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Buoyed projections?

Buoyed projections?

Express Tribune03-06-2025
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The government's projection of an exalted growth rate of 4.2% for the next fiscal year has made jaws drop. On what premise it is so confident is hard to guess, but the ground realities suggest a dismal picture. The beleaguered dispensation is pinning its hopes on tight monetary control and effective management of the economy – but that is no small task.
All the projected targets for the ongoing fiscal year were missed as the economy achieved 2.68% growth as against the projected 3.6%. The agrarian sector merely posted 0.56% growth and the country is now on the verge of importing grains. So are the pathetic statistics with industry and other plum portfolios.
The euphoria seems based on the sole achievement that the economy has swelled to $411 billion with a per capita income rise to $1,824. Likewise, the services, transport, storage, construction, information and communication sectors have managed moderate upward trends. All this seems to have encouraged the government to propose new growth targets of 4.4% in commodity-producing sectors; 4.5% in agriculture sector, 3.5% in LSM and 3% in mining.
Inflation is being seen at 7.5%. But there is a surprising squeeze too that the government is eyeing: the construction sector which grew by 6.6% this year is targeted at only 3.8%. So is the case with electricity, gas and water supply sectors that are nourished by 29% this year, but are projected to grow by only 3.5% next year. This is untenable and what crosscurrents they will leave behind is another enigma of sorts.
On the international front, there is a tight-walking for the government as the IMF is too inquisitive, having almost torpedoed the plans on crypto, and insisting on tax collection to be raised to Rs16 trillion. On the other hand, the Planning Commission says it has only left with Rs880 billion and only high-priority developmental projects will see the light of the day.
The rare hope-line is the largesse of the ABD which has doled out $800 million to strengthen fiscal sustainability and improve public financial management programmes.
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Scheduled disasters
Scheduled disasters

Business Recorder

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Scheduled disasters

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So unconstitutional, in fact, that they claimed even those attempting rescue operations—a government helicopter crashed in Mohmand during relief efforts, killing five crew members. A day of mourning was announced for those who died trying to save others from our scheduled catastrophes. In May this year, the IMF approved a $1.4 billion climate loan to help Pakistan build resilience to natural disasters through 'strengthening public investment processes' and 'improving coordination'. Interestingly, just two months after the loan's approval, tourists were being swept away on Babusar Road in July. As of now, there have been five dead, fifteen missing after a cloudburst that everyone saw coming except those responsible for seeing it coming. The search for missing tourists along the Babusar Highway concluded after fourteen days with funeral prayers held in absentia, proving that our rescue operations, like our monsoons, operate on their own precarious schedules. The coordination between the loan's approval and its implementation appears to have encountered familiar delays. As of Aug 16, 2025, no funds under the IMF's climate facility have been disbursed; the May release was from the EFF, not the RSF. For those seeking more tangible evidence of our progress, consider the multi-million-dollar early warning system installed in the Bagrot Valley under the UNDP-funded GLOF-II Project. On August 2nd, when a glacier burst killed a 10-year-old boy and injured his father, the system reiterated the government's inefficiency and played its part by remaining silent, according to local reporting; official confirmation is pending. The Shishper Glacier, apparently unimpressed by our warning systems, produced its most severe outburst since 2018 on August 11th, giving communities a preview of worse to come. 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