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CNBC
2 minutes ago
- CNBC
Here's what has happened to the stock market in the past after the Fed cut rates at record highs
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September for the first time since December, at a time when the stock market has rallied to consecutive record highs. Here's what tends to happen to stocks in this unique backdrop. The fed funds futures market is indicating an 87% chance for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed's next policy meeting in September, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. The S & P 500 has rebounded more than 30% from its April lows to hit consecutive record highs as investors cheered solid corporate earnings and the prospect for lower rates. "One could argue this is the big dynamic in the game: the Fed is set to cut rates ... into a growth upswing. When taken together with the AI capex surge, that constitutes an objectively friendly backdrop for the market that I don't want to lose sight of amidst local noise," Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs head of hedge fund client coverage, said in a note to clients. Lower rates should be good for stocks for various reasons. They can make safer investments like bonds and savings accounts less appealing due to lower yields. Lower rates also are particularly beneficial for growth stocks, whose value is heavily tied to future profit expectations. But would it boost stocks when the market is already at its peak? Goldman Sachs strategist Jenny Ma looked at S & P 500 performance since 1990 in various time frames after the Fed trimmed rates when the broader market was at or within 1% of a record high. There have been nine such occurrences going back to 1990 when Fed cut rates with the S & P 500 at or close to its peak, Goldman said. Forward returns when the Fed is cutting at the highs are mixed, but it's been generally positive especially after a one-year period, Goldman said. The S & P 500 median return in this environment after a year is 8%, compared with a 9% median return when the market is not at or close to a record, Goldman's analysis showed. "This profile of returns is NOT that much different from when the Fed is cutting and the market is NOT on the highs," Pasquariello said.

10 minutes ago
Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte returns soon, when to get your PSL fix
Starbucks has announced the highly anticipated return date of the fall fan-favorite Pumpkin Spice Latte. When does Starbucks' Pumpkin Spice Latte come out? Although the fall equinox isn't until Sept. 22, the cultural phenomenon and seasonal sensation drink that first hit the Seattle-based coffee chain's menus more than 20 years ago will officially be back at Starbucks before then, on Aug. 26. Consumer interest in the seasonal spice-laden lattes has spiked earlier than ever, according to Google Trends, which showed an uptick in searches starting in mid-June vs. mid-July in 2024. New fall menu items coming to Starbucks this PSL season With the unofficial start of fall at Starbucks coffeehouses come more returning favorites and a new selection of drinks and bites. First up is a new Pecan Oatmilk Cortado, a coffee drink with a 1:1 ratio of espresso to steamed milk, amplifying another nutty fall flavor. In keeping with the high-protein food trends, Starbucks has added another option to its already popular egg bites with a new Italian sausage version. Returning alongside the PSL is the fan-favorite Pumpkin Cream Cold Brew, Iced Pumpkin Cream Chai and Pecan Crunch Oatmilk Latte. Starbucks fall flavors hit grocery stores this summer With more people tapping into the trend of Summerween, Starbucks announced its at-home line of fall products early, with K-Cup pods and Nespresso capsules already available in grocery stores. Joining the lineup this year is a new Starbucks Maple Pecan Latte-inspired nondairy creamer. The Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte-inspired creamer is also back in both dairy and non-dairy options. At-home coffee fans can also snag Starbucks' Fall Blend or Smoked Butterscotch Flavored Coffee, available in K-Cup Pods and roast and ground varieties, and Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Flavored Coffee, which is also available as Nespresso for Vertuo capsules. Starbucks' ready-to-drink beverages -- including the Pumpkin Spice Flavored Coffee, available in RTD Iced Espresso and RTD Frappuccino Chilled Coffee Drink -- are available as well.
Yahoo
30 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Viking's Premium Valuation Backed By Strong Growth, Analyst Notes
Viking Holdings Ltd (NYSE:VIK) shares slipped on Wednesday despite the cruise operator posting a strong second-quarter revenue jump and upbeat analyst commentary. The company reported an 18.5% year-over-year sales increase to $1.88 billion and reaffirmed its ability to sustain mid-single-digit pricing strength across its segments. While Bank of America Securities reiterated a Buy rating with a $70 target, citing Viking's premium positioning and superior returns, investors appeared cautious as shares traded nearly 2% lower in midday noted that Viking's premium positioning should help sustain pricing power, leading to only slight adjustments in 2025-2027 revenue and earnings forecasts. Pricing trends were mixed. River segment pricing improved by 200bps to +6%, likely supported by its dominant market share and mix benefits, while Ocean segment pricing slipped to +4% from +5%, which Didora suggested may reflect rising competition from other cruise operators. Concerns raised last quarter about 2026 pricing stability eased, as Viking maintained its +4% outlook while reinforcing expected mid-single-digit gains. Didora added that Viking is positioned to expand 2025 EBITDA by over 25%, with 2026-2027 estimates growing in the mid-teens, well above the high-single to low-double-digit growth expected for other cruise lines. He also pointed out that Viking's return on invested capital and EBITDA per APCD are nearly twice the industry average. 'We believe VIK's growth and financial metrics justify a premium valuation to peers,' Didora noted. Price Action: VIK shares are trading lower by 1.92% to $58.09 at last check Wednesday. Read Next:Photo by dreakrawi via Shutterstock Up Next: Transform your trading with Benzinga Edge's one-of-a-kind market trade ideas and tools. Click now to access unique insights that can set you ahead in today's competitive market. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? This article Viking's Premium Valuation Backed By Strong Growth, Analyst Notes originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data