Cloud computing
Monsoon's here early, IMD's predicted rain surplus, food stocks are good, but there's much to watch out for
On Saturday, Niti Aayog announced India's become a $4tn economy, edging past Japan to take fourth place. And monsoon arrived in Kerala eight days early, beating IMD's Sunday forecast. This is the earliest monsoon has touched mainland India since 2009, and it bodes well for economic growth. An early monsoon, combined with IMD's projections of above-normal rainfall, would likely lead to a bumper kharif harvest, essential for keeping food prices and inflation in check. FY 2025-26 has anyway started with abundant grain stocks, so much so that GOI wants states to lift three months' rations of wheat and rice to clear warehouses for the incoming wheat crop.
Monsoon matters in all this because India's crop yields remain heavily rain-dependent. In MP, half of the acreage is rain-fed. Maharashtra's agriculture is 80% rain-fed. So, both quantum and distribution of rainfall are important. Last year, for example, monsoon ended with a rain surplus overall, but Punjab, UP, Bihar – major agrarian states – had a rain deficit. On the other hand, Rajasthan and Gujarat had a problem of plenty. While drought and flood can be averaged out on paper, that doesn't happen in the field. And any shortfall in production jeopardises schemes like PMGKAY, under which more than 81cr people are provided free grains. In 2022, Centre had to reduce wheat allocation under the scheme for two years, due to lower output.
Another sobering thought: early monsoons, like child prodigies, don't always live up to their promise. The 2009 season turned out to be India's third driest since 1901. Forecasting has improved since then, but still, a lot can happen between Sept and now. What's certain, though, is that good monsoon or bad, cities, where 35% of Indians live, will bear its brunt.
While below-average rain will leave taps dry, and plunge the water table further, leading to secondary effects like ground subsidence, the dangers of excessive rain are well-known. What Bengaluru went through last week – and last year, when it got 111mm of rain on June 2 – is partly a result of old infra that can't cope with the new pattern of torrential rain. But more than that, it's a sign of the complete abandonment of planning in urban extensions. So, it's time officials stop complaining about 'unseasonal' and 'excessive' rain – which is the new normal – and start building urban infra to cope with it.
Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email
This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
an hour ago
- Business Standard
UP CM directs officials to take action against fake, shell companies
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Saturday directed officials to take action against shell companies to stop the attempts to misuse the facilities meant for genuine traders. While conducting a high-level review of the State Tax Department, the CM directed officials to ensure transparency in tax collection and adopt a policy of technological efficiency and strict enforcement. "Tax evasion is a national crime that negatively impacts development plans and welfare schemes," he said. Stressing that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is a consumer-based tax system, he noted that areas with higher population density are naturally expected to generate more tax revenue. He instructed officials to develop special strategies for zones where tax collection is below average. Adityanath directed that information on suspicious firms registered under Central GST (CGST) be shared with the Centre for cancellation of their registration. For firms under State GST (SGST), he ordered in-depth departmental investigations, and if irregularities are found, their registration should be canceled and FIRs lodged. The CM emphasised the need for on-site inspection of all newly registered firms, stating "fake companies should not be allowed to obstruct the rights of honest taxpayers. CM Adityanath said that such acts are an attempt to misuse the facilities meant for genuine traders, which is unforgivable. Such inspections are essential to ensure that genuine businesses can operate fairly and without interference," he said. During the meeting, officials informed the CM that Rs 18,161.59 crore in GST and VAT had been collected during April and May against the financial year 2025-26 target of Rs 1,75,725 crore.
Time of India
3 hours ago
- Time of India
Thunderstorms & gale likely over coastal AP till June 10: IMD
1 2 Visakhapatnam: The maximum temperatures across the state are rising again due to lack of rainfall over the past few days. The monsoon that has been stalled for the last one-week, is likely to revive from June 11, in Andhra Pradesh, and some parts of the state may witness rainfall activity. Parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) and Rayalaseema regions have reported 2-2.5°C higher than normal temperatures on Saturday. Few parts of the north coastal AP experienced thunderstorms on Saturday evening, bringing some relief to the denizens from the hot and humid weather conditions. Between Friday morning and Saturday morning, Palasa in Srikakulam district recorded six centimetre of rainfall. This was followed by Anakapalle (five centimetre), Mandasa, Therlam, Garividi and Nagari (three centimetre each). Few parts of north AP recorded rainfall between one and two centimetre during the period. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicated on Saturday that thunderstorms accompanied with lightning and gusty winds are likely at isolated places over north coastal AP, Yanam, south coastal AP and Rayalaseema regions till June 10. However, hot, and humid weather most likely to prevail over entire coastal AP during the period. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 5 Books Warren Buffett Wants You to Read In 2025 Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo The weather agency officials said that it is quite usual in southwest monsoon season when the progress of rains gets stalled and it would revive soon. The weathermen informed that isolated parts of the NCAP, SCAP and Rayalaseema will experience heavy rainfall on June 11 and heavy rainfall is likely over isolated places over SCAP and Rayalaseema on June 12 and 13. As per the IMD, Kavali in Nellore district was the hottest in the state on Saturday (June 7) with 41.1°C followed by Gannavaram (41°C), Nellore (40.8°C), Amaravati (40.7°C), Bapatla (40.5°C), Ongole (40.3°C) and Nandigama (39.8°C).
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
4 hours ago
- Business Standard
Rural youth should be trained to become agripreneurs: VP Dhankhar
Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar on Saturday emphasised the need to empower the rural youth to become instruments of change in India's enormous but "underutilised" agricultural economy. Interacting with students, faculty and researchers during his visit to Dr YS Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry in Solan, he also called for giving direct subsidy to farmers and claimed it will increase their annual income by Rs 30,000. Dhankhar said that instead of giving indirect subsidies on fertilisers, seeds and other inputs, farmers should get monetary assistance directly which will give them the choice to purchase fertilizer or opt for natural farming. He said that the income of a farmer's family in the US is higher than that of an average household in that country because farmers receive direct government support. Advocating for a hike in Prime Minister Kisan Samman Nidhi, he said that this amount needs to be factored along with inflationary component, and added that like Samman Nidhi, all other aids should be deposited directly into farmers' accounts which would be immensely beneficial. Exhorting the students to become harbinger of change in their farming families, the vice president said, "Boys and girls like you should motivate their families to foray into marketing of their produce." He underscored the urgent need to bridge the gap between agricultural production and market access. The rural youth from farming backgrounds should be "trained to become entrepreneurs and agripreneurs" and empowered to become "instruments of change" in India's enormous but "underutilized" farm economy, he added. Dhankhar also called for the use of artificial intelligence to bring about revolutionary change in rural systems. Speaking on the roadmap to development, he said farmers are only "annadata" (providers of food) but also "bhagya vidhata" (makers of destiny), asserting that the path to a developed India goes through the farmers' fields. Expressing concern over the export-oriented mindset, Dhankhar said, "I find it very troubling when people say 'this is export material, this is for export'. Why? Shouldn't we eat the best, wear the best?" He proudly pointed out how Indians are now leading major global institutions and lauded the rising participation of women in leadership roles. Dhankhar also planted a sapling in memory of his mother, Kesari Devi, on the university campus and visited the exhibition showcasing the work of various Farmer Producer Organisations and agri-startups. The vice president was given a warm send-off at Annandale helipad where Governor Shiv Pratap Shukla, Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, and Deputy Chief Minister Mukesh Agnihotri, among others, were present.
