Gridlock: The urgent imperative to increase SA's transmission capacity

Daily Maverick

7 hours ago

South Africa is not short on ambition or potential when it comes to energy reform. The country's renewable energy market is maturing. Investment appetite is increasing and policy shifts, like the recent Electricity Regulation Act, indicate focused commitment to achieving a more competitive, sustainable and competitive energy market. However, one obstacle remains a hindrance to this momentum - transmission.
Despite billions of rand committed to generation, over 20GW of renewable energy remains untapped due to a lack of grid capacity. As the country scrambles to meet rising energy demand and decarbonise its economy, transmission has emerged as the single most critical enabler of energy security and low-carbon growth.
Importantly, the lack of transmission is not just a technical hurdle. It is the vital lever that is needed to unlock real energy transformation. With open access to the grid, more independent power producers (IPPs) will be able to participate and, more importantly, the increased capacity created by a robust transmission ecosystem will mean that South Africa (SA) can unleash the full potential of renewables – cutting emissions while improving reliability.
The good news is that we appear to finally be on the path towards this enhanced transmission capacity. The establishment of the National Transmission Company of South Africa (NTCSA), to be spun off from Eskom, was a significant early milestone on this journey. This unbundling will enable open and transparent access to the grid for public and private generators. It will also pave the way for the trading of electricity through market platforms and wheeling arrangements, creating the foundation for a more dynamic and competitive power sector.
The NTCSA coupled with the proposed Independent Transmission Projects (ITP) programme, creates a compelling case for private sector participation, not just in generation but also in grid infrastructure. However, there is still a long road ahead. The Transmission Development Plan (TDP) 2024 identifies the ambitious objective of integrating around 56GW of new generation and constructing over 14 000km of transmission lines by 2034. That is less than 10 years from now. The initial phase to 2029 targets a more realistic 5 043km of powerlines, but with only 286km expected to be completed in 2025, the gap between ambition and delivery remains immense.
Also, with Eskom's financial constraints and national debt levels limiting national government's capacity to finance these builds, the success of the ITP programme will depend heavily on attracting private sector buy in, partnership and investment. Private investment in these ITP projects will require clear revenue models, predictable tariff structures and credible counterparties. The private sector needs certainty, not just around returns, but also when it comes to things like termination and non-payment recourse.
South Africa could apply lessons from past public-private partnerships, like the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). A stable, predictable, and transparent regulatory environment, consistently applied, is key. Investors will need absolute certainty regarding tariff structures, off-take agreements with the NTCSA, and the long-term security of their substantial investments. The government's commitment to late-stage tendering – ensuring environmental approvals and servitudes are largely in place before bids – is a sensible move to de-risk projects.
Standard Bank is actively engaged in this sector, working to structure bankable transmission models. There are multiple avenues to de-risk transmission investments, and we can leverage global lessons and precedents to achieve this. Countries like Brazil and Peru have successfully deployed BOOT (Build, Own, Operate, Transfer) models to deliver thousands of kilometres of grid infrastructure. We do not see any reason why South Africa cannot do the same.
Transmission infrastructure does not have to be the bottleneck; it is an enabler of energy reform. But to do that, it needs to become a national investment priority.
There are encouraging signs that this may be the case. The Request for Information (RFI) that took place between December 2024 and February 2025 gathered insights from market participants on how to accelerate the development of transmission infrastructure.
Further milestones include the imminent release of the full Request for Proposal (RFP), which will signal a vital shift from talking and planning to execution, and allow government to shape the legal frameworks, procurement mechanisms and support instruments that will guide the first batch of independent transmission projects to market.
This is the crucial next step in shifting SA's energy reality from crisis management to long-term and sustainable resilience. DM