Super Bowl Smart Money
(Editor's note: This article is from The Spun by Athlon Sports' 2025 Football Betting Guide — the perfect preseason reference companion for new bettors or sharps alike. Order your copy today online, or pick one up at retail racks and newsstands nationwide.)
So who's going to win it all in 2025? It's a question many have been asking since the final seconds ticked off the clock and the Philadelphia Eagles were crowned Super Bowl LIX champions.
Although last year's preseason smart money moved toward the Eagles, they were still the fourth choice at most books when the 2024 season kicked off, behind heavy favorites Kansas City (+400) and San Francisco (+500), as well as Baltimore (+1000).
This time, Philadelphia is either the sole favorite or co-favorite to go back-to-back for the first time in franchise history. The team's preseason consensus Super Bowl price: +650.
That, however, doesn't mean the defending champs are an overwhelming chalk to repeat. In fact, they're among six teams with single-digit Super Bowl odds (shorter than 10/1).
So back to the question: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LX? Let's tackle it like smart bettors did a year ago — by prioritizing value.
'The best way to find futures value is through regression,' says Establish the Run co-founder Adam Levitan, one of the most respected names in DFS and sports betting. 'Did an outlier percentage of a team's drives [result in] short field goals instead of touchdowns last season? Has a team's offseason moves, especially with coaching and offensive line play, given us a reason to believe a quarterback can make a leap?'
Like many sharp bettors, Levitan prefers making his futures bets in early awards markets. But the same regression premise can be applied to Super Bowl wagering, as well as other futures markets.
For example, the Chicago Bears (+3500) revamped their offensive line and added the offseason's biggest prize in head coach Ben Johnson. Those moves give quarterback Caleb Williams a clear shot at taking a major leap in 2025. In a best-case scenario, Williams becomes part of the MVP conversation, which in turn makes the Bears a potential title contender.
That sentiment is evident in early NFL championship markets. Example: Chicago is among five teams with the highest Super Bowl ticket counts at FanDuel. The Lions, Bills, Eagles and Commanders are the others. So not only are the Bears well-positioned to take a step forward in 2025, but they're extremely popular among Super Bowl futures bettors — factors that are driving up their ticket volume (and driving down their price).
When it comes to early Super Bowl handle at FanDuel, the Eagles, Bills, Lions, Chiefs and Ravens lead the way. No surprises there, as those are widely viewed as the top five teams in the league. However, simply betting on the 'best' teams isn't the only smart consideration when betting preseason futures.
For instance, the schedule greatly influences when one should place a Super Bowl bet on any of those teams. Baltimore and Kansas City face very tough starts, with more manageable second halves. Therefore, if you like the Ravens (+700) or Chiefs (+850) to win it all, consider waiting to place your wager.
The Bills, on the other hand, kick off the 'Sunday Night Football' schedule against the Ravens. After Baltimore, Buffalo doesn't face another contender until Week 9 (Kansas City). So if you're high on the Bills (+750), bet them before Week 1.
At Circa Sports, widely regarded as the sharpest sportsbook in the country, risk manager Dylan Sullivan says the property is heavy to Philadelphia in Super Bowl tickets, but the most money has come in on Buffalo.
Again, early money in futures markets is often sharp money. Translation: The smart money in 2025 is on the Bills.
Here are the most recent Super Bowl odds from bet365 (editor's note: these odds are updated from odds that appear in the magazine):
TEAM
ODDS
Buffalo Bills
+650
Baltimore Ravens
+650
Philadelphia Eagles
+700
Kansas City Chiefs
+800
Detroit Lions
+1100
Los Angeles Rams
+2000
San Francisco 49ers
+2000
Washington Commanders
+2000
Green Bay Packers
+2000
Cincinnati Bengals
+2200
Minnesota Vikings
+2200
Denver Broncos
+2500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+2500
Los Angeles Chargers
+2800
Houston Texans
+2800
Chicago Bears
+4000
Pittsburgh Steelers
+4000
Dallas Cowboys
+5000
Arizona Cardinals
+5000
Seattle Seahawks
+6000
Atlanta Falcons
+7000
New England Patriots
+7500
Jacksonville Jaguars
+7500
Miami Dolphins
+8000
Indianapolis Colts
+10000
Las Vegas Raiders
+12500
Carolina Panthers
+15000
New York Giants
+17500
Tennessee Titans
+20000
New York Jets
+25000
Cleveland Browns
+30000
New Orleans Saints
+40000Super Bowl Smart Money first appeared on The Spun on Aug 18, 2025
This story was originally reported by The Spun on Aug 18, 2025, where it first appeared.
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