'Big beautiful bill' mostly benefits the rich, while low earners would suffer from Medicaid and SNAP cuts, Yale report says

CNBC

30-06-2025

A massive legislative package Senate Republicans are trying to pass this week would hurt the lowest-earning Americans financially while boosting the incomes of wealthier households, according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis issued Monday.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" would reduce income by 2.9% (about $700) for the bottom 20% of households, according to the Yale analysis. These households have an income of less than $13,350, it said.
The massive bill would raise income by 2.2% ($5,700) for the top 20%, who have incomes of more than roughly $120,000, the study found.
These financial impacts are what the average household would experience each year from 2026 through 2034, according to the analysis, which modeled publicly known policies in the Senate bill as of Monday morning.
"The bill shifts resources away from those at the lower end of the [income] distribution toward those at the top," said Harris Eppsteiner, associate director of economic analysis at the Yale Budget Lab.
The Yale findings are similar to other recent analyses that have found the GOP's policies would likely be regressive, on a net basis, if enacted.
That's mainly because the bill "sharply cuts" Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly known as food stamps, while a series of tax cuts in the legislation deliver a bigger financial benefit for wealthier households, Eppsteiner said.
Republicans are aiming to try to get the domestic policy package to Trump's desk by their self-imposed deadline of July 4.
If the Senate passes the measure — and its provisions could change before lawmakers vote on the bill — the bill would go back to the House to be approved.
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The Yale analysis includes the bill's major provisions, but doesn't model the full scope of the Senate legislation, Eppsteiner said. For example, it doesn't model changes to the Affordable Care Act (widely referred to as Obamacare) or modifications to federal student loans that would make it more expensive for borrowers, he said.
The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan scorekeeper, conducted a more comprehensive analysis of the original bill passed by the GOP-controlled House in May.
CBO found the bottom 10% of households would lose $1,600 a year (about 3.9% of income) between 2026 and 2034, on average. The top 10% would gain $12,000, or 2.3% of income, on average.
The centerpiece of the GOP bill is an extension of temporary tax cuts passed in 2017, during Trump's first term in office. The legislation is also a vehicle for some of the president's campaign promises, such as cutting taxes for seniors and tipped workers, among other policies.
About 62% of households would get a tax cut from tax measures in the Senate bill, according to a Tax Foundation analysis on Tuesday. The top 20% of households would get the most significant financial benefit, as a percentage of their income, it found.
However, the measure would also cut billions of dollars from Medicaid and SNAP to help pay for the bill's multitrillion-dollar tax cuts.
SNAP and Medicaid are designed to assist those at the lower end of the income distribution, Eppsteiner said. Any financial gains from tax cuts for those households would be "completely outweighed" by cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, he said.
The CBO estimates the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, before interest, in aggregate. With interest, the tally would be about $4 trillion through 2034, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.