This country is the missing piece in Russias multipolar dream

India Gazette

6 hours ago

Moscow sees an opportunity in thawing India-China ties, but distrust, trade imbalances, and Western pressure complicate a RIC comeback
India is still in the aftermath of Operation Sindoor, in which it watched as China actively supported Pakistan with hardware, intelligence and command and control, and global narrative building. China and India have had military showdowns on their borders every few years.
The US-led NATO bloc is openly supporting Ukraine against Russia. As an adversary of the Americans, China has been tacitly backing Russia, while India, in its desire not to antagonize the US, has chosen a neutral stance on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Russia is not exactly enthused about this.
China, and to a lesser extent Russia, are not happy with India becoming active in the Quad, a visibly anti-China grouping of India, the US, Japan, and Australia.
Much to India's chagrin, Russia continues to engage with Pakistan, which it considers geographically important to safeguard its interests in Central Asia, but also to remind India to not get too close with the US.
With India already the fourth-largest economy and among the fastest growing, both Russia and China have an interest in continuing to engage with it. If Russia can woo India away from the West, then Russia-India-China (RIC) can become an important bloc.
The combined GDP - adjusted for purchasing power parity - of China (19.6%), India (8.23%), and Russia (3.48%) currently amounts to 31.31%. The economic influence of BRICS nations exceeds that of the G7.
In 2025, RIC accounted for 37% of the global population. RIC is among the top 2025 global defense spenders after the US ($895 billion), with China ($266 billion), Russia ($126 billion), and India ($77 billion). In 2025, NATO member states spent $1.5 trillion on defense, which was 55% of global military expenditure. NATO is practically opposing only one country, Russia.
Against this backdrop, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed in May Moscow's strong interest in reviving the Russia-India-China trilateral dialogue, citing improved India-China border ties. Russia accuses the West of trying to promote friction between India and China.
The RIC formation
RIC is an informal trilateral strategic grouping, originally conceptualized by Russia in the late 1990s as a counterbalance to Western dominance. It was the brainchild of former Russian Prime Minister Evgeny Primakov. Over the years, it has facilitated over 20 ministerial-level meetings, fostering cooperation in foreign policy, economics, & security among the three nations.
The grouping comprises the three largest Eurasian countries, which occupy over 19% of the global landmass. All three are nuclear powers & Russia and China are permanent members of the UN Security Council. All three countries are also members of BRICS, the G20, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
RIC opposes unilateralism and supports the idea of a multipolar global governance model. It offers an alternative perspective on global issues, advocating for equity and reforms in global institutions. The grouping supports Eurasian integration through projects such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Eurasian Economic Union.
For India, the RIC format presents both opportunities and challenges. As India prioritizes strategic autonomy, it must balance opportunities in RIC and avoid being locked into any single camp, whether Western or non-Western.
The grouping faced a major setback and became dormant after the 2020 Galwan Valley clashes between India and China. The ongoing border disputes and lack of trust between India and China remain a challenge. India's growing ties with the West and its role in the Quad also complicate engagement with the RIC grouping. Russia's growing closeness with China, especially in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, might also raise concerns in India about the impartiality of the RIC platform.
Moscow has been reaching out to Beijing and New Delhi to ease the situation on the border. A thaw took place when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia in October 2024.
There have been 18 meetings of RIC foreign ministers. The last in-person meeting was held in Osaka on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in 2019. It was just the third such meeting in 12 years. The last ministerial-level RIC meeting was held online in November 2021.
In Osaka, the three leaders spoke on the international situation, both the challenges on the economic side and of peace and stability. They stressed the need to strengthen the international system led by the UN.
They also stressed the need to promote a multipolar world, a world in which there are many centers of influence and stability.
Terrorism as a global scourge was discussed. To promote trilateral cooperation, more specific areas needed to be evolved.
Challenges and advantages for strengthening RIC
India has become a key partner of the US in its Indo-Pacific Strategy, in an effort to address China's rising power. But the recent trade and tariff war may cast a negative shadow on the broader US-India strategic ties. It is no coincidence that the idea to push the RIC format has come amid these difficulties between the US and India.
Speaking at a security conference in Perm on May 29, Lavrov declared that "the time has come" to bring back the RIC mechanism, citing signs of deescalation in India-China border tensions. While trying to push multilateralism, each country has to defend their national interests.
Undoubtedly, Russia has a strong and genuine interest in strengthening RIC. But will strengthening it help New Delhi manage American tariffs? India's balance of payments with both RIC partners is also very unfavorable.
If RIC becomes an anti-US group, it will not be good for China either, as its economy largely depends on trade with the West. Can the scope of RIC be expanded, with foreign policy, economic, trade, and financial agencies of the three countries working more closely together, with greater give-and-take on minerals, rare-earths, microchips, and other technologies?
The growing Sino-Indian rivalry is expected to limit the range of issues in which members will be able to find consensus. Are RIC members ready for substantial military exercises between them without significant distrust? The answer is no.
India wants Russia to join the Indo-Pacific initiative to signal that it's not just a US-centric plan. India's focus on economic links with the Russian Far East and activation of a Chennai-Vladivostok maritime corridor may help persuade Russia that its interests in the Pacific are compatible with India's interest in diluting Chinese dominance in the Indo-Pacific; this also accords with Putin's concept of a Greater Eurasia.
Some analysts believe that by imposing harsh tariffs, the US is pushing New Delhi into Beijing's lap. Would RIC tend towards becoming an anti-American alliance? As India prioritizes strategic autonomy, it would prefer to balance opportunities in RIC and avoid being locked into any single camp.
The RIC countries, with important influence at international and regional levels and emerging market economies, need to further strengthen practical coordination on global and regional issues in the spirit of openness, solidarity, mutual understanding, and trust.
Notwithstanding the bilateral asymmetries, India and China have no choice but to engage bilaterally and multilaterally on a range of issues, even while firmly protecting their own interests.
China, India's leading trade partner, has a significant role indeed in driving the Indian economy and creating high-quality manufacturing jobs, which is of course a sensitive political issue. Chinese analysts have taken note of a recent shift in the Indian policy to attract more Chinese investment.
The Chinese economy is heavily dependent on the American market. Some understanding on trade between the US and China will emerge sooner rather than later. This will also have dynamics for RIC - and with America's global standing dipping a little, there could be a shift in the years ahead.
Russia's call to revive the RIC format reflects its strategic intent to bolster regional cooperation and counterbalance Western influence. It is in Russia's interests to be a facilitator in India-China relations. Lavrov has flagged this issue now, before Russian President Vladimir Putin's scheduled visit to India this year.
Lavrov believes that a strengthened RIC will give India greater leverage to resist Western pressure and maintain strategic autonomy.
Partnering with the two most populous countries gives Russia strength. The success of this trilateral initiative will depend on the political will of all three nations to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and prioritize mutual interests.
Perhaps the time has come for Primakov's idea that the RIC triangle should become the symbol of the multipolar world and its core.
There are contradictions in the RIC format that the US will continue to exploit. But the same is true for many other groupings. For RIC to succeed, India is a key player, and its sensitivities about China have to be assuaged. China has to pull back on its support for Pakistan and stop using Pakistan's aerospace, nuclear, and missile build-up as leverage against India.
Taking part in RIC will be an opportunity for India to showcase its strategic autonomy to a global audience and send a message to Washington, which has repeatedly expressed its displeasure over India's close ties with Russia.
(RT.com)