Philippine inflation at near 6-year low, paves way for rate cuts
The consumer price index rose 0.9% year on year, the lowest rate since October 2019, and below the 1.1% median forecast in a Reuters poll. The July figure was also less than June's 1.4%.
That brought the average rate in the seven-month period to 1.7%, below the central bank's 2.0% to 4.0% target for the year.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Eli Remolona told Reuters last week the central bank was on track to slash its key interest rate, currently at a two-and-a-half-year low of 5.25%, two more times this year, but the timing will depend on the outlook for growth and inflation.
"On balance, a more accommodative monetary policy stance remains warranted," the central bank said in a statement following the data.
"Emerging risks to inflation from rising geopolitical tensions and external policy uncertainty will require closer monitoring, alongside the continued assessment of the impact of prior monetary policy adjustments," it added.
The July inflation slowdown was partly driven by a faster annual decline in rice prices, which fell 15.9%, compared with June's 14.3% drop. The statistics agency said the downward trend in rice inflation was likely to persist in the next few months.
However, core inflation - which excludes volatile food and energy prices - slightly quickened to 2.3% in July from 2.2% the prior month.
The Philippines, which has lowered its growth forecast for 2025 to 5.5%-6.5% from an earlier forecast of 6%-8%, will announce second quarter GDP data on August 7.
Remolona has expressed optimism the figure would be better than the previous quarter's 5.4% expansion. The central bank will review the direction of interest rates on August 28.
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