Democrat Edges Republican Incumbent in New Iowa Poll
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Democrat Christina Bohannan held a lead over Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks in a new Democratic-sponsored poll of Iowa's First Congressional District, according to Politico.
Why It Matters
Bohannan nearly unseated Miller-Meeks in 2024, losing by only 799 votes despite President Donald Trump carrying the district by more than 8 percentage points. It was among the closest races and went to a recount. Bohannan announced last week she is taking on Miller-Meeks for a third time in hopes of flipping the seat in the 2026 midterms.
The election will likely become one of the most competitive races as Democrats aim to regain control of the House, particularly if Trump's falling approval rating fuels a 2018-style "blue wave."
Democratic congressional candidate Christina Bohannan speaks to supporters during an election night watch party in Iowa City, Iowa, on November 5, 2024.
Democratic congressional candidate Christina Bohannan speaks to supporters during an election night watch party in Iowa City, Iowa, on November 5, 2024.
Nick Rohlman/The Gazette via AP
What To Know
Politico reported a new poll of the district showing Bohannan with an early lead over the incumbent Republican. The internal poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling and commissioned by the House Majority PAC.
Bohannan received 43 percent support to 39 percent for Miller-Meeks, while 18 percent were undecided.
Bohannan told Newsweek that the poll is a "reflection of what we are seeing in the district."
"Hundreds of people reached out to me asking me to run again. That's why we launched our campaign last week," Bohannan said. "People are very fed up with what they are seeing with Representative Miller-Meeks and what's happening in Washington, D.C. She has voted three times to protect the tariffs that are hurting Iowa's farmers and hurting everyday people with increasing the cost of everything from groceries to lumber."
Internal polls are sometimes viewed as less reliable than independent polls, as they are typically selectively released by those who sponsor them. No independent polls have been conducted for the race, but analysts view the district as a toss-up. The poll surveyed 555 voters in the district from June 18-19, Politico reported.
Newsweek also reached out to Miller-Meeks' campaign via email for comment.
Bohannan's campaign wrote in a press statement last week that her campaign raised more than $500,000 in the first day after launching her run, underscoring how competitive the race may be.
The district includes much of the southeast areas of Iowa, ranging from Des Moines suburbs to Davenport and Iowa City, as well as much of the rural areas across the region. It's illustrative of the sort of rural district Democrats once did well in but have struggled in recent elections.
Democrats view Bohannan as a strong recruit, pointing to her strong showing in the district compared to former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. They are hoping that performance, along with a more favorable national environment, could propel her to victory next November.
What People Are Saying
Katarina Flicker, House Majority PAC press secretary, on X, formerly Twitter: "NEW POLLING commissioned by @HouseMajPAC finds Dem candidate Christina Bohannan leading GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) in what is expected to be one of the most competitive congressional races of the 2026 cycle
NRCC Spokeswoman Emily Tuttle, in a statement after Bohannan announced her campaign: "When will Christina learn? Iowans have rejected her twice already, and now she has to run to the left to beat radical Bob Kraus and Bernie-bro Travis Terrell in the primary. There's no doubt whoever comes out of this liberal rat race will be sent packing when Iowans re-elect America First fighter Mariannette Miller-Meeks next fall."
What Happens Next
Bohannan will compete in the primary on June 2, 2026. The general election is set for November 3, 2026. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a pure toss-up.
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