Fact check: Did US go from ice cream trade surplus to deficit under Biden?
'America had a trade surplus in ice cream in 2020 under President Trump's leadership, but that surplus turned into a trade deficit of $40.6 million under President Biden's watch,' the Office of the US Trade Representative wrote July 20 on X. The post included a chart that shows the US ice cream trade deficit with Japan, South Africa, the European Union, Brazil, Canada and Turkiye.
The US ice cream trade balance did change dramatically in 2021, the year Biden took office. The trade balance officially flipped negative – which means imports outnumber exports – in 2022 and has remained so since then.
But industry experts caution that US ice cream imports account for a minuscule fraction of all the US ice cream consumed in the US, and exports account for a tiny fraction of all US ice cream produced.
The trade change was driven mostly by a jump in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.
And the cherry on top? Disagreement over which products to classify as 'ice cream' also affects data, experts say. For example, the data referenced by the office of the US Trade Representative also includes 'edible ice', which some experts (and dairy defenders) say doesn't qualify as ice cream.
Removing edible ice shows that 'the US is a net exporter by a significant margin of ($193 million) or +85% larger by value,' International Dairy Foods Association Executive Vice President Matt Herrick told PolitiFact via email.
Ice cream imports increase causes US trade deficit
From 1995 to 2020, the US had an ice cream trade surplus, ranging from about $20m to about $160m, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, an online economic data platform. Longtime customers include Mexico, followed by Saudi Arabia and Canada.
In 2021, that surplus nearly vanished, and in 2022 and 2023, the US notched up an ice cream trade deficit of $92m and $33m, respectively.
At first glance, importing frozen foods doesn't seem practical.
'Shipping refrigerated and frozen products overseas is expensive,' dairy economist Betty Berningat of HighGround Dairy said. 'Mexico is the top destination for US dairy exports.'
But many US and European companies have tapped into global markets.
'Consumers may also want a specific treat that is styled after or known to be from another country,' Herrick said.
Italy, the birthplace of gelato, is now the United States' largest single source of imported ice cream. Italian ice cream imports more than quintupled from about $12m to almost $65m between 2020 and 2021 alone, before decreasing somewhat in 2023, the last year for which data is available.
Some of this stems from increased consumer demand for specialty pints. A report by Mordor Intelligence, a global market research firm, said 'product innovation and premiumisation' have become key in the US ice cream industry.
'This trend is particularly evident in the growth of premium pint offerings and individually wrapped novelties that cater to both indulgence and portion control preferences,' the report said.
The US produces far more ice cream than it imports or exports
To get to the pint: The vast majority of ice cream consumed in the United States is made there, not overseas.
The Trump administration is cherry-picking stats from a fraction of a sliver of the US ice cream industry.
According to US Agriculture Department data, US ice cream makers churned out 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream in 2024. This includes regular ice cream, low-fat and nonfat ice cream, sherbet and frozen yoghurt.
By comparison, the US imported 2.35 million gallons of traditional ice cream in 2024 – that's 0.18 percent of the amount produced domestically, Herrick said.
The US exported 16.4 million gallons of that domestic production, which is also a tiny fraction of 1.31 billion gallons of ice cream – a little more than 1 percent.
Factoring in ice cream mixes, excluding 'edible ice' products
Another caveat about the international trade data: It does not include 'mixes', which skews the totals, said Herrick of the International Dairy Foods Association.
Mixes are used to make ice cream shakes and soft-serve products, and they account for a significant portion of US ice cream exports. 'Inclusion of such data points would change the picture quite significantly,' said Herrick. 'While it is true that traditional ice cream and edible ice exports have seen decreased exports, the same cannot be said for exports of mixes.'
US milk-based drink exports increased 621 percent over the past five years, he said. In 2024, the US exported nearly $35m in mixes to the European Union.
Americans and dairy-based ice cream: A centuries-old love affair melting away?
The White House has churned out plenty of ice cream devotees.
George Washington stocked the capital with ice cream-making equipment. Thomas Jefferson is credited as being the first American to record an ice cream recipe. Ronald Reagan declared July National Ice Cream Month in 1984. Barack Obama even slung scoops back in the day.
Biden, who was often sighted with a cone in hand, proclaimed while visiting Jeni's Splendid Ice Cream headquarters in 2016: 'My name is Joe Biden, and I love ice cream.'
But consumption of regular dairy ice cream – a category that does not include frozen yoghurt, sherbet or nonfat and low-fat ice creams – has been trending down for years.
In 1975, Americans ate an average of 18.2 pounds each of ice cream per year. That figure fell to 11.7 pounds by 2023.
Our ruling
The office of the US Trade Representative purported a summertime scoop: 'America had a trade surplus in ice cream in 2020 under President Trump's leadership, but that surplus turned into a trade deficit of $40.6 million under President Biden's watch.'
It's accurate that the US ice cream trade balance had a surplus for a quarter of a century before turning negative while Biden was president.
But the US Trade Representative's statement makes the US ice cream deficit appear out of cone-trol.
There are three scoops of context on this trade sundae:
The change was driven mostly by a jump in imports. Exports have remained largely unchanged since 2020.
US ice cream imports and exports are a negligible amount compared to domestic production.
There's also disagreement over which products should or shouldn't be included in the data set, which can skew trend interpretations. Excluding edible ice products and factoring in ice cream mixes leaves the US with a surplus.
The statement is accurate but needs a sprinkling of clarification and additional details, so we rate it Mostly True.
Louis Jacobson contributed to this report.
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