As USAID retreats, China pounces

Politico

10-02-2025

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With help from Connor O'Brien, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman
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If USAID is packing up and moving out, China seems all too happy to move in.
That's the trend that longtime U.S. China watchers and aid workers are already noticing in the weeks since President DONALD TRUMP and his ally ELON MUSK moved to dismantle and shake up the U.S. Agency for International Development.
China is quickly making moves to fill in gaps left behind by the Trump administration's abrupt moves to almost entirely halt and wind down USAID operations worldwide, from the Indo-Pacific to South America.
In Nepal, Chinese officials have reportedly signaled to the Nepalese government that Beijing is willing to step in to replace USAID's void with development funding of its own, the Annapurna Express reports. Officials in the Cook Islands, a strategically important island chain in the Indo-Pacific, said they expect the withdrawal of USAID from the region to provide an opening for China. In Colombia, which received around $385 million in USAID funding in 2024, non-governmental organizations that received USAID funding say the Chinese government is interested in putting up money to help fill the void.
These are early signs, but taken together, it has some analysts on both sides of the political spectrum warning that USAID's dismantlement will undercut U.S. global competition with China in the long-run.
'China is already reaching out to partners,' said FRANCISCO BENCOSME, who served as USAID's China policy lead during the Biden administration. 'They will fill in the void in places like Cambodia and Nepal, and those are just the places we know about..'
On the Republican side, MICHAEL SOBOLIK, a China analyst at the Hudson Institute think tank and a former aide to Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), said USAID helped offer an alternative to China for developing countries looking to outside investors for infrastructure and telecoms development. USAID also aided media outlets in Africa, Southeast Asia and elsewhere where Chinese-controlled media outlets such as Xinhua are ascendant, he noted.
'Sure, USAID was doing some highly questionable stuff that's worthy of review. But don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Beijing is hoping we do exactly that,' Sobolik said.
Democrats on the House Select China Committee, led by Rep. RAJA KRISHNAMOORTHI (D-Ill.), have drawn up a new strategy to hammer the Trump administration on how dismantling USAID will hand a win to Beijing, according to a three-page document of talking points obtained by NatSec Daily.
'When the Chinese Communist Party is aggressively investing abroad, rerouting supply chains, and buying authoritarian favor through elite capture, the United States must double down on USAID's work, not stifle it,' the document said.
But the GOP side of the committee isn't stepping up to defend the agency. Asked for comment by NatSec Daily, the committee replied with a broad statement saying it 'has full trust in Secretary Rubio's ability to effectively handle critical human rights and development issues.'
The Inbox
NO RIGHT OF RETURN? Trump clarified today that Palestinians displaced from the Gaza Strip during a proposed U.S. occupation wouldn't have the right to return to the enclave under his plan to redevelop the war-torn territory.
In a clip released today from his interview with Fox News' Bret Baier, Trump said Palestinians wouldn't have the inherent right to return to the Gaza Strip and reiterated his position that the U.S. would seek to occupy and redevelop the enclave.
Those comments will likely land in the Middle East like a lead balloon. The right of displaced Palestinians to return to their homelands has been a critical demand from Arab states during decades of peace talks to settle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially for countries like Jordan which have sheltered thousands of Palestinian refugees since the 1940s.
You can be sure the issue will come up when Jordanian King ABDULLAH visits the White House on Tuesday.
GRIM NEW START: Russia isn't confident that Washington and Moscow will be able to broker an extension to the New START arms control deal before it expires in 2026.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister SERGEI RYABKOV said today that 'as for our dialogue in the field of (nuclear) strategic stability and the post-New START situation, the situation does not look very promising … On Feb. 5, 2026, the pact expires and after this it will not exist.'
The hang-up is over the number of countries involved in talks. Russia wants France, China and the United Kingdom to negotiate arms reduction, while the U.S. only wants to add China to discussions. Trump has voiced interest in an arms control deal with Moscow.
New START is the last remaining arms control deal between the two nuclear powers, and the expiration of New START could embolden Russia to rebuild its nuclear arsenal.
SYRIA'S NEW LEADER REFLECTS: The new de facto leader of Syria is making the case that the U.S. should lift sanctions on his country, and issuing some kind words about Trump's foreign policy ambitions as he does so.
Appearing on the podcast of former British politicians ALASTAIR CAMPBELL and RORY STEWART, AHMED AL-SHARAA argued that sanctions against the BASHAR ASSAD regime should be lifted as his forces have 'dismantled' that government's oppressive tools.
'Now that we have dismantled the regime and its presence, these sanctions should be lifted, as there is no justification for them after the fall of the regime,' al-Sharaa said.
While he lightly criticized Trump's proposal for Gaza, al-Sharaa did express hope that Trump could usher in lasting peace, saying 'I am optimistic that if the ideas proposed during his campaign become reality, he will play a big role in achieving global peace.'
TRUMP'S FIRING SPREE: Trump fired members of the 'boards of visitors' that oversee U.S. military service academies, our own Jack Detsch reports.
'Our Service Academies have been infiltrated by Woke Leftist Ideologues over the last four years,' Trump wrote on Truth Social today. 'I have ordered the immediate dismissal of the Board of Visitors for the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Coast Guard.' The president did not immediately announce the appointment of new members to the boards.
It's the latest Trump administration move against perceived deficiencies in the U.S. military's fighting capabilities that they attribute to efforts to promote diversity, equity and inclusion within the ranks. The Defense Department already suspended many identity-based student organizations at the service academies (though it allowed clubs for Polish students and other European cultural groups to remain intact) and began removing books from schools it administers that it deemed 'too woke.'
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THE NEW ADMINISTRATION
'BIG BALLS' IN STATE'S SYSTEM: A DOGE staffer and acolyte of tech mogul ELON MUSK known as 'Big Balls' in online circles just landed a post at the State Department, The Washington Post's Faiz Siddiqui and John Hudson report.
The 19-year-old, whose real name is EDWARD CORISTINE, is working as a senior adviser to the State Department's Bureau of Diplomatic Technology, which serves as a critical hub for both sensitive and nonsensitive data the department processes, officials told the Post. Coristine briefly worked for Musk's brain-chip start-up Neuralink. Another DOGE staffer, former SpaceX intern LUKE FARRITOR, is also working at State's Bureau of Diplomatic Technology.
Here at NatSec Daily, we can report Coristine and Farritor have State Department emails, thanks to confirmation from a department official familiar with the email system. The official was granted anonymity due to fear of retaliation.
Keystrokes
FRANCE'S AI ESPOIR: French President EMMANUEL MACRON is pledging hundreds of billions of dollars in investments to bolster his country's artificial intelligence capabilities.
In an interview with a French television station, Macron pledged to invest $112 billion in his country's AI capabilities in order to catch up with other major players such as the United States and China. 'We have to be in the race. We want to be part of it, we want to innovate. Otherwise, we'll be dependent on others,' Macron said Sunday evening.
The new investments pledge presages a major AI summit in France this week (Vice President JD VANCE is leading the U.S. delegation) and follows the rapid and explosive growth of Chinese AI platform DeepSeek.
Related: We asked DeepSeek about geopolitics. It gave us Beijing talking points. By POLITICO.
The Complex
SELLING TRUMP ON DEFENSE BUMP: House Armed Services Chair MIKE ROGERS (R-Ala.) is looking to make his case directly to Trump to boost the Pentagon budget by hundreds of billions of dollars a year.
In an interview outlining his agenda (first reported — for Pros! — by our colleagues at Morning Defense) Rogers said plans to meet with Trump, alongside Senate Armed Services Chair ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.), with the aim of securing his support for hiking military spending to 4 to 5 percent of GDP.
'We are pushing to get back into that spending level, and we want him to take the lead,' Rogers said in an interview. 'I want him to want that 4 to 5 percent.'
Rogers also consulted Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH, who advised him in a phone call last week that Trump's buy-in will be crucial.
'Pete completely agrees that we have to find a way to get in that 4 to 5 percent band of spending,' he said. 'But he made it very clear, that's the president's call.'
ON THE HILL
GABBARD, PATEL IN PROCESS: Trump's most contentious national security nominees are advancing towards their final Senate votes, even in the face of concerted Democratic opposition.
TULSI GABBARD, Trump's pick to be director of national intelligence, will get a cloture vote tonight, setting the stage for a final floor vote on her nomination in the coming days. Meanwhile, FBI director nominee KASH PATEL is still expected to receive a vote in committee this week, after Democrats managed to delay a vote on his nomination.
Both are expected to narrowly get confirmed, as Republicans have lined up behind the contentious nominees. But Vance, who Trump has dispatched as an emissary to Capitol Hill, successfully locked down support for both nominees from Republican holdouts, is out of the country for the next week, meaning that the Senate may not be able to break ties if votes come down to the wire.
Democrats, including maverick Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN of Pennsylvania, are not expected to vote to confirm either Patel or Gabbard.
Broadsides
A WARNING FROM TITUS: A senior congressional Democrat is sounding the alarm that cuts to USAID's support for democracies and human rights around the world could backfire in the pursuit of a stronger U.S. foreign policy.
In an interview with Eric, Rep. DINA TITUS (D-Nev.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the top Democrat on the House Democracy Partnership, warned that cutting this foreign aid funding could weaken U.S. soft power around the world and limit the ability of the U.S. to boost democratic movements around the world.
Cuts to democracy programs in eastern Europe also have spillover effects that can affect others nearby, Titus argued, as countries in Russia's backyard face increased meddling from Moscow in their elections. To that point, she highlighted the importance of U.S. support for institutions in Ukraine. 'If we're not helping in Ukraine, that certainly impacts Romania, and Romania, in turn, impacts Moldova,' Titus said.
She also said Democrats need to frame foreign aid 'not just in terms of girls in Afghanistan, but in terms of this helps us fight against China,' adding that aid to democracy initiatives 'strengthens us in terms of international security.'
ICYMI: How spending $153M to pay its bills put USAID in DOGE's crosshairs by our own Nahal Toosi and Robbie.
Transitions
— Former U.S. Ambassador to Poland MARK BRZEZINSKI and DGA partner ERIK BRATTBERG are launching Brzezinski Global Strategies, a firm that will help clients navigate Poland and other countries in central and northern Europe.
— The Hudson Institute welcomed former British security minister TOM TUGENDHAT as a distinguished fellow.
— SETH LOCKE is joining WilmerHale's defense, national security and government contracts group. He previously co-chaired Perkins Coie's government contracts group
— SHERIDAN BASS is joining House Majority Whip TOM EMMER's (R-Minn.) team as deputy press secretary. She previously was communications assistant for Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee.
— ANNA HOLLAND is now communications director for Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee.
— JAKE DENTON, former technology researcher for the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, has joined the Federal Trade Commission as chief technology officer.
— Former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs DANIEL KRITENBRINK is now a partner at The Asia Group.
— JULIE EDELSTEIN is now a partner at Wiggin and Dana LLP. She most recently was principal deputy chief of the Counterintelligence and Export Control Section in DOJ's national security division.
— PALMERSTON, the former resident cat of the British Foreign Service (and chief rival to 10 Downing Street's Chief Mouser LARRY), has taken up a new diplomatic post in Bermuda after his owner ANDREW MURDOCH was named governor of the British overseas territory.
What to Read
— Dalia Hatuqa, POLITICO: The 'Gaza-ification' of the West Bank
— Bruce Hoffman, The Cipher Brief: How Trump's Gaza plans may be both 'fantastical' and constructive
— Cian Ward, New Lines Magazine: Returning to devastation in south Lebanon
Tomorrow Today
— Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:25 a.m.: China's power: Up for debate
— National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, 10 a.m.: 80 years of U.S.-Saudi relations: Reflecting on the past, shaping the future
— Center for Strategic and International Studies' Project on Nuclear Issues, 10 a.m.: Virtual conference on 'strengthening U.S. alliances and partnerships'
— House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Examining the PRC's strategic port investments in the Western Hemisphere and the implications for homeland security, part I
— George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 4 p.m.: Learning from Ukrainian local communities' response to the full-scale Russian invasion
Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who should be subject to a global arms control regime.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who should lead the talks to rein in Heidi's nuclear aggression.