Forecasters predict an above-average hurricane season as Atlantic waters heat up.
Outlooks released this week by Colorado State University also predict there also will be 16 named storms and 8 hurricanes in the next three months.
Hurricane season updated forecast: How many storms are expected?
Federal forecasters are predicting 13-18 total named storms for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Of those, five to nine are forecast to become hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
Experts from Colorado State University released their final forecast for the season on Aug. 6. They predict a slightly above-average season of eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
In its July update, CSU's forecast called for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. That's a downgrade from its forecasts in April and June. In its latest update, the institution maintains its July forecast.
NOAA predicted in May that the 2025 season would active, and, according to its latest outlook, little has changed in its forecast.
Sea surface temperatures warming
The tropical Atlantic has warmed faster than normal over the past few weeks, according to federal data and maps.
"When the waters in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea are warmer than normal, it tends to favor an above-average season, since a hurricane's fuel source is warm ocean water," the forecast said. "Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation."
ENSO-neutral conditions
The natural climate pattern is collectively known as ENSO, or the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. ENSO-neutral refers to periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. When water temperatures in the upper layer of the Pacific Ocean is neither unusually warm nor unusually cold, it's considered ENSO-neutral.
The ramp-up to a busy hurricane season
August 6–19 typically marks the beginning of the ramp-up for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. The primary formation area for major hurricanes in early- to mid-August is in the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles.
2025 named storms
As August begins, there are still three months remaining in hurricane season. So far, there have been four tropical storms: Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter.
How can you prepare for hurricane season?
CONTRIBUTING Doyle Rice
SOURCE USA TODAY Network reporting and research; NOAA; Colorado State University; National Weather Service National Hurricane Center
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBS News
an hour ago
- CBS News
Tropical Storm Erin likely to become first Atlantic season's first hurricane
Forecasters say Tropical Storm Erin, which formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday, is expected to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season. The storm formed just west of the Cabo Verde islands, off the western coast of Africa, and was moving west, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Early models showed that the storm was expected to strengthen into a major hurricane by the time it nears the Caribbean islands toward the end of the week. It doesn't pose an immediate threat to the U.S., but there is uncertainty about its longer-term path. As of 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, the center of Erin was about 1,400 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands in the West Indies, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and moving westward at about 20 mph, according to the hurricane center. "On the forecast track," the hurricane center said early Wednesday, "the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend." The center added that "gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today, and Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday." Drone video footage posted to social media showed the aftermath of flooding from the storm in Cabo Verde, a group of islands about 385 miles off the African coast. Local media reported at least eight people were killed, and officials declared a state of emergency as crews dealt with the damage. There's uncertainty about where Erin goes after this week, but most models show the storm pivoting to the northwest and north, CBS News Miami meteorologist Shane Hinton reported. The new activity in the Atlantic comes as parts of South Florida, home to two of the largest school districts in the U.S., are starting a new school year. Classes in Broward County began Monday, and students in neighboring Miami-Dade County are set to go back to school later in the week. Erin is the fifth named storm to develop during the Atlantic hurricane season, which started just over two months ago. Last week, Tropical Storm Dexter formed in the western Atlantic but didn't pose a threat to land. In early July, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall on the Carolina coast, bringing deadly flooding to the region. The Atlantic hurricane season started in June and runs through November, with its peak months being August, September and October. The Pacific Ocean has already seen six hurricanes this year, including Henriette, which weakened to a tropical storm Tuesday and was not expected to hit land. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, predicted an above-normal season for the Atlantic basin this year, with an expected number of named storms between 13 and 18, five to nine of which could become hurricanes. A tropical cyclone becomes a tropical storm when its maximum sustained wind speeds reach at least 39 mph. Hurricanes are more powerful with sustained winds of at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, which is the most severe rating. A storm is considered to be a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Erielle Delzer and Nikki Nolan contributed to this report.
Forbes
2 hours ago
- Forbes
Tropical Storm Erin Will Likely Become First Atlantic Hurricane By Friday
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday, as the storm slowly approaches the warmer waters of the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Erin forms over the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, August 11. NOAA Forecasters are now predicting Erin will become a hurricane by late Thursday night or early Friday morning—a day earlier than previously expected as the storm moves west of progressively warmer waters, the NHC said. Erin will begin moving west-northwest in the next few days, forecasters predicted, at a slightly slower pace. The storm is currently sustaining wind speeds of 45 miles per hour, which are expected to strengthen in the next few days (wind speeds are considered hurricane force after they exceed 74 miles per hour). Erin could potentially strengthen to sustain wind speeds of over 115 miles per hour in the next four days, making it a Category Three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale and the first major hurricane of the Atlantic season. Forecasters currently believe Erin could move close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend, as well as the northern Leeward Islands, which include Anguilla and Saint Martin. These islands will likely see life-threatening rip currents. The region could see tropical storm force winds as early as 8 a.m. on Saturday morning, according to the most recent projections. Erin is then expected to move west-northwest, but forecasters are currently unsure how it could impact the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the East Coast of the U.S. as it advances next week. No watches or warnings have been issued as of Wednesday morning. Key Background Erin formed from a cluster of storms off the west coast of Africa on Monday that slowly advanced westward over Cabo Verde. The storms brought destructive heavy rainfall and flash floods to the nation's Sao Vicente island. At least eight people were killed in the floods, Reuters reported, while another independent report issued by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies issued on Monday said at least nine people were killed, another 20,000 injured, and 1,500 displaced. The National Hurricane Center declared the cluster a tropical storm the same day as it moved west of the islands. 13-18. That's how many named storms the National Hurricane Center is currently predicting the Atlantic will see during the 2025 season. Forecasters are predicting this will include 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes—sustaining wind speeds above 111 miles per hour. So far, the Atlantic has seen five named tropical storms, including Erin.
Wall Street Journal
3 hours ago
- Wall Street Journal
The Lighting Strike That Stretched a Record 515 Miles Across the Great Plains
There is a new king of lightning: A record-setting strike that lasted more than seven seconds and stretched 515 miles, from eastern Texas almost to Kansas City, Mo. The massive size of the megaflash, which touched ground in five states in 2017, was revealed by a new analysis of satellite imagery from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
