Hurricane season is near. Could we see tropical storms swirling in May?
May is almost here. Does that mean tropical storms and hurricanes are also on the way?
Although the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season isn't until June 1, tropical storms and hurricanes do sometimes form in May.
In fact, since records began in 1851, 32 named storms have formed in May, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach.
And many of those storms have formed recently: "We did have a flurry of May storms from 2007-2021, with 11 named storms forming during May during that 15-year period," he told USA TODAY.
However, over the past three years, "we haven't had any May storm formations," he said.
Study said season is shifting earlier
A study in 2022 co-authored by Klotzbach found that the Atlantic hurricane season was indeed shifting earlier. "This was likely due to the considerable warming of oceans that we have observed in the western Atlantic during April-May in recent years," he said.
While there haven't been any formations in May since 2021, there were storm formations during the first week of June in both 2022 and 2023. Oddly enough, despite the record heat across most of the Atlantic last year in May/June, we didn't get our first storm formation until Tropical Storm Alberto on June 19, Klotzbach said.
"It is important to note that while we have had a trend toward more early season storms, these storms have generally been weak. We haven't had a hurricane in May since Alma in 1970."
As for where storms usually form in May, WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut told USA TODAY that early season threats, while historically uncommon, have tended to be focused on the eastern Gulf or southeastern U.S. coasts. "All of these events happened on or after May 10, with four of them happening in the 2012-2020 timeframe," he said.
Hurricane Florence can be seen barreling toward the East Coast in this satellite image from 2018, followed by another tropical storm and a hurricane. Hurricane season starts June 1, but storms sometimes form in May.
Should the hurricane season start earlier?
In 2021, the National Weather Service assembled a team to study the dates of the Atlantic hurricane season, along with "an examination of ... moving the beginning of hurricane season to May 15," Maria Torres of the National Hurricane Center told USA TODAY.
"The team determined that the current range of dates of the hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30) already covers 96% of tropical cyclone activity, and moving the start date two weeks earlier would only add an additional 1% of activity," she said.
Based on those statistics, the World Meteorological Organization, which oversees such things, "is not actively pursuing the modification of the start date of the Atlantic hurricane season," Torres said this week.
What does this May look like for storms?
At this point, there aren't any model signals for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic in the next two weeks, Klotzbach said April 22. "Beyond that time, we just don't have the model skill to anticipate May development."
WeatherTiger's Truchelut agreed: "With the historical threat (such as it is) more than two weeks away, there's no day-to-day forecast skill to say anything about pre-season potential tropical activity at this lead time."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season is coming. Could storms start forming in May?
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