US Consumer Confidence Index drops sharply in June 2025: TCB
The Present Situation Index, which gauges consumers' assessment of current business and labour market conditions, dropped 6.4 points to 129.1. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index, which captures short-term outlooks for income, business, and employment, declined by 4.6 points to 69—well below the 80-point threshold that typically signals a recession ahead, as per data by The Conference Board.
US consumer confidence fell in June 2025, with The Conference Board Index dropping 5.4 points to 93. Both present and future outlooks weakened, with the Expectations Index plunging to 69, signalling recession risks. Pessimism grew about job prospects, business conditions, and income expectations. Inflation and tariffs remained top concerns, though inflation fears slightly eased.
'Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May's sharp gains,' said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. 'The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers' assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration. Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May. Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labour market. The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened. Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.'
Consumer sentiment towards current business conditions worsened, with 19 per cent describing them as good, down from 21.4 per cent in May, while those saying conditions were bad rose to 15.3 per cent. Views on the labour market also cooled, with the share of respondents stating jobs were 'plentiful' dropping to 29.2 per cent.
Future expectations further darkened in June. Only 16.7 per cent of consumers anticipated business conditions would improve, while 24 per cent expected them to worsen. Expectations for job availability also dipped, with 15.4 per cent expecting more jobs—down from 18.6 per cent. Income expectations followed a similar trend, with just 16.3 per cent expecting higher incomes in the months ahead.
Despite the gloomier outlook, consumers' assessments of their current and expected family financial situations remained resilient. However, the perceived likelihood of a US recession over the next year stayed elevated.
'Consumers' write-in responses revealed little change since May in the top issues impacting their views of the economy. Tariffs remained on top of consumers' minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,' added Guichard. 'Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month. This is in line with a cooling in consumers' average 12-month inflation expectations to 6 per cent (down from 6.4 per cent in May and 7 per cent in April). References to geopolitics and social unrest increased slightly from previous months but remained much lower on the list of topics affecting consumers' views.'
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