Pedro Pascal, Allison Janney, Steve Carell, Kaitlyn Dever, and the great Emmy category mystery

Yahoo

09-05-2025

Studios and campaigners have until May 8 to finalize their 2025 Emmys submissions, and this year in particular, there seems to be more behind-the-scenes strategizing (and last-minute second-guessing) than ever before. After all, deciding whether a performer contends in lead vs. supporting vs. guest can mean the difference between winning a trophy — and being snubbed completely.
Two of the most talked-about Emmy category mysteries that still remain involve Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) and Allison Janney (The Diplomat).
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Warning: this article contains massive spoilers for both of their shows, so read at your own risk!
The show: The Last of Us (Season 2)
The character: Joel Miller, an initial survivor of the zombie apocalypse
The decision: Pascal previously earned a Best Drama Actor Emmy nomination for Season 1, where he was bested by Kieran Culkin (Succession). The shocking death of Pascal's character in Season 2, Episode 2 means he'll have much less screen time this season, so he will have to decide whether to submit in lead again, or drop down to supporting. (He can't go guest because of a new Emmy rule implemented in 2025 that says performers who have previously been nominated or won in a lead or supporting category are subsequently ineligible to submit as a guest.)
Gold Derby's take: Pascal is currently in fourth place for a Best Drama Actor nomination in our odds, and he should stay there. Being seen as a "leading actor" has a cachet for performers, and Pascal may not want to tarnish that image. Two years ago, Brian Cox faced a similar predicament for Succession, and he ended up receiving a nomination in lead, where he had previously competed. We envision Pascal following the same trajectory.
The show: The Diplomat (Season 2)
The character: Grace Penn, vice president of the United States
The decision: Janney only appears in two out of six episodes as the veep who suddenly ascends to the presidency, so it'd make sense for her to go guest. However, she recently earned supporting nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards, plus a bid at the Screen Actors Guild Awards which combines lead, supporting, and guest. In other words, she'll probably receive an Emmy nomination for either category. But what about the all-important win? Janney is already a seven-time Primetime Emmy champion for The West Wing (drama lead twice, drama supporting twice), Masters of Sex (drama guest once), and Mom (comedy supporting twice), and an eighth victory would tie her with Cloris Leachman and Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
Gold Derby's take: Janney initially placed first in our predictions for Best Drama Supporting Actress, but she has since dropped to third place behind The White Lotus standouts Carrie Coon and Parker Posey. The guest categories will be added to our predictions center soon, where a respected actor like Janney would have a better chance to prevail — stay tuned.
Liane Hentscher/HBO
The show: The Last of Us (Season 2)
The character: Abby, a survivor hellbent on revenge
The decision: While Abby is a main character in the video game, she only appears in two of the first six episodes that have been made available to the press. Even if she does appear in the seventh-episode finale, she would meet the "less than 50 percent of a show's season" criteria that makes performers eligible for the guest category. Of course, HBO could still decide to submit her in supporting, particularly since her character has so much screen time and an oversized impact on the show's narrative.
Gold Derby's take: Dever currently sits in fourth place for Best Drama Supporting Actress, behind the aforementioned Coon, Parker, and Janney. Her import in the story may convince her to stay in supporting, but if she were to enter Best Drama Guest Actress, and win, she'd follow in the footsteps of another zombie apocalypse player: Storm Reid from The Last of Us' first season.
The shows: The Four Seasons (Season 1); Mountainhead (TV movie)
The characters: Nick, the husband of Tina Fey's character; Randall, a billionaire in the midst of a financial crisis
The decisions: Carell's impact on these two vastly different projects is still unknown; Netflix's comedy The Four Seasons premieres May 1, and HBO's telefilm Mountainhead drops May 31. Will he go lead for both, supporting for both, or lead for one and supporting for the other? Carell is a 10-time Emmy nominee for The Office and The Morning Show, but he's never taken home a trophy of his own, so strategy is key if he hopes to finally win.
Gold Derby's take: In our latest predictions, Carell is in eighth place for The Four Seasons in Best Comedy Actor and 13th place for Mountainhead in Best Limited/Movie Actor. It's still early, though, since voters haven't seen both projects, and critics have yet to weigh in.
Sonja Flemming/CBS
The show: Matlock (Season 1)
The character: Howard "Senior" Markston, the firm's lead partner
The decision: Bridges is an Emmy favorite who gets nominated virtually every time he shows up. To date, he has 16 bids and three wins (Without Warning: The James Brady Story, The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom, and The Second Civil War). He has a recurring role on Matlock in nine of 19 episodes, making him eligible for guest. But he could go supporting, too, as Senior has plenty of screen time and shares many scenes with Kathy Bates' titular character.
Gold Derby's take: We'll be putting him in our predictions center for Best Drama Guest Actor. And if anyone from Matlock deserves to be nominated as a supporting actor, it's Jason Ritter, who plays Senior's scheming son, Julian Markston.
The show: Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light (Season 2)
The character: King Henry VIII
The decision: In 2015, Lewis received a Best Limited/Movie Supporting Actor bid for playing the king in the first installment of Wolf Hall. A decade later, the show is back and better than ever (it has a rare 100 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes). But will Lewis submit in supporting yet again, or try his luck up in lead? Either way, Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light must swap categories from limited to drama because it includes recurring characters and storylines.
Gold Derby's take: Lewis, who won a lead Emmy for Homeland in 2012, faces an uphill battle in either category. He is hovering around 30th place for Best Drama Supporting Actor, which isn't ideal. He may want to consider switching over to Best Drama Actor, but in that scenario, he would face off against costar Mark Rylance as Thomas Cromwell. It's a tough call.
Paramount+
The show: MobLand (Season 1)
The characters: Conrad Harrigan and Maeve Harrigan, the family's patriarch and matriarch
The decision: The hit Paramount+ drama has one of the most star-studded casts on television, with Tom Hardy leading the ensemble as Harry Da Souza, a fixer for the Harrigan family. Brosnan and Mirren could go lead or supporting, but there are asterisks for each scenario. If Hardy and Brosnan are both submitted in Best Drama Actor, that would cause a potential vote-split scenario. And since Mirren is already going lead for 1923, she'd end up vote-splitting herself by going lead for MobLand, too.
Gold Derby's take: For Best Drama Actress, Mirren is in 10th place for 1923 and 42nd place for MobLand; we recommend she enter supporting for the latter so she could possibly reap two nominations. For Best Drama Actor, Hardy is in 27th place and comfortably ahead of Brosnan's 55th placement; we think Brosnan should strongly consider campaigning in the latter category, to separate himself from Hardy.
Gold Derby is also waiting on final confirmation for the following contenders:
Gerald McRaney (Paradise) — supporting or guest?
Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us) — supporting or guest?
Merritt Wever (Severance) — supporting or guest?
Black Mirror — how many cast members will be submitted, and in which categories?
Saturday Night Live — which hosts and special guest stars will be on the ballot?
The Studio — which of its dozens of guest stars will be gunning for Emmys?
The White Lotus — will everyone submit in supporting like in former seasons?
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