Aaron Rodgers film review: What does the QB have left in the tank for the Steelers?

New York Times

3 days ago

If you can get past the understandable Aaron Rodgers fatigue, you see the quarterback played some good ball down the stretch last season for the New York Jets. He looked more comfortable, mobile and confident than he did in the first half of his first season returning from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2023.
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He threw the ball with zip, got it downfield and even scrambled for yardage. Though his game is diminished and he can't create plays outside of structure, which was a major part of his succeess over the years, Rodgers could give the Steelers the best quarterback play they've had since Ben Roethlisberger before a sharp downturn in 2021, which says something about Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback carousel.
With his quick release and accuracy, Rodgers will always be an ace in the quick game. When given a clean pocket, he can still make tight-window throws downfield with the best of them. Where his game has diminished most is in his ability to make plays outside the pocket and effortlessly make difficult throws off-platform. He can still occasionally throw an off-platform dime, but his passes would end up just missing for him most of the time last season. He can't generate enough torque from his hips like in his prime. Rodgers' numbers were ugly last season, but the Jets' pass protection was terrible and the receivers dropped passes at the league's third-highest rate.
Week 15, 5:35 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10
On this play, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson were lined up opposite each other. The Jaguars defense played Cover 1 (man-to-man with one deep safety).
Rodgers looked to Adams first, which caused the free safety to bite in his direction, opening space down the seam for Wilson.
Without much of a reset, Rodgers generated enough power to make a strong throw on a line to Wilson 30 yards downfield.
Rodgers to Wilson! Jets TD!
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Surprisingly, after Week 8, Rodgers ranked 11th in expected points added (EPA) per scramble. He looks like he's running in quicksand, but he's still willing to run when the opportunity presents itself. Rodgers can put together one more good season if he can stay healthy, but he isn't close to the ceiling-raising player he was with the Green Bay Packers. He needs the Steelers to help him. Pittsburgh has a stacked offensive roster but enough pieces to be effective.
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Fortifying the space in front of an aging quarterback is arguably more important than having a surplus of talent at receiver. The Steelers have a formidable interior. Center Zach Frazier is a legitimate star at the position. Left guard Isaac Seumalo hasn't played up to his big free-agent contract, but he's at least a plus starter at the position. And right guard, Mason McCormick had a solid rookie season and has the potential to improve.
The ceiling for this offensive line will depend on the tackles. Broderick Jones, the Steelers' first-round pick in 2023, is a physically gifted player who was always seen as something of a project. He has played more on the right side of the line. This season will be the first in which he can focus on the left side, where he says he's more comfortable. Right tackle Troy Fautanu, last year's first-round pick, was injured in preseason and played only 55 snaps before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Both tackles have potential but are big questions heading into the season. Rodgers won't hold on to the ball too long, which will help the line. His 2.79-second average time to throw ranked the 36th among qualifying quarterbacks. For context, Russell Wilson ranked the 10th highest (3.03).
Perhaps more important than pass protection for Rodgers at this point in his career is run blocking. The Steelers cannot ask Rodgers to pass at a high rate, not that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith would want to anyway. Last season, the Steelers finished 25th in rushing success rate and yards made before contact. With the investments the Steelers have made to their line, they must run-block better. Third-round pick Kaleb Johnson is a better fit in Smith's outside zone scheme than Najee Harris was. If the Steelers don't finish in the top 10 in rushing success rate, the Rodgers experiment will be yet another failed veteran quarterback venture.
Rodgers wants to be able to throw with anticipation. He wants to stay a step ahead of the defense and adjust routes and ball locations based on what the defense is doing. The problem is finding a receiver who thinks the way he does, which is why he prefers those he's played with, like Allen Lazard or Randall Cobb. However, it's hard to always be on the same page as Rodgers. Even Adams, with whom he had arguably more chemistry than any other receiver he played with in Green Bay, struggled to get back on the same page as him in New York after spending a couple of years apart.
Week 17, 14:43 remaining in the third quarter, second-and-9
Here, the Buffalo Bills showed a blitz to Rodgers' right just before the snap. Adams was lined up in the slot to Rodgers' left.
However, after the snap, the Bills' defensive end and linebacker to Rodgers' right backed into coverage and blitzed the linebacker to Rodgers' left, which caused him to throw hot. However, he didn't need to throw hot against a four-man rush and the protection sliding toward the blitz. Adams didn't expect a hot throw to the side the protection slid to and didn't get his head around right away.
The pass fell incomplete. Surprisingly, there were many instances when Rodgers and Adams weren't on the same page last season.
His No. 1 receiver is now DK Metcalf. In addition to being one of the best deep threats in the league, his ability to win on short routes and create after the catch fits exactly what Rodgers is seeking. However, Metcalf can ad-lib sometimes and get sloppy with his route running, and he isn't always where his quarterback expects. Ask Geno Smith. If Metcalf takes his route a step or two too deep and Rodgers lets go of the ball early and throws an incomplete pass, we'll see some ugly body language from both players. Metcalf is a physical freak, but he doesn't have the natural feel for the game like Jordy Nelson or Adams.
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Rodgers and Metcalf will make some spectacular plays together, but I can see them driving each other crazy on other plays. We'll see how much chemistry they can develop in their time together in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have sought a No. 2 receiver for years. They had a strong duo with George Pickens and Metcalf but decided that parting ways with Pickens, whose effort on the field was inconsistent, would be a net positive. There aren't many options to add through free agency or trade at this point. As mentioned, Rodgers needs a receiver he can trust to win in the short and intermediate parts of the field, with Metcalf lifting coverage. Tight end Pat Freiermuth should put up some strong numbers with Rodgers, but the Steelers need a more explosive option to emerge.
Calvin Austin became a solid option for the Steelers last season, catching 36 passes for 548 yards. The team has high hopes for Roman Wilson, whom it picked in the third round last season. Wilson suffered a high ankle sprain, which made him a nonfactor last season, but he has reportedly been impressive in OTAs. The team can also sign Keenan Allen, who is slow at this point in his career but can still be productive underneath. He could at least give Rodgers someone he can trust to be where he needs to be. Right now, the No. 2 receiver is a huge question mark.
Even when Rodgers had his career resuscitated playing in Matt LaFleur's system in Green Bay, he was complaining about how much motion was in the offense and pined for more control. After one of the worst seasons of his career, will Rodgers be humble and allow himself to become a point-and-shoot quarterback, rather than one who needs to have full control? Rodgers wants to play in a spread-out, static system in which he can read defenses and make checks at the line of scrimmage, and Smith wants to use a lot of heavy personnel, run the ball at a high rate and throw deep shots off play action.
Of course, there will be collaboration and give-and-take from Smith and Rodgers, but if the Steelers can't find a dependable No. 2 receiver, then expect to see them use a lot of multiple tight end sets again — second in 13 personnel (three tight ends usage last season) — which would limit what they do in the passing game. Also, Smith wants to attack the middle of the field on play action. Rodgers was never a middle-of-the-field merchant, but he should be more willing to do so than Wilson, who's been allergic to it his entire career. At this point in his career, Rodgers should know that relying on a strong running game is his best bet to survive an entire season and produce, but we'll see if he can check his ego.
There is a narrow pathway for Rodgers to put together a top-10 season in which we see the glimpse of the old Rodgers before he rides off into the sunset, but that would require the Steelers' offensive line to play like a top-10 unit, Rodgers to stay healthy for the entire season, the chemistry between Metcalf and Rodgers to hit the ground running and a legitimate breakout from one of their young receivers. That's a lot that needs to happen at the same time.
A more likely optimistic scenario is if the Steelers can be a borderline top-10 rushing attack, allowing them to scheme up throws for Rodgers and finish as a top-15 offense. That would be enough to win if their expensive defense can hold up. There's also potential for the whole thing to blow up like it did in New York, but coach Mike Tomlin has a knack for avoiding disaster.
The bottom line is Rodgers is the best quarterback Tomlin has had in years. Their ceiling is higher now, but will it be enough for them to win at least one playoff game in the AFC? Unlikely.
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Mike Stobe, Emilee Chinn / Getty Image)