The Israelis did a great job on Iran. But there's one possible flaw in their plan

Telegraph

13-06-2025

The initial strike against Iran's nuclear facilities and their internal champions has been remarkably successful from a tactical and operational standpoint. But all sides will need to think deeply about their next move since the stakes on both sides are so high. Much depends on Iran's wider response, the duration and intensity of further Israeli action and international involvement – especially from the US.
At first glance, key elements of Iran's nuclear/military infrastructure have been crippled, whilst avoiding a major nuclear breach or uncontrollable escalation. The avoidance of civilian casualties also sends a clear message to the benighted Iranian people – we are after your oppressive leadership, not you. It is a message that the mullahs and their surviving senior military leadership will have to address urgently.
There is one thing I might have done differently if I were in charge. In 1944 the RAF in Burma were confident that they had the coordinates of Japanese General Mutaguchi's HQ and sought permission to eliminate him. Field Marshal Slim responded: 'under no circumstances. He is an asset. I can read him like a book'.
Hossein Salami took command of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force after the wily and clever Quasim Soleimani was eliminated by a US drone strike in 2020 during the last Trump presidency. Salami was a blowhard who achieved very little before the Israelis killed him. Salami, along with the Chief of Staff of the Iranian armed forces, Mohammed Baghri and his deputy, Gloamali Rashid, represented the institutionally ossified Iranian military post Soleimani.
With them out of the way courtesy of the Israelis the real danger is that a capable new leadership emerges to strike back at Israel and perhaps even the US in a more indirect and effective way. The launch of 100 drones into the night sky – all to be intercepted – was an ineffectual response characteristic of the now departed leadership. The new bosses may have more effective solutions. It is understood that Ahmad Vahidi is now in charge but he may be only temporary. A former Quds force commander and IRGC intelligence branch head, Vahidi could prove to be a formidable foe if he stays in place. Other candidates include Mohammad Kazemi, head of the IRGC intelligence unit, and head of counter-intelligence, Majid Khademi.
I am in no doubt that Vahidi will be mobilizing his proxies across the region and his cells in Europe for potential terror strikes in response. He will have to be a little more careful in mobilizing the militias the Quds Force sponsors in Iraq. A nowadays more confident and self-reliant Iraq may not take kindly to being used in other people's wars.
In any case this is only round one, and indeed more Israeli strikes are reportedly underway. There will be quiet satisfaction in capitals across the Middle East and beyond over events so far. Internally in Iran there may also be some silent applause for the strikes against an unpopular and oppressive regime. More widely, as oil prices spike and international air travel is disrupted the rest of us will have to hold tight and hope for the best.
We might just be on the verge of an effective Iranian response that the now eliminated previous leadership would have been incapable of.