3 Things To Watch For As Another Active Hurricane Season Looms
IN SPACE - OCTOBER 8: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party ... More organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) In this NASA handout, Hurricane Milton, a Category 5 storm at the time of this photograph, is pictured in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Yucatan Peninsula on October 8, 2024 seen from the International Space Station as it orbited 257 miles above. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)
Earlier this week, forecasters at Colorado State University issued its first forecast for the 2025 hurricane season. They call for another above-average season. This prediction comes at a time when the nation is still recovering from devastating hurricanes in 2024 and adjusting to sweeping federal changes. Here are three things to keep an eye on as the June 1st start date for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches.
ST PETERSBURG - OCTOBER 10: In this aerial view, the roof of Tropicana Field is seen in tatters ... More after Hurricane Milton destroyed it as the storm passed through the area on October 10, 2024, in St. Petersburg, Florida. The storm made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in the Siesta Key area of Florida, causing damage and flooding throughout Central Florida. (Photo by)
Sea Surface Temperatures In The Atlantic Basin
The seasonal hurricane forecasting group at CSU calls for 17 named storms with 9 hurricanes, and 4 of them exceeding the threshold for 'major.' According to the group, a typical year has about 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes with 3 reaching category 3 or greater. Their website pointed out, 'Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are generally warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time.' Other forecasting groups are likely to issue similar numbers in the coming weeks.
Global sea surface temperatures show a waning La Nina and warm Atlantic and Gulf sea surface ... More temperatures.
The Fate Of La Niña
La Niña conditions in the eastern Pacific region are expected to transition back to a neutral state though the exact evolution into the summer and fall is still uncertain. Dr. Phil Klotzbach and his team warned, 'A warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic combined with likely ENSO neutral (or potential La Niña) conditions typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification. The group considers other factors in their assessment including five analog years, which suggest an active season. However, hurricane expert and former hurricane hunter Jeff Masters cautioned that April forecasts should be taken with a "grain of salt." He wrote, 'This does not mean a particular April forecast will be incorrect — just that, on average, a forecast simply using climatology would do as well or better. April forecasts must deal with the so-called spring predictability barrier.' What's that? It is a time period in which the La Niña, neutral, or El Niño transition can be a bit volatile. CSU will issue another forecast in June, and NOAA will debut its prediction in May, according to Masters.
ASHEVILLE, NORTH CAROLINA - SEPTEMBER 28: Heavy rains from hurricane Helene caused record flooding ... More and damage on September 28, 2024 in Asheville, North Carolina. Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida's Big Bend on Thursday night with winds up to 140 mph and storm surges that killed at least 42 people in several states. (Photo by Melissa)
NOAA's Capacity
Beyond atmospheric and oceanic conditions, it will be important to monitor NOAA's capacity and morale. The National Weather Service and its National Hurricane Center are true heroes providing critical weather information and warnings for individuals, businesses, and our national security stakeholders. According to the Associated Press, roughly 55 of 122 NWS field offices reached vacancy rates of 20% in the wake of recent cuts at the agency. AP reported that eight offices are missing at least 35% of their staff members.
'Kermit', a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) WP-3D Orion hurricane hunter ... More aircraft sits on the tarmac of the Coast Guard Air Station at Opa Locka Airport on May 12, 2017 in Miami, Florida. The aircraft is part of NOAA's Hurricane Preparedness Week, May 7-13, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / RHONA WISE (Photo credit should read RHONA WISE/AFP via Getty Images)
Prior to recent cuts, it had been reported that NWS offices were already understaffed. Some offices have cut back on services like launching weather balloons, which provide critical atmospheric data for the weather forecast models. Some offices, including some that recently experienced deadly tornadic storms in their forecast area, delayed damage assessments, according to AP. During an initial round of cuts, several flight crew members in the critical NOAA Hurricane Hunters were fired, but some of them have since been rehired, according to USA Today.
The National Hurricane Center broke records in 2024 for track forecast accuracy. According to an agency website, 'The mean track errors at every forecast interval (12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 96, and 120 h) broke records for accuracy, meaning that NHC's 2024 forecast track performance was its best in history.' The planes, computer models, observations, ocean measurements and radar data are critical to that success. When Hurricane Helene (2024) and Hurricane Milton (2024) approached the U.S., we were not caught off guard and had ample time to prepare. Beyond equipment and data, the morale of meteorologists, pilots, and other staff within NOAA is just as vital to their life-saving mission. And they always show up.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - MAY 31: Michael Brennan, Chief Hurricane Specialist Unit, walks past the hurricane ... More tracking map at the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center as the media is given a tour before the start of the Atlantic hurricane season on May 31, 2019 in Miami, Florida. With the 2019 hurricane season beginning on June 1, 2019 and ending on November 30, 2019 officials are encouraging people to make sure they are prepared for the season with supplies and plans in place in case a storm hits their area. (Photo by)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
6 hours ago
- Yahoo
Forecasters expect an active hurricane season, but history says otherwise
MIAMI - The 2025 hurricane season is off to a busy start in the eastern Pacific, with three tropical cyclones already having developed before a single named system has formed in the Atlantic, which could be an indicator of what lies ahead. Since reliable record-keeping on hurricane seasons began in the late 1960s, there have been less than two dozen years in which three or more named storms developed in the eastern Pacific before the Atlantic recorded its first. This occurrence happens about once every four years and can take place regardless of the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation or what is commonly referred to as the ENSO. In more than 84% of the seasons where three or more named storms formed in the eastern Pacific before the Atlantic, the Atlantic basin failed to end the year with more activity than its eastern Pacific counterpart. The only seasons where the Atlantic was able to overtake the Pacific was during a La Niña or a Modoki El Niño cycle – neither of which are in control of weather patterns in 2025. These years were 1998, 2004 and 2010, with only the latest occurrence flipping the script in any meaningful way. Notably, when the eastern Pacific has produced more than four named storms before the Atlantic has even managed one, the Atlantic basin has never gone on to surpass the Pacific in total activity during the season. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Here's How Active This Year Could Be Without El Nino, La Nina Patterns Despite the historical precedent over nearly the last 60 years, forecasters at Colorado State University are betting against the odds this year. In the organization's latest outlook for the Atlantic basin, forecasters expect 17 named storms to form, with nine becoming hurricanes and four of those strengthening to major hurricane status – which would be a busier than an average season if the prediction turns out to be accurate. If the outlook holds true, 2025 would be in the running for being the only season with the world in a neutral status of the ENSO where the Atlantic overtakes the eastern Pacific in terms of activity. "The team bases its forecasts on a statistical model, as well as four models that simulate recent history and predictions of the state of the atmosphere during the coming hurricane season," CSU stated in its recent release. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross analyzed the latest outlook from CSU and had some words of caution for those wanting to edge the prediction into stone. "…there is more uncertainty than normal in these numbers because nothing is really pushing the season any which way. All these signals are very weak. When signals are weak, then if something is just teeter tottering, it can tip over, you know. So, we wouldn't be surprised to see this forecast be wrong," Norcross stated. Hurricane Season 2025: Here Are The Names For Storms You'll See This Season Pools of warmer and colder water temperatures across the Pacific and Atlantic will play a major role in shaping what unfolds across both basins during the next five months of the tropical cyclone season. Currently, a neutral signal - commonly referred to as "La Nada"- is in place, which can lead to wide variability in how active the season becomes, but it's the localized pockets of above- or below-normal sea surface temperatures that can make a difference. For instance, in the eastern Pacific, the warmest waters are located along the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico, which has supported the formation of Alvin, Barbara and Cosme, with Dalila and Erick waiting in the wings. These cyclones have not maintained strength for long due to a vast pool of cold water stretching from the Baja Peninsula to Hawaii and extending southward toward the equator. It's this combination of warm and cold pools that has led NOAA and other global agencies to declare that a neutral phase, known as a La Nada, is currently underway. If one of these anomalies gains dominance, either a La Niña or El Niño could emerge, but such a shift is not expected to occur until after the peak of the hurricane season has passed. In the Atlantic, several conflicting pockets of sea surface temperatures are at play - many of which are known to suppress cyclone activity. Forecasters are paying close attention to the Atlantic's Main Development Region, which has generally remained at or just below average, the extremely warm waters of the northern Atlantic and a small but impactful phenomenon called the Atlantic Niña, which tends to reduce sea temperatures near the African coast. As of now, none of these features appear to be producing favorable conditions for enhanced tropical cyclone formation, meaning if there is an error in the tropical seasonal forecasts, it likely leans toward overestimating storm activity versus underestimating. One area of notable concern lies in the exceptionally warm waters of the Gulf and the Caribbean. If a cyclone were to enter these regions, conditions would likely exist for rapid intensification and article source: Forecasters expect an active hurricane season, but history says otherwise
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Yahoo
Missed the Strawberry Moon last night? Here's where, when to see it tonight in Illinois
Many people across the country photographed the Strawberry Moon this morning, watching as the moon reached its peak at 2:44 a.m. CT. But don't worry if you missed it – the phenomenon will still be partially visible tonight. Avid skywatchers can also spot the Milky Way, the "bright central bulge of our galaxy," writes NASA, which should be visible through August. Here's what stargazers in Illinois should know. Tuesday, June 10, 2025, into Wednesday early morning hours is when the sweet Strawberry Moon was at its fullest, but it'll still appear mostly full Wednesday night. The moon's phases in June are: 🌓 First Quarter: June 3 🌕 Full Moon: June 11 🌗 Last Quarter: June 18 🌑 New Moon: June 25 June's Strawberry moon will be the lowest full moon in roughly 20 years, so look closer toward the horizon. Experts say the moon's low arc should give it a more yellowish or orange tint. Story continues after photo gallery. The reason the moon will appear lower is because the Earth is in the midst of "a major lunar standstill," writes EarthSky, which has to do with the moon's orbit around the Earth. "It's all about the inclination of the moon's orbit, which undergoes an 18.6-year cycle," writes EarthSky's John Jardine Goss. "The cycle happens because the moon's orbit is being slowly dragged around — mostly due to the pull of the sun — every 18.6 years." The last major lunar standstill occurred in 2006. According to the Old Farmer's Almanac, moonrise for the Peoria area will happen by roughly 9:28 p.m. Wednesday, June 11, crossing the meridian at 12:52 a.m. before setting at 5:12 a.m. Thursday. You can check moonrise and moonset times for your zip code by visiting the Old Farmer's Almanac online. Skies in central Illinois are expected to be partly cloudy Wednesday night, June 11, with a low of around 64 and winds around 7 mph, according to an advanced forecast from the National Weather Service. Similar to the Pink Moon, June's Strawberry Moon takes its name from seasonal plant growth, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac. Many ripening berries were ready to be harvested around this time in the northeastern United States. Other names for June's full moon from Native American tribes include the Birth Moon, Hot Moon, Blooming Moon, and the Green Corn Moon. The Milky Way can best be viewed somewhere far away from bright city lights. Find a dark, safe spot out in the country where you can see more stars in the sky. State parks and campgrounds are your best bet for clear stargazing, in locations such as Campsite 26 at Apple River Canyon State Park and the Area 4 Parking Lot at Iroquois County State Wildlife Area. A full list of the best stargazing spots in Illinois can be found on the Department of Natural Resources website. For those in Chicago, stars will be more visible on the city lakefront, the Palos Preserves in Willow Springs and the 606 Trail at 1801 N. Ridgeway, according to a list compiled by the Adler Planetarium. If you plan on observing the night sky this month, writes NASA, keep the following dates in mind for June 2025: June 16, 17 – Mars & Regulus – Mars passes closer to the bright bluish-white star Regulus, known as the "heart" of the lion constellation, Leo. They will appear about as far apart as the width of the full moon, and should be easy to spot with binoculars or a small telescope. June 19 – Moon & Saturn – The third-quarter moon appears right next to Saturn on Thursday morning in the hours before dawn, according to NASA. They rise in the east together at around 1:30 a.m. June 20 – June Solstice – The summer solstice is on June 20 in the northern hemisphere, tilting its maximum toward the Sun. This means the Sun will travel its longest, highest arc across the sky all year, writes NASA, resulting in the longest period of daylight for those north of the equator. June 21-30 – Mercury becomes visible – For those with a clear view to the western horizon, Mercury becomes visible for a brief period each evening at the end of June. Look for it to appear low in the sky starting 30 to 45 minutes after the Sun sets. June 22 – Moon & Venus – Venus rises this morning next to a slender and elegant crescent moon. Look for them in the east between about 3 a.m. and sunrise. All month – Mars: The Red Planet can be observed for a couple of hours after dark all month. It is noticeably dimmer than it appeared in early May, as Earth speeds away in its orbit, putting greater distance between the two worlds. All month – Milky Way core: The bright central bulge of our home galaxy, the Milky Way, is visible all night through August. It is best observed from dark sky locations far from bright city lights, and appears as a faint, cloud-like band arching across the sky toward the south. The following free astronomy apps can help you locate stars, planets, and constellations. SkyView Lite for iPhone | Google Play Star Walk 2 for iPhone | Google Play Star Chart for iPhone | Google Play for iPhone | Google Play The full Buck Moon should reach peak illumination by Thursday, July 10, 2025. Julia Gomez contributed to this article. This article originally appeared on Journal Star: Strawberry Moon 2025: weather forecast, moonrise time, spots to see Milky Way
Yahoo
14 hours ago
- Yahoo
2025 hurricane season: Colorado State researchers still expect 17 named storms this year
Colorado State University researchers, in an update to their hurricane season outlook, said Wednesday that the forecast remains the same: You can expect an estimated 17 named storms this year, with nine of them becoming hurricanes. Of the nine predicted hurricanes, CSU researchers believe four could hit major hurricane strength, which means achieving sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is primarily what's to blame for the higher-than-normal expected number of hurricanes as a main fuel source for intense storms is warm ocean water. However, CSU researchers also noted 'more uncertainty' with the June forecast due to the climate signals — the sea-surface temperatures — being somewhat weaker this year than last. 'So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,' Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist, said in a statement. 'While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook.' This year's forecast is tamer than 2024's forecast when CSU researchers predicted an 'extremely active' season with 11 hurricanes. Temperatures in the Atlantic were very hot in June of last year at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal. But since January of this year, winds have been blowing across the Atlantic fairly strongly, Klotzbach said, which means the water won't be as hot. Klotzbach compared it to exiting a swimming pool on a windy day: 'You're cold and in a hurry because of all the evaporational cooling,' he said. The consensus about this year's forecast generally appears to be similar, Klotzbach said. CSU looks at other entities' predictions too, and most tend to be at or above average, according to the seasonal hurricane predictions data made in conjunction with Barcelona Supercomputing Center. 'On average most groups are (predicting) somewhere between eight and nine hurricanes,' Klotzbach said. 'There's really nobody going super gangbusters.' And even though hurricane season has already begun, the major hurricanes are not likely to hit until the period between August and October, Klotzbach said. CSU first released its hurricane season forecast in April and will again release updates in July and August. Klotzbach emphasized how the forecasts are informational tools and not meant to teach people exactly how to prepare. 'The forecast could be woefully wrong, maybe it's a super quiet season. but even if we can forecast exactly the number of storms, we can't tell you where they're going to go,' he said.
