Atlanta Fed shock sounds 'Trumpcession' warning: McGeever
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
ORLANDO, Florida - "Trumpcession".
If you haven't heard the term before, you will now, as a closely watched real-time U.S. economic weathervane is signalling that GDP is shrinking at the fastest pace since the pandemic lockdown.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for annualized growth in the current quarter was a stunning -2.8% on Monday, down from +2.3% last week. A month ago the model showed that growth in the January-March period was tracking close to +4.0%.
These estimates are published regularly as new economic data is released, and can be quite volatile. There were 11 in February alone. Friday's shock reading of -1.5% was led by a record-high $153 billion trade deficit in January, most likely as firms front-loaded imports ahead of tariffs, and Monday's decline was driven by soft manufacturing activity.
There's every chance -2.8% turns into a positive reading in a few weeks.
True, the Atlanta Fed number is an outlier for now. The New York Fed's equivalent Nowcast real-time tracking model was updated on Friday to +2.9% annualized growth in Q1 from +3.0%. And the Dallas Fed's "weekly economic index", which doesn't include the most recent data, was showing +2.4% on February 27.
But the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow real-time estimates are historically the most reliable of these models, and the negative figures didn't come out of nowhere. A lot of soft economic indicators, like sentiment surveys, have been extremely weak in recent weeks, and some hard economic activity indicators are flashing red too.
Consumer sentiment in January slumped the most in three and a half years, retail sales dropped by the most in nearly two years, real spending fell at the fastest rate since early 2021, and retail giant Walmart has warned of a tough year ahead. It's perhaps no surprise that Citi's U.S. economic surprises index has slid into negative territory, hitting the lowest point since September.
A common thread running through all of this is the huge level of uncertainty being created by U.S. President Donald Trump's agenda: trade protectionism, particularly tariffs; his apparent growing closeness with Russia and distance from traditional allies like Europe; and the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) scythe being taken to federal spending and employment.
NEGATIVE WEALTH EFFECT
Markets are certainly signaling there could be trouble ahead. The Nasdaq has lost as much as 9% in 10 days, with Big Tech down even more. Investors are seeking the safety of U.S. Treasuries: the two-year yield on Friday fell below 4.00% for the first time since October, and the 10-year yield has tumbled 60 bps since mid-January.
These moves could matter to the real economy because of the "wealth effect". As Moody's Mark Zandi noted recently, the top 10% of American households now account for around half of all consumer spending. That's a record. They also own a lot of stocks, and if Wall Street is heading south, they are more likely to tighten their belts.
Economist Phil Suttle said he expected Trump's agenda to weigh on the economy this year, but didn't expect it to have such an apparently negative impact so quickly. But if the "blunt and chaotic" implementation of Trump's spending and trade policies hit growth harder than imagined, the Federal Reserve may cut rates in the second quarter, Suttle reckons.
The Fed's rate-cutting cycle is on hold for now, largely because of the uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade and fiscal policies. But an impending "Trumpcession" probably wasn't on policymakers' mind when they pressed the pause button. It likely is now.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
(By Jamie McGeever)
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Al Etihad
an hour ago
- Al Etihad
Mohammed bin Rashid lays foundation stone for Dubai Metro Blue Line
9 June 2025 17:12 DUBAI (ALETIHAD)His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE, and Ruler of Dubai, attended the foundation stone laying ceremony of the Dubai Metro Blue Line, a key milestone in the expansion of the city's public transportation network. Spanning 30 km and comprising 14 stations, the new line is set to transform mobility across nine key districts, projected to be home to over one million residents, as outlined in the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Highness also approved the distinctive architectural design of the iconic Emaar Properties Station, the highest metro station in the world, standing at 74 metres. Inspired by the concept of a crossing gateway, the station was designed by the renowned American architectural firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM), one of the world's leading design studios. The firm's portfolio includes iconic landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa, the Olympic Tower in New York, and the Sears Tower in station is designed to integrate harmoniously into the existing urban environment and embodies the vision of 'Dubai: A Gateway to the Future'. Covering an area of approximately 11,000 square metres, the station is designed to accommodate up to 160,000 passengers per day, with the number of daily users expected to exceed 70,000 by 2040. With the completion of the Blue Line project, Dubai's rail network will expand to a total of 131 km, comprising 78 stations and 168 arriving at the venue of the ceremony, His Highness was welcomed by His Excellency Mattar Al Tayer, Director General, Chairman of the Board of Executive Directors of the Roads and Transport Authority. At the start of the ceremony, His Highness viewed a historical gallery showcasing the dream of the late Sheikh Rashid bin Saeed Al Maktoum for constructing a metro line connecting Dubai districts. It included a collection of photographs from His Highness's visits to several world capitals, as well as rare images of him using the railway network in the United Kingdom, where the idea of constructing a similar project in Dubai was conceived. Exceptional Growth His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid was briefed by Al Tayer on the expansion of metro services, including the growth in ridership, station design, number of stations, and train carriages. The Dubai Metro has transported over 2.527 billion passengers from its launch on 9/9/2009 through the end of 2024. The Metro recorded a daily average of 900,000 passengers in has grown steadily over the years, from 38.887 million in 2010 to 69 million in 2011, reflecting a growth rate of 77%. It continued to rise to over 109 million passengers in 2012, before surpassing 200 million in 2017, jumping to 260 million in 2023 and hitting 275.4 million in to studies, the number of Dubai Metro passengers is expected to exceed 300 million in 2026 and reach 320 million by 2031. His Highness was also briefed on the expansion of metro stations. The service began in 2009 with 10 stations, reaching 26 stations in 2010 and growing to 46 stations in 2011. By 2014, the Dubai Tram started operations, and the number of metro and tram stations soared to 56. In 2021, the launch of the Metro's Route 2020 added seven more stations, raising the total to 64. The upcoming Blue Line will add 14 new stations to the network, which will bring the total number to Highness was also briefed on the growth in the number of trains, which rose from 16 at the Metro's launch in 2009 to 44 in 2010. The figure reached 79 trains by 2011 and increased to 90 with the inauguration of the Dubai Tram in 2014, further expanding to 140 by 2021. With the Blue Line coming into operation, the total number of trains will increase to 168, comprising 157 Metro trains and 11 Tram Highness also reviewed the evolution of both the interior and exterior designs of metro stations. The exterior design of the elevated stations was inspired by the shape of a seashell, alongside the distinctive iconic architecture of Expo and Emaar Properties stations. The interior design of the stations reflects seven thematic models: Heritage, Earth, Air, Fire, and Water, in addition to unique design elements developed specifically for Expo and Emaar Properties stations. One Million People His Highness received a further briefing from Al Tayer on the Dubai Metro Blue Line, which links the Green Line at Creek Station, and the Red Line at Centrepoint Station. The line serves residential and academic zones, as well as key development projects, with an estimated population of one million by 2040. It also connects to the Dubai Silicon Oasis - one of the urban centres outlined in the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan - a hub for innovation and knowledge that supports the growth of the technology-driven economy and attracts skilled and creative Tayer stated: 'The Blue Line comprises two main routes. The first runs from Creek Interchange Station on the Green Line, located in Al Jaddaf, passing through Dubai Festival City, Dubai Creek Harbour, and Ras Al Khor, before reaching International City 1, which includes an underground interchange station. The route continues towards International City 2 and 3, extending to Dubai Silicon Oasis and up to Academic City. This section spans 21 km and connects 10 stations.''The second route of the Blue Line starts from Centrepoint Interchange Station on the Red Line in Al Rashidiya. It passes through Mirdif and Al Warqa, concluding at International City 1 Interchange Station. This route measures 9 km in length and links four stations. The project also includes the construction of a metro depot at Al Ruwayah 3,' said Al Highness watched a film highlighting the Dubai Metro Blue Line project, which links the red and green lines of the Dubai Metro and serves economic, academic, tourism, and residential areas expected to house one million people by 2040. It connects these areas with direct journeys to Dubai International Airport in just 20 minutes. It also supports the goals of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan by extending metro services to the fifth urban centre and contributing to a 20% reduction in traffic congestion along the roads served by the Blue Line. Iconic Station His Highness paused at the imposing large-scale model of the iconic Emaar Properties Station, where he was briefed by His Excellency Mattar Al Tayer on the highest metro station in the world, with a height of 74 metres. A new urban landmark, the new station complements Dubai's iconic infrastructure and embodies the emirate's vision to serve as a gateway to the future. It forms a striking visual presence that harmonises with the surrounding urban landscape, elevating the concept of placemaking and positioning the station as a primary destination for Blue Line users. The station also offers integrated commercial and investment an area of 11,000 square metres, the station is designed to handle up to 160,000 passengers, with more than 70,000 expected to use it daily once operational. It will serve the estimated 40,000 residents of Dubai Creek Harbour, in addition to arrival, passengers are greeted by a majestic architectural structure standing 74 metres tall and 38 metres wide, offering an immersive spatial experience from the moment they enter or disembark. The station's exterior features a towering facade that harmonises with the area's architectural identity. A central gateway allows natural light to flood down to the platform level, creating a bright and welcoming space during the day. Sunlight reflects off the stone surfaces, underscoring the station's timeless elegance. By night, it transforms into a radiant beacon that guides travellers, with a carefully planned lighting strategy that enhances its architectural character and reaffirms its role as a gateway to Dubai's bright future. Interior Design The interior design of the station is curated to create a sense of luxury. Towering walls rise elegantly, finished in natural textures and warm, earthy tones that strengthen the connection to the land, reflect the spirit of place, and embody the community's resilience and cohesion. The overall architectural language creates a welcoming and inclusive atmosphere for all material palette features premium, durable finishes such as Jura limestone and bronze metal wall panels at the platform level, complemented by robust granite flooring. At both the lobby and platform levels, glass ceiling panels allow natural light to permeate the space, enhancing the feeling of openness and elevating the overall passenger experience. The combination of natural stone and polished metal creates a balance between elegance and sophistication, giving the station a distinctive character that unites tradition with station's construction materials were meticulously chosen to reflect a blend of heritage and modernity, incorporating stone, glass, and bronze, forming a symbol of Dubai's continuous pursuit of progress. Its dynamic form and architectural scale create a distinctive visual presence. Sustainability, longevity, and resilience to operational and climatic conditions were central to the selection process, supporting the station's ambition to meet the highest standards of environmental efficiency. Naming Rights During the ceremony, it was announced that Emaar had secured the naming rights for the iconic Emaar Properties Station for ten years, starting from its official inauguration in 2029. The next phase will include announcements regarding naming rights for other stations along the Blue the conclusion of the event, His Highness joined the team overseeing the Blue Line project for a commemorative photo. The team included RTA staff members, the contractor consortium, and project consultants. The World's Best City The Blue Line consists of 14 stations, including three interchange stations at Al Jaddaf, Al Rashidiya and International City 1, as well as an iconic station in Dubai Creek Harbour. By 2040, daily ridership on the Blue Line is projected to reach 320,000 passengers. It marks the first Dubai Metro line to cross Dubai Creek on a 1,300-metre-long Blue Line connects and integrates the existing red and green lines, supporting the goals of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 and the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, aimed at transforming Dubai into the world's best city to live in by offering sustainable and soft mass transit solutions. These solutions are designed to facilitate the mobility of both residents and visitors, promoting well-being and enhancing Dubai's global competitiveness as a leading destination for hosting international events. Additionally, they align with the aspirations of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan, which aims to create a '20-minute city.' This innovative concept ensures that more than 80% of essential services are within a 20-minute travel time for residents, fostering a Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) new line offers direct connectivity between Dubai International Airport and nine key areas, including Mirdif, Al Warqa, International City 1 and 2, Dubai Silicon Oasis, Academic City, Ras Al Khor Industrial Area, Dubai Creek Harbour, and Dubai Festival City. Travel time along the route is expected to range between 10 and 25 minutes. Key Elements of the Blue Line The Dubai Metro Blue Line features 14 stations, including three interchange stations: Creek Station at Al Jaddaf on the Green Line, Centrepoint Station at Al Rashidiya on the Red Line, and International City 1 Station on the Blue Line, in addition to the iconic station located in Dubai Creek Harbour. The line includes nine elevated stations and five underground line has all the features of an integrated transport system, including public bus bays, taxi stands, dedicated areas for bike and electric scooter racks, and parking spaces for People of maximum capacity of the Dubai Metro Blue Line exceeds 850,000 passengers per day, based on the scale of the stations included within the project scope. Passenger numbers are expected to reach 200,000 per day by 2030, rising to 320,000 per day by 2040. Fifth Strategic Project Dubai Metro Blue Line represents the fifth strategic public transport project, joining the ranks of the existing red and green lines of the Dubai Metro, Dubai Tram and Dubai Metro Route 2020. It is one of the largest upcoming strategic transport the completion of the Blue Line, Dubai's total railway network will extend from 101 km to 131 km. This includes 120 km for the Dubai Metro and 11 km for Dubai Tram. The number of metro and tram stations will increase from 64 to 78, encompassing 67 stations for the Dubai Metro and 11 stations for the Dubai the fleet will expand from 140 to 168 trains, including 157 for the Dubai Metro and 11 for the Dubai Tram. Setting New Benchmarks The Dubai Metro Blue Line offers a range of distinctive features. In addition to the iconic Emaar Properties Station, it includes the first Dubai Metro bridge crossing Dubai Creek, stretching 1,300 metres. The line is also home to the largest underground interchange station in the network, spanning over 44,000 square metres with a projected capacity of 350,000 passengers per day. Notably, the Blue Line is the first transport project in Dubai to fully comply with green building standards, achieving Platinum Category certification. 50,000 University Students The Dubai Metro Blue Line was meticulously planned with sustainability in mind, ensuring it connects existing and future high population densities, estimated to reach around one million residents by 2040. Key areas served by the Blue Line include Dubai Creek Harbour and Dubai Festival City, noted for their immense development potential, as well as International City, home to Dragon Mart and large residential complexes visited by over 200,000 residents and visitors. It also serves residential neighbourhoods like Al Rashidiya, Al Warqaa, and Mirdif. It also extends to Dubai Silicon Oasis, recognised as one of the Dubai 2040 Urban Master Plan's Urban Centres, and Academic City, which is projected to accommodate over 50,000 university students by construction of the Blue Line project will utilise cutting-edge international technologies in rail systems. Station designs have been planned to maximise space efficiency, thereby reducing construction, operation and maintenance costs. Additionally, these designs aim for seamless integration with various transportation modes, including public buses and taxis. Economic Return Initial studies by RTA indicate that infrastructure investment is a key driver of economic growth in cities worldwide. The Dubai Metro Blue Line project aligns with the objectives of the Dubai Economic Agenda D33, offering economic, social and environmental returns. By 2040, the project is projected to yield a benefit-cost ratio of 2.60 (Dh2.60 in benefits for every Dh1 spent). The total anticipated benefits will exceed Dh56.5 billion by 2040. These benefits include substantial savings in time and fuel, reduced accident-related fatalities, and lower carbon Blue Line is also expected to decrease traffic congestion on its served routes by 20% and appreciate the value of land and properties near stations by up to 25%. The Blue Line also provides a direct connection between Dubai International Airport and nine key areas situated along its route. It connects with the fifth urban centre, Dubai Silicon Oasis Centre, ensuring that all major urban centres in Dubai are seamlessly connected by metro lines. Backbone of Transportation System The endorsement of the Dubai Metro Blue Line signifies a major milestone, building upon the huge success the Dubai Metro has achieved since its inauguration on 9/9/2009. The Metro has emerged as the backbone of Dubai's transportation network, becoming the preferred mode of travel for both residents and visitors. It represents nearly 60% of total usage across all public transportation modes in Dubai, which include buses, the Dubai Tram, and marine the start of operations until the end of 2024, the Dubai Metro has transported 2.527 billion passengers. In 2024, the Metro averaged over 900,000 passengers daily. The Dubai Metro has also recorded great success in upholding the highest international safety standards and operational efficiency, boasting a 99.7% punctuality Dubai Metro played a pivotal role in boosting Dubai's competitiveness for hosting major international events, including the hosting of Expo 2020 Dubai. This event coincided with the launch of the Dubai Metro Route 2020, a 15 km extension featuring seven new stations. It has also contributed to stimulating economic growth, boosting tourism, and appreciating the value of properties located near metro stations. Global Standing Dubai Metro maintains its global position with a current total length of 90 km. This network includes around 52 km for the Red Line, 23 km for the Green Line, and 15 km for Route 2020. The network comprises 53 stations, with 29 on the Red Line, 18 on the Green Line, and seven on Route 2020, including an interchange station. Additionally, the fleet consists of 129 trains. The facilities and services offered at the Dubai Metro stations are recognised as some of the best globally.


Al Etihad
2 hours ago
- Al Etihad
London stocks pull back as investors turn cautious ahead of US-China talks
9 June 2025 16:40 LONDON (REUTERS) London's benchmark index slipped on Monday after rounding off four weeks of gains, as caution prevailed ahead of much-awaited US-China talks later in the FTSE 100 was down 0.3%, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 was up 0.4%.Top officials from the US and China are scheduled to meet in London for talks that investors hope will indicate some progress in de-escalating trade tensions between the world's two biggest talks follow a phone call between the presidents of the two countries last week, in which they agreed to hold more talks amid a global trade war that has escalated from tit-for-tat tariffs to export finance minister Rachel Reeves will hold a meeting with Chinese vice premier, He Lifeng, without providing any details on the sectors were lower, with aerospace and defence stocks leading losses. They were down 0.9%, extending declines to a third session. Pharma stocks dipped 0.8%, as investors looked to book some stocks rounded off the previous week with gains, after a US jobs report allayed concerns of an economic slowdown in the world's biggest economy, despite a US tariff roller stocks, WPP slipped about 2% to bottom the FTSE 100. The ad group said its chief executive officer, Mark Read, would retire by the end of soared 70% to top the FTSE 250 after the scientific instruments maker said it has received a takeover proposal from private equity firm Advent, valuing its shares at 37.35 pounds per jumped 24% after US chipmaker Qualcomm agreed to acquire to semiconductor company for about $2.4 billion. M&G Investments gained 1.7% as UBS upgraded the stock to 'buy' from 'neutral'.


Zawya
2 hours ago
- Zawya
Wall Street heads for cautious start, dollar eases ahead of US-China talks
Wall Street index futures hovered a touch higher while the dollar pared recent gains at the outset of London talks meant to mend a trade rift between the United States and China. S&P 500 E-minis were up around 8 points, or 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis ticked 14 points higher, to almost 0.1%. MSCI's broadest index of world shares climbed 0.2%, and earlier hit a record high of 894.13. Europe's STOXX 600 ticked 0.2% lower, weighed by aerospace and defence-linked sectors. Top trade representatives from Washington and Beijing are due to meet for talks expected to focus on critical minerals, whose production is dominated by China. "Trade policy will remain the big macro uncertainty," said Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at "Signs of further momentum in talks could give the markets fresh boost to kick off the week." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will represent Washington in talks with China, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post. China's foreign ministry said Vice Premier He Lifeng will be in Britain for the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism. Wall Street stocks closed sharply higher on Friday after the closely watched monthly U.S. jobs data eased concerns about damage to the world's biggest economy from Trump's unpredictable tariff regime. Sentiment was weighed down by a standoff in Los Angeles that led to Trump calling in the California National Guard to quell demonstrations over his immigration policies. The dollar fell 0.4% against the yen to 144.315, trimming its 0.9% jump on Friday. The European single currency rose about 0.2% to $1.1415. Sterling rose against the dollar 0.4% to $1.3595. CHINA EXPORT GROWTH SLOWS U.S. job growth slowed in May by less than forecast, data showed on Friday. But dour economic readings from China added to evidence the trade war is taking a toll. China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst level in two years, separate reports showed on Monday. Tariff negotiation hopes dispelled dour economic data and Asian markets closed higher. The Japanese Nikkei closed almost 1% higher, China's blue-chip CSI300 Index climbed roughly 0.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.4%. Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said on Monday. Attention now turns to U.S. inflation data on Wednesday that may adjust expectations for the timing of any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is in a blackout period ahead of its June 18 policy decision. "Beneath the surface, fragilities are building," said Bruno Schneller, managing director at Erlen Capital Management, noting that the U.S. CPI release is expected to show another rise, signaling that inflation remains sticky. "While this may offer some near-term support for the U.S. dollar, broader macro dynamics – notably fiscal expansion, rising structural deficits, and political unpredictability – are increasingly clouding the outlook for both rates and currencies," he said. Gold rose around 0.25% to $3,318 per ounce after a 1.3% fall on Friday. Brent crude recovered earlier losses to climb 20 cents to $66.67 while U.S. WTI crude rose 19 cents to $64.67 a barrel following a 1.9% surge late last week. (Reporting by Nell Mackenzie in London and Rocky Swift in Tokyo; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Bernadette Baum)