Razor-thin race will test Milei's popularity in Argentina
Milei has been able to tame runaway inflation with a ruthless austerity plan and he aims to keep his unorthodox economic experiment going by generating more investor confidence and blocking any laws that the current opposition-controlled Congress could pass that would affect the country's finances.
That plan hinges on an electoral victory in the October midterms.
While the October outlook is favorable for Milei, analysts say a local election in the province of Buenos Aires on September 7 could pose a challenge to the radical right-wing leader. His party will be up against the powerful center-left Peronists on their home turf, which they currently govern and which is also home to 40% of the country's voters.
"The only question mark is the province of Buenos Aires," said Lucas Romero, an analyst for consulting firm Synopsis, who said the local election could be an indication of how the October vote might play out. Defeat in October would "hinder his ability to assure the market that his economic changes can last years."
"And the impact of the September election would cast doubt on that election," he added.
While many voters have celebrated the reduction in inflation, which is expected to fall below 30% annually this year compared to triple-digit figures in the recent past, the drastic cuts in public spending have sparked protests from retirees, teachers, and doctors.
A recent poll by the consulting firm D'Alessio IROL/Berensztein showed that Milei's approval rating dropped to 43% from 46%, while disapproval has grown to 55% from 53%.
The consulting firm Trespuntozero highlighted that Milei's popularity—a key factor in the ruling party's election campaign—fell nearly 4 points to 44% in August.
"The province of Buenos Aires is in a dead heat between Peronism and La Libertad Avanza (Milei's party)," Shila Vilker, director of Trespuntozero, told Reuters, adding that voting intent for Libertad Avanza is slightly below that 44%.
"The government's main focus is winning the October elections," a government source who asked not to be identified told Reuters. "The September elections (in Buenos Aires) are difficult to analyze: in some areas we have an advantage, but it's more complicated in others."
An August survey by the consulting firm Analogias had Peronism — grouped under the name Fuerza Patria — polling at 36.9% and La Libertad Avanza was at 32.3%.
"It's going to be a close election. We're going to have a good result in some areas, they're going to have a good result in others," said Jessica Rey, Minister of Communications for the province. "We want to show that the 'chainsaw' (the symbol of Milei's austerity measures) is not the solution."
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