With Putin Dominating Alaska Summit, Trump Is Running Out Of Moves Against India
Almost nothing went as US President Donald Trump had expected at the Alaska summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin did not give an inch, except for face-savers in the form of public flattery. With drooping shoulders and a tired face, Trump took it.
With pre-summit bluster and bullying — threatening Russia of 'very severe consequences" and slapping India with 25 per cent extra tariffs — Trump had spent all his options. He had left himself hardly any room to calibrate or escalate.
From his maximalist position, the only escalation would have been to go to war against Russia; a catastrophic choice which even the US, with its struggling economy, injured alliances and diminishing goodwill around the world, cannot afford.
He could not use India as a lever to force his will on Putin. The Russian leader is too seasoned for that, and knows the value of his friendship with India, as well as what India brings as a client, vendor, market, and a geo-strategic ally.
It is not that Trump did not try. The US raised tariffs on Indian goods to 50 per cent after secondary sanctions of 25 per cent on Russian oil purchases. India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China.
He could not, because Putin had made it evident that he would not be blackmailed into deserting an ally or allowing concessions which hurt Russia's interests.
So, Trump swallowed pride and said that he would consider the penalty tariffs on Russian oil in 'two or three weeks", possibly hinting that the August 27 deadline could pass for India without being slapped with the punitive 25 per cent tariff in addition to the 25 per cent reciprocal tariff.
The tariffs may hurt India in the short term, but history has proved (the scenario post Pokhran-II blasts, for instance) that sanctions have only strengthened India in the long run, and helped develop its own capacities. Besides, the effect of the tariffs will be felt more by American consumers than the Indian economy.
Trump also tried to put on a brave face and declared in an interview to Fox News that India had already agreed to drop purchases of Russian oil.
'Well, he (Putin) lost an oil client, so to speak, which is India, which is doing about 40 per cent of the oil," Trump bragged.
The men and women at India's foreign ministry did not reply, perhaps while suppressing laughter.
Because India's oil imports from Russia have risen to 20 million barrels per day (BPD) in August from 16 million BPD in July.
By chipping away at the US-India relations, Trump has only managed to strengthen India's resolve for autonomy and pushed it to explore alternative global alliances like BRICS, SCO, and BIMSTEC. In the bargain, the US has weakened its biggest bulwark against China in Asia and has been busy alienating a fellow liberal democracy.
The India-US ties will survive Trump, but it will need unnecessary time and energy to rebuild.
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