROIC trajectory.
Is LVMUY a Good Stock to Buy Now?
As things stand, LVMH trades under two distinct tickers. One in the U.S. is listed as 'LVMUY' via over-the-counter (OTC) trading. However, most analysts are looking at LVMH's French stock listing when providing their period ratings, under the stock ticker ' MC '.
LVMH stock carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on nine bullish and nine neutral ratings over the past three months. Not a single analyst is currently bearish on LVMH stock. Currently, LVMH's average stock price target stands at €570.92, implying ~22% upside from the latest share price.
Cyclical Headwinds Indicate Value Creation Ahead for LVMH
LVMH's recent weak performance fully reflects the cyclical nature of the luxury market, which has faced strong headwinds since 2023, mainly due to softer demand from Chinese consumers, only partially offset by steady but mature demand in Europe. Overall, luxury spending remains well below the levels seen during the post-COVID rebound.
Looking ahead, LVMH still commands premium pricing power, and the group's moat as a diversified fashion and luxury conglomerate remains strong. I also expect margins to hold up reasonably well in the second half of this year, although they may come under some pressure from input costs and currency factors.
In my view, LVMH is trading at multiples only slightly below its historical average, reflecting this current 'limbo' phase as investors wait for clearer signs of a gradual return to trend growth. That said, while the near-term story is one of stabilization, the long-term trend still points to solid value creation at today's prices. For this reason, I remain confidently Bullish on LVMH stock.