Don't Look Now. The Recession Has Begun. Job Market In Danger.

Forbes

03-05-2025

Stock Market Graph next to a 1 dollar bill (showing former president Washington). Red trend line ... More indicates the stock market recession period
Officially, an economic downturn is not a recession until there are two consecutive quarters of GDP shrinkage. We're halfway there.
The American economy shrank in the first quarter of this year by 0.3%, the first contraction in 33 months. Further, we're one month into the second quarter, and although data is not compiled yet, would anyone like to lay a bet? Economic and job data orthodoxy says you don't make a statement like mine until it's official. Corporate executives don't want to destroy morale; government agencies must retain reserve; and those of us in the job market – coaches, recruiters, staffers, etc. – must not let pessimism creep in.
But we all know what's in front of us; the trouble is, by the time this becomes official, we're already six months in and headed for more. This is typically where everyone's hindsight becomes so but it is my problem'; and, of course, where politics sinks to its lowest level. The failure – or complete lack – of leadership is painful and costly to all.
On the surface, April's Jobs Report seemed good – not great, but certainly better than expected: 177,000 jobs created and an unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%. But a closer look reveals trouble ahead. Nearly half of those jobs occurred in just two sectors: health care (51,000) and transportation warehousing (29,000). When we take into account the fact that Americans spend one out of every six dollars on health care and that there was a panic-like atmosphere in moving goods around before tariffs took hold, these job numbers are not so hot. And overall, job creation has slowed and is expected to continue slowing when we can accuratg ely measure the losses initiated by DOGE but not yet tallied or challenged in court. I expect May's report, due out on June 6 (D-Day – how symbolic) will tell a much starker story. I hope not, but I've seen these signs before.
The New York Times ran a piece by Joe Rennison heading up the Business section on May 1 entitled In the Trump Economy, Only Uncertainty Is Assured. The accompanying graphic by Alvaro Dominguez showed an incredibly jagged graph line which took a precipitous drop and ended up in Donald Trump's incredibly jagged signature. The graph line was red – a picture indeed worth a thousand words.
In that light, as an independent career coach and job market observer, I've been insisting for more than two decades that in times of uncertainty, the only thing we can be certain of is ourselves. That means being prepared for something before it happens rather than reacting to it once it's happening or, worse, once it's over.
Unquestionably, this is one of those times. Markets (jobs, stocks, bonds, futures) abhor uncertainty just as nature abhors a vacuum – and they dramatically showed it over the last few weeks. While we've seen a bit of a bounce back, this is not nearly over, and if I can't say so as an economist (which I'm not), I'm more than confident in my expectation as a job market observer (which I have been for 28 years).
The advice I offer to my clients (7,000 and counting over 28 years) and to my readers (22 years) is that one step taken in advance is longer than 10 steps taken to catch up. In other words, don't wait another minute. Don't think it won't happen to you. Don't underestimate a thing. Don't expect things to work themselves out. The time for your next move is right now, no matter what your current situation is.
General Douglas MacArthur said, 'The history of failure in war can almost always be summed up in two words: 'Too late.' Too late in comprehending the deadly purpose of a potential enemy. Too late in realizing the mortal danger. Too late in preparedness. Too late in uniting all possible forces for resistance.'
It's not too late to see that our recession has begun. If I'm wrong, I'll say so, but right now, that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.