The Atlantic may get its first hurricane of the season - and it has the US in its sights

Independent

a day ago

A tropical storm churning in the Atlantic may become not only the first hurricane of the North American 2025 season, but also the first to bring severe tropical storm conditions to the continental U.S. this year.
Tropical Storm Erin is gaining power in the eastern Atlantic, according to AccuWeather meteorologists. The storm began as a small cluster of rain storms off the western African coast, but has now intensified and could be designated as a hurricane as soon as Wednesday, according to CNN.
While the first hurricane of the season, on average, shows up by August 11, major hurricanes don't typically start forming until at least the first of September. But forecasters believe Erin could be an unseasonably early major storm.
That is thanks, in part, to a lack of barriers to its intensification.
"Several factors are working in its favor, including lack of dust, warm water and a lack of disruptive breezes," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chad Merrill said.
Hurricane season in the U.S. typically lasts from June 1 to November 30.
Forecasters believe the storm will move west over the Atlantic for the next week and will then begin a slight northwest curve from Thursday to Friday. That course adjustment should prevent the main body of the storm from hitting the northeast Caribbean.
AccuWeather warned that residents of Bermuda and the Bahamas should keep informed about the storm's progression and direction.
In some scenarios forecasted, Erin will turns north and away from the U.S. But if the storm becomes powerful, the tropical storm conditions at its periphery could stretch for 100 miles or more, meaning even a northward turn might bring severe storms, high winds, and damaging surf and rain to the coastal U.S.
In that scenario, the east coast of the U.S. from North Carolina to New England would likely bear the brunt of the storm.
"Any development could bring impacts for a large swath from the Caribbean to the United States East Coast," AccuWeather warned in a social media post.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that it would release advisories on Tropical Storm Erin sometime on Monday.
If storm does spin up into a hurricane, it will become the first hurricane in a season that the NOAA predicts will be more active than usual.
The NOAA believes between 13 and 19 named storms will whip up, and of those that approximately six to 10 will become full fledged hurricanes — with wind speeds of 74 miles per hour or greater. The NOAA believes three to five hurricanes will become major Category 3, 4, or 5 storms, which have 111 mph wind speeds or greater.
The federal agency said it had 70 percent confidence in its forecast.
'This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you're ready before a storm threatens," NOAA's National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement.