Defiant Zelensky throwing wrench in Trump-Putin peace meet

AllAfrica

3 days ago

President Volodymyr Zelensky's maximalist position, supported by the UK, France and Germany, is at odds with public opinion in Ukraine. A new, dramatic Gallup Poll makes clear that Zelensky and his hardline clique don't represent what Ukrainians now want.
Here is what Gallup reports: 'More than three years into the war, Ukrainians' support for continuing to fight until victory has hit a new low. In Gallup's most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.
This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.​'
​Yet, Zelensky continues doing whatever he can to sabotage the Trump-Putin meeting on August 15 in Alaska and to behave as if Ukraine's army still has some hope of winning a war they are clearly losing.
​Zelensky is depending on European 'help' to win the day and stop the US from brokering a deal. But there are already signs that European resolve is breaking down.
​If Zelensky's formula is followed, Europe will need to send troops to Ukraine. A European military contingent is, theoretically, supposed to enforce a ceasefire, the other demand made by Zelensky and his European allies.
The idea behind this is a sort of plan (one hesitates to call it that, but it is what it is) to get a cheap ceasefire deal, send in foreign troops and then restart the war against Russia.
The problem with this surrealistic scenario is that there are no troops, or hardly any. The British-led attempt to assemble an army of the willing appears to have become an army of the unwilling. Only the UK and France have made a potential commitment, somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 soldiers each. No other country has agreed.
Germany, which spends a lot of time acting like the big man in the parking lot, has offered zero troop support. Poland, one of the few European countries with a respectable-sized army, is not interested and does not want a conflict with Russia. Neither does Italy.
As for the troublesome anti-Russian Baltic states, especially Estonia (which specializes in hating Russians), nothing. They need to keep their tiny under-equipped armies home for self-defense. The Estonian Defense Forces consists of 7,700 active personnel 7,700 of which 3,500 are conscripts.
Meanwhile, some European states are cutting down aid to Ukrainians living on their territory, with Finland and Germany leading the way. Some don't want them at all, including Hungary, Poland and Italy.
Nor do any of them have the cash needed to continue the war. They are stealing the profits from the seizure of Russians assets and sending them to Ukraine, violating international law since there is no declared belligerency that justifies the seizures.
This helps them avoid reaching into their own finances, but only for a while. Doing this, of course, has consequences, and there will be a reckoning down the road.
How so? Some in Europe want to renew trade with Russia in the future since American tariffs and Chinese competition are breaking their backs, coupled with excessively high energy prices (their fault entirely), and lots of self-defeating sanctions.
When the time comes, some Europeans really need to trade with Russia: Germany and Italy are near the top of the list.
Now consider this: if Trump and Putin start to work out a relationship, Europe will be on the outside looking in, mainly because they have taken an extreme Zelensky position on Ukraine.
Trump is a trade maven. He will promote any deal with Russia by touting investment and technology sharing. Where does that leave the Germans or Italians or anyone else in Europe?
Even more likely, US interest in the NATO alliance will continue to disintegrate. Why back Europe if it is undermining US strategic interests? If key European allies continue to try and undermine any Ukraine deal, Washington will see it as harming US national security.
Zelensky, for his part, defies democratic norms. Not only does he not follow public opinion, but he sees to it that he keeps martial law in place, refuses to have elections and jails or exiles his opponents.
During the worst of times for the British in World War II, with the loss of most of Europe, the retreat from Dunkirk and the Blitz on London, Britain never declared martial law, nor did they jail opposition politicians (other than some Nazis), attack minorities or close down churches they didn't like.
​Zelensky won't change direction. He will continue to try and undermine US-Russian negotiations. But Europe needs to rethink its support for a Zelensky-led Ukraine. It is digging a deep hole for its future.
Stephen Bryen is a special correspondent to Asia Times and former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. This article, which originally appeared in his Substack newsletter Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.