Indonesia gets J-10 deal offer from China: Is it a budget buy or Beijing's strategic trap?

First Post

06-06-2025

If Indonesia chooses the J-10, the real question is what it's truly buying into. The real cost of the J-10 may not lie in the transaction, but in the trap that follows. read more
AVIC Chengdu Aircraft makes J-10C fighter jets as well as the JF-17 Thunder planes – which are considered the backbone of the Pakistan Air Force since the US stopped supplying Pakistan with F-16s. Image courtesy Valka
As Indonesia reportedly considers a deal to buy China's J-10 fighter jets, some analysts wonder if this indeed a wise choice for Jakarta. The J-10 is based on copied and borrowed designs and while China promotes it as a low-cost all-purpose fighter aircraft, there are problems behind the scenes.
These include weaker performance, older systems and possible hidden political intentions—making it seem like Indonesia might be stepping into a carefully planned trap. Indonesia is reportedly motivated for this deal based on unconfirmed reports, strongly refuted by India, that Pakistan used one of its J-10 fighter jets to shoot down an Indian Air Force Rafale jet during Operation Sindoor last month.
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According to a report on May 28 in The National Interest, Indonesian Air Force Chief of Staff Marshal Mohamad Tonny Harjono acknowledged that the possibility of purchasing J-10C fighter jets from China is under consideration. However, he emphasised that acquiring such major defence equipment involves a complex decision-making process.
The purchase must go through several stages and be reviewed by the Defence Equipment Determination Council. During this process, the government will evaluate various factors, including how well the equipment fits national defence needs and its potential impact on Indonesia's political relations with other countries.
Origins of the J-10: A legacy of reverse engineering
According to a 2021 article by Charlie Gao in The National Interest, the story of the J-10 shows how China has often used copying and adapting to develop its defence technology. The J-10 was first planned in the 1990s as China's response to advanced American and Russian jets like the F-16 and MiG-29.
But the design wasn't completely original—it was based on Israel's Lavi fighter, a project that was cancelled in 1987 after pressure from US and China is believed to have gotten the Lavi's blueprints from Israel to help speed up their own development. This approach can be seen in the J-10's design.
The air intake below the cockpit looks like that of the F-16, and the jet's wing style is similar to the Mirage 2000. But even though it looks similar to these jets, the J-10 is considered to have a less advanced aerodynamic design. It also relies on parts from other countries, especially the Russian-made AL-31 engine, which was originally built for the larger Su-27 fighter.
J-10's technical shortcomings and incremental upgrades
The National Interest reported that the development of the J-10 has been riddled with constant redesigns and slow upgrades. The initial J-10A variant, which entered Chinese service in 2003, was quickly outdated and suffered from technological limitations in radar and avionics.
It was succeeded by the J-10B and later J-10C, each introducing refinements such as phased array radars and improved engines. Despite these upgrades, the airframe's core limitations persist particularly in terms of its aerodynamic maturity and engine reliability.
The latest model, the J-10C, boasts an AESA radar and PL-15 long-range missiles, positioning it nominally as a 4.5 generation fighter. Yet much of its appeal lies in its affordability rather than capability.
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For instance, the combat radius of approximately 1,000 kilometres and payload capacity of up to 8 tonnes are respectable, but do not outmatch Western equivalents or even some Russian alternatives.
Furthermore, China has not fully transitioned its own fleet to the newer models, with the majority of deployed aircraft still being J-10As, reflecting internal hesitation regarding the aircraft's viability.
Why Indonesia's purchase is concerning
Indonesia's interest in the J-10 appears driven primarily by cost and availability. Deputy Minister of Defence Donny Ermawan Taufanto reportedly emphasised the aircraft's affordability and baseline technical compliance. But such a rationale may be dangerously shortsighted.
Affordability in defence acquisitions often comes at a hidden cost. Integrating Chinese aircraft into Indonesia's diverse fleet—which includes US and Russian-made platforms—poses significant logistical and interoperability challenges. Furthermore, the opaque nature of Chinese military technology and the potential for cyber vulnerabilities in avionics could present long-term security risks.
China's willingness to sell J-10s is part of a broader geopolitical strategy to deepen its military and economic ties in Southeast Asia. The offer comes amid increased defence cooperation between the two nations, including joint drills and high-level military exchanges. Yet, buying into Chinese platforms could also mean buying into Chinese dependency. Once the J-10s are integrated, Indonesia could find itself reliant on Beijing for upgrades, parts and training—limiting its strategic autonomy.
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Propaganda and questionable combat claims
One of the primary claims used to justify the J-10's efficacy is its alleged role in the imaginary downing of an Indian Rafale jet during Operation Sindoor. Chinese state broadcaster CCTV aired a documentary celebrating the J-10C's supposed combat achievements, stating the aircraft had 'achieved combat results for the first time … hitting multiple jets and not suffering any losses', the South China Morning Post claimed. These reports, however, are unsubstantiated and lack independent verification.
India, for its part, has categorically denied the loss of any Rafale fighters in the conflict. In the absence of verifiable proof, these assertions appear to be more about domestic propaganda than battlefield reality—part of a campaign to boost confidence in Chinese military exports and shore up global influence.
India's Rafales vs China's J-10s: A stark capability divide
Comparing the Rafale to the J-10 highlights the technological and operational disparity between the two aircraft. The Rafale, produced by Dassault Aviation, is a true 4.5 generation multi-role fighter with twin engines, superior range and unmatched avionics. It boasts active and passive electronic warfare systems, highly advanced AESA radar and a wide range of precision-guided munitions. India's acquisition of Rafales has significantly enhanced its deterrent capability in the region.
In contrast, the J-10, while equipped with surface-level improvements in its C variant, lacks the operational pedigree and real-world performance history of the Rafale. The aircraft's dependency on the AL-31 engine also makes it vulnerable to foreign supply constraints—a vulnerability that the Rafale's wholly indigenous development avoids.
Strategic trap: Dependency and influence
China's defence export strategy is increasingly aimed at selling its weapons as 'affordable alternatives' to Western systems. However, these exports come with strings attached. For recipient nations like Indonesia, entering the Chinese military ecosystem could mean sacrificing independence in defence planning and opening up to Chinese influence in critical areas of military doctrine and procurement.
Moreover, there is an inherent asymmetry in the seller-buyer relationship when it comes to maintenance, software updates and upgrades. Indonesia may find itself beholden to Chinese suppliers, particularly in the event of geopolitical tension. These vulnerabilities can have long-term strategic consequences, making what appears to be an affordable choice today a costly liability tomorrow.
A question of strategic prudence
Indonesia's inclination to purchase the Chinese J-10 represents more than a defence acquisition. It signals a potential shift in regional alignment. At a time when great power competition is intensifying in the Indo-Pacific, countries must choose their defence partners carefully—not only based on price and immediate availability but also on long-term implications for sovereignty, reliability and capability.
China's J-10 may offer Indonesia a quick fix, but it is a flawed platform born of outdated design philosophies and geopolitical expediency. In contrast, India's unwavering stance on retaining top-tier fighters like the Rafale and its refusal to acknowledge any fabricated combat losses, highlights a clear commitment to quality, credibility and strategic autonomy.
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If Indonesia follows through with this deal, it may risk compromising its defence integrity and becoming another node in China's growing web of influence. The real cost of the J-10 may not lie in the transaction—but in the trap that follows.