Cardinals 2025 trade deadline preview: Buyers? Sellers? And who's running the show?

New York Times

01-07-2025

With his club exceeding expectations, John Mozeliak has an interesting predicament ahead. The St. Louis Cardinals (47-39) have played their way into National League contention. Now, the Cardinals' longtime president of baseball operations must decide which direction to take at the trade deadline.
Welcome to July, Cardinals fans. Let the rumors fly.
Advertisement
The next 31 days could make or break the Cardinals' season. If they falter, the path for Mozeliak is clear — sell off expiring contracts and continue creating opportunity for young players. But if the Cardinals stay in the race? That's where things get complicated.
With the trade deadline month underway, The Athletic has you covered on what to monitor. Here's an early look at the Cardinals' deadline.
Mozeliak calls the shots here. He remains in charge of major-league decisions in his final year, and that includes the deadline. Adviser Chaim Bloom will be available to, well, advise, but it's unclear how much say he'll have — if any — come July 31.
This could change if Mozeliak swings a trade that impacts 2026 and beyond. Bloom will take over after the season, meaning any contract Mozeliak lands that extends past this year will be Bloom's responsibility. It is highly unlikely Mozeliak would sign off on a trade that has significant ramifications for next season and beyond without heavy input from his successor. But the likelihood of the Cardinals agreeing to a trade of that magnitude in the first place is also unlikely. As competitive as they've been, the focus remains on the future.
Mozeliak has maintained his intentions to compete this year, despite a reset season and a reduction in payroll. Credit where it's due: St. Louis has been one of baseball's most surprising success stories. This ups the ante for Mozeliak. Can he improve his club without deviating from the organization's long-term plan? Will he receive support from ownership, despite a significant decline in gate revenue and a restructured television deal? Will the pressure of pleasing a dissatisfied fan base impact decisions? Is this team capable of sustaining this level of success? These are all things the Cardinals' top exec will weigh over the next month.
Advertisement
Barring a collapse, it's unlikely the Cardinals will be true sellers. However, it's equally doubtful St. Louis commits to an all-in approach. The organization has an opportunity to trade away players, bolster the farm system and open up major-league opportunity for a handful of players, and improve while doing so.
How does that make sense? Take a look at the Detroit Tigers. Last year, the Tigers traded several players on expiring deals, including Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, Carson Kelly and Mark Canha. Detroit netted a handful of prospects and opened the door for several of its young players to play every day. By definition, the Tigers were sellers. But the Tigers took off in the second half, going 30-13 from Aug. 13 on to clinch an improbable wild-card spot. Detroit now has the best record in the American League.
This is an extreme example that shows it's possible to sell and remain competitive. If the Cardinals keep up their pace, Mozeliak could mix and match where he sells and where he adds. One thing that is mostly assured: Regardless of direction, moves are expected to be incremental. Blockbuster deals aren't on the horizon for St. Louis, especially not this year.
Plenty of Cardinals players will draw interest. Many will have significant value. Neither of those things means much if the Cardinals are unwilling to engage.
Ryan Helsley, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Phil Maton and Miles Mikolas are in the final years of their contracts. If St. Louis intends to add via subtraction like Detroit, offloading impending free agents is a sensible place to start. But just because a contract bodes well for logistics doesn't mean the team will follow through.
Mikolas has a full no-trade clause. It's improbable he waives it, even if the Cardinals entertain offers on him. Matz and Maton will generate considerable interest as high-leverage relievers, and the value of bullpen arms tends to peak around the deadline. But both veterans have played key roles in the Cardinals' late-inning success. If the team wants to make a second-half push, established veterans with postseason experience are what it should be targeting, not trading away.
Advertisement
Helsley's case is complicated. The two-time All-Star has seen his ERA jump to 3.41, nearly 1 1/2 runs above his 2.04 mark in 2024, and his fastball command has been erratic. Yet he remains one of the game's top closers — and contending teams will overpay for an elite ninth-inning arm, regardless of expiring contract status.
If the Cardinals consider themselves contenders, would they trade their top reliever? If they keep him, do they risk letting him walk in free agency (something that will ultimately be a Bloom decision)?
St. Louis may receive such a strong offer that it feels compelled to move Helsley. But initial internal conversations have suggested the opposite. The Cardinals may feel inclined to hold on to Helsley and decide on his future at the end of the season, and weigh the risk of losing out on a return if he walks in free agency. This situation is likely to fluctuate throughout the next few weeks.
Fedde is the likeliest to be traded. Much like last season with the Chicago White Sox, Fedde (who is in the final year of a two-year, $7.5 million deal) would garner considerable interest as a low-cost, mid-rotation starter. The purpose of swapping Fedde would be to open up a rotation spot for Michael McGreevy. But if they part ways with a starter, the club risks being left unprotected if a starting pitcher lands on the injured list. The lack of major-league-ready depth in Triple A remains a concern and could give the organization pause regarding a potential Fedde trade.
The Cardinals would benefit from adding one more high-leverage right-handed reliever. Kyle Leahy has done a nice job setting up Maton and Helsley, but acquiring an experienced veteran could help settle things for an inexperienced bullpen.
Things are much murkier from the position player standpoint. St. Louis could target an impact bat, but that would come at the cost of playing time for at least one of its budding hitters. The Cardinals already face a logjam when they activate Jordan Walker (appendicitis) off the injured list as early as Friday. They'll be even more compacted when Iván Herrera (Grade 2 hamstring strain) comes back, potentially by the end of the month.
The Cardinals find it challenging enough to find ample playing time for Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman. Injuries changed that, and both hitters have prospered in their new everyday roles. Adding a bat would come at the expense of one player, if not both. Would acquiring a rental be worth parting with talent and also delaying development for two key players? That's another thing Mozeliak must consider among a long list of decisions before July 31.
(Top photo of Ryan Helsley: Scott Kane / Getty Images)