logo
China's weapons exports shifting global balance of power

China's weapons exports shifting global balance of power

AllAfricaa day ago
Chinese weapons are starting to show up in the world's biggest conflict zones, underscoring Beijing's technological advancement and investment in this area.
In the 1990s and 2000s, Chinese weapons systems and military equipment were seen as being little more than imitations of old Russian or even Soviet systems. China was largely reliant on exports from Moscow and lacked the capacity to create its own systems.
However, with China's recent economic development and technological growth, state-run Chinese firms are now increasingly significant military players. Reports suggest that China now has significantly more advanced weapons systems.
An example of this is a J-20 fighter flying seemingly undetected through Tsushima Strait in June 2025, in range of US, Japanese and South Korean radar systems.
As conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, are increasingly dominated by drone warfare, China's drone technology has become more sophisticated. It has also made advances in developing hypersonic missiles and stealth technology.
China's recent moves in the Pacific show off its military power, most recently its unannounced naval exercises off the coast of Australia. The exercise caused significant disruption to flights in the Tasman Sea.
And China's fleet sailed close to sensitive military sites in Australia, including the Amberley airbase, which hosts the US's B-2 stealth bomber fleet. This also shows how bold China has become, as well as illustrating how sensitive assets are in striking range of China's forces.
Chinese weapons systems were in action in the Indo-Pakistani conflict in June. Pakistan used several Chinese-made J-10C fighters to shoot down several Indian jets, most notably the French-made Rafale fighter.
The Asian conflict sparked interest in the Chinese jet, with Egypt and Nigeria now showing interest in buying the J-10. A year earlier at the Zhuhai airshow in China, several Middle Eastern nations, including the UAE, made significant purchases of Chinese systems, following up earlier purchases of Chinese drones and fighter jets. China's J-20 jets in action.
Chinese military companies now may have also found another potential client – Iran. Several Iranian military officials were recently photographed in the cockpit of a J-10 at the Zhuhai airshow.
The history of why China has invested significantly in military hardware is significant. Chinese military weaknesses were highlighted during the Gulf War and the third Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. This saw China conduct missile tests in the Taiwan Strait as a signal to Taipei, which was seen as moving towards independence.
Washington deployed two carrier groups in response, consisting of two aircraft carriers and a large number of escorts. These significantly outclassed China's ships, with more firepower and more advanced technology.
At that time, Beijing was dependent on Soviet-made equipment. Its limitations were highlighted by the Chinese navy's inability to detect US submarines in the Taiwan Strait.
The need to upgrade its military led to a continuous 10% increase in the Chinese defence budget, as well as widespread military reforms. These occurred under Jiang Zemin, chairman of the Central Military Commission (the supreme military body for the Chinese Communist Party) from 1989 to 2004, and president of China from 1993 to 2003.
These changes laid the foundations for China's modernised military systems today.
China's military modernisation has also been representative of its wider investment in technology. With some Chinese technology, such as AI chatbot DeepSeek, now challenging Western domination.
Scholars have long argued that economic power leads to greater military power and a greater global role. With the conflicts in Ukraine, South Asia, and the Middle East showing the limitations of more established European and Russian hardware, there are growing opportunities for Chinese weapons technology.
It's also likely that Chinese military systems will find customers among countries that are not on Donald Trump's list of favored nations, such as Iran. Should Iran be able to equip itself with Chinese systems, it will be better placed to go head-to-head with Israel.
All of these military advancements have given Beijing greater confidence while making the strategic position of the US and its allies in Asia more precarious. While the J-20 demonstrated the vulnerability of the First Island Chain, (a string of strategically important islands in east Asia) the latest innovation, the J-36, could reshape aerial warfare in the region.
Integrated with AI and linked with drone swarms, the system has the potential to serve as a flying server, creating an integrated system not unlike the one recently used by Pakistan, but with even more advanced technologies.
All of these military maneuvers show how China is becoming a significant player in global conflicts, and how this may give it more strength to challenge the current world order.
Tom Harper is lecturer in international relations, University of East London
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Trump's tariff rage pushes a miffed Modi toward China
Trump's tariff rage pushes a miffed Modi toward China

AllAfrica

time2 hours ago

  • AllAfrica

Trump's tariff rage pushes a miffed Modi toward China

As geopolitical trolling goes, India's Narendra Modi suddenly heading to China for the first time in seven years is just elite. No one could possibly miss the Donald Trump of it all as Prime Minister Modi shifts into economic-emergency mode. This follows Trump imposing a 50% tariff on India, making it the second member of the BRICS — Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa — to suffer a US penalty of that magnitude. First, it was Brazil, ostensibly for holding former President Jair Bolsonaro accountable for a 2022 coup attempt. South Africa, meanwhile, is being hit by a 30% Trump tax, the highest rate in all of sub-Saharan Africa. Nigeria, Ghana, Lesotho and Zimbabwe all face just a 15% tariff. Now, as India faces its own 50% tariff reckoning, Modi is opting to fly to Beijing instead of Washington. Modi plans to attend the multilateral Shanghai Cooperation Organization that begins on August 31. Trump, of course, is threatening an additional 10% tax on the BRICS. Among other reasons, Trump is irked that BRICS members are angling to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency. He accuses the bloc of 'aligning themselves with anti-American policies.' For Modi's unbalanced economy, say economists at Nomura Holdings, a 50% tariff is essentially a 'trade embargo' against the world's biggest democracy, long a vital counterweight against China's regional ambitions. And, oddly, it's over Russia, a nation for which Trump, until very recently, had a well-known affinity. As Trump comes to realize Vladimir Putin is thumbing his nose at his White House, the US president is turning on Moscow. At least for the moment. For now, Trump World is retaliating against India for helping itself to supertanker after supertanker of cheap, sanctioned Russian oil. India buys an estimated $275 billion of annual oil purchases from Moscow. 'If the extra 25% tariff that President Trump has announced on imports from India remains in place, India's attractiveness as an emerging manufacturing hub will be hugely undermined,' says economist Shilan Shah at Capital Economics. A 50% tax, Shah adds, is 'large enough to have a material impact.' As such, India, the globe's fifth-largest economy, is bracing for a turbulent ride. Trump's economy is New Delhi's largest trading partner. In 2024, India shipped $87.4 billion of goods to the US. Some parts of Modi's economy are more exposed to Trump's tariff rage than others. 'In terms of sectors impacted, we think gems and jewellery, apparel, textiles, and other chemicals are more exposed to the US tariffs and could see some targeted support measures from the government,' says UBS economist Tanvee Gupta Jain. Rajat Agarwal, a strategist at Societe Generale, says 'the impact of tariffs for equities has fed through mainly via a weaker Indian rupee and higher currency volatility, which has weighed on foreign flows in the near term.' Trump turning on India could be remembered as the moment his trade war jumped the shark. While Modi and Xi Jinping compare notes in Beijing, the Chinese leader will have additional incentives to say no to a 'grand bargain' trade deal with Trump. The weeks since Trump struck tariff deals with Japan, the European Union and others have been rich with news cycles about confusion over what was — and wasn't — agreed to. Since the pact with Japan on July 22, both sides have been at odds about the rules of the road concerning the 15% tariff, particularly the treatment of autos. Richard Katz, who publishes the Japan Economy Watch newsletter, notes that is getting an earful from Detroit. Ford, General Motors and Stellantis complain that Trump's agreement with Japan and Europe puts them at a disadvantage. 'They have to pay a 25% tariff on automotive imports from Canada and Mexico, while Japanese and European vehicles and parts can come in at 15%. But the issue is a bit more complex,' Katz explains. On all imports from Mexico and Canada, except for autos, the tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico apply only to goods that do not comply with the North American content rules of origin under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), e.g., 75% for most products, Katz notes. For products that do comply, the tariffs will apply to that portion of content that does not comply, e.g. 20%. However, when it comes to automotive products, the 25% tariff applies to the non-US content, not the non-USMCA content. Over in Brussels, meanwhile, EU officials are doing damage control over the $750 billion of oil and gas Trump demands Europe buy from the US in short order. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen makes it clear the EU can't compel private companies to gorge on US energy for political ends. Back in New Delhi, Modi is reassuring farmers, a key political constituency, that he won't sell them out to Washington. Speaking at an agricultural sector conference in the Indian capital this week, Modi said he 'will never compromise on the interests of farmers, livestock owners and fishermen. I know, personally, I'll have to pay a heavy price — but I am ready for it.' Other industries are raising red flags, too. The nation's Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council termed Trump's tariff escalation a 'deeply concerning development.' The group says 'this move would have far-reaching repercussions across India's economy — disrupting critical supply chains, stalling exports and threatening thousands of livelihoods. We ask the government for immediate relief.' Billionaire Anand Mahindra, chair of India's sprawling Mahindra Group, warns of the economic risks of the 'law of unintended consequences,' calling on Team Modi to 'radically improve ease of doing business.' As Mahindra wrote on social media: 'We cannot fault others for putting their nations first, but we should be moved to make our own nation greater than ever.' Not everyone is panicking over Trump's India tariffs. Economists at Barclays write that it 'will likely inflict more visible economic damage on India but, as we have noted previously, the relatively domestic orientation of the Indian economy should limit the pain.' Yet Morgan Stanley economist Bani Gambhir says that if implemented, Trump's tariff would likely have the Reserve Bank of India stepping up efforts to boost growth. Gambhir expects the RBI to announce two quarter points each – on top of the 25 basis points of easing already factored in. The government, meanwhile, is almost certain to pause fiscal consolidation efforts to support domestic demand. Trump's own goal with India is dawning on BRICS members. Last month, the bloc met in Rio de Janeiro to discuss turning its goal of a currency to rival the dollar into a reality – and to argue for greater representation at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. That seemed nearly impossible with India and China at odds with each other. As Moody's Analytics economist Sarah Tan puts it: 'With two uneasy bedfellows – China and India – in its ranks, it is difficult for BRICS to turn its goal of a currency to rival the US dollar into a reality. Adding pressure from afar, Trump promised an extra 10% US tariff to countries that align with 'the anti-American policies' of BRICS.' Now that Trump is pushing India and China into each other's arms, the dynamic could change rapidly in ways that may surprise Washington and the world. Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Ukraine's drone war boosts its bargaining power with Russia
Ukraine's drone war boosts its bargaining power with Russia

AllAfrica

time5 hours ago

  • AllAfrica

Ukraine's drone war boosts its bargaining power with Russia

Donald Trump appears to be making another attempt to organise a three-way summit with Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to end the Russian invasion. Putin's reluctance to meet his Ukrainian counterpart so far has often made it appear that he doesn't think Ukraine has enough bargaining power to enter direct negotiations. But one thing that may be helping to shift the balance in Zelensky's favor at this stage in the war is Ukraine's enhanced drone capability. Ukrainian drones have made it impossible for the Russian population to isolate itself from the effects of a conflict fought mostly on Ukrainian soil. Attacks on Moscow, in particular, have caused disruptions to air travel within Russia and forced the Russian government to divert dozens of air defense systems to ensure that the capital is protected. Kyiv's use of long-range one-way attack (OWA) drones against Russia has done far more damage to Russia's military and economy than had previously been predicted. Previous drone analysis suggested that the current generation was too easy for defenders to shoot down to have a strategic impact and that prior cases of drone use overstated their strategic benefits. Unlike traditional military drones, OWA drones are designed to detonate on or above a designated target. In my new research, I analyzed Ukraine's use of these OWA drones from mid-2022 to early 2025 to research whether they can indeed have a notable strategic impact on conflict. I found that Ukraine's OWA drone campaign was not only able to overcome Russian air defenses, but that the impact of the campaign has so far had far-reaching effects, ranging from where Russia has placed its air defenses to stoking fuel price rises. Independent estimates suggest that the damage to Russian oil facilities caused by OWA drones, from late 2024 to early 2025, could have cost Russia more than US$700 million. Ukraine's drone campaign has done so much damage to Russian infrastructure and economy that it has given Zelensky a significant bargaining chip with Putin. Ukraine launches drone attack on Moscow. In early 2024, Ukraine launched a large series of strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. By April, NATO officials claimed that the strikes had temporarily halted approximately 15% of Russia's refining capacity, halted exports and caused fuel price spikes in Russia. Once Ukrainian drones started regularly attacking targets deep within Russia, Moscow had to respond. Putin began by moving air defense systems. For instance, in early 2023, the Russian military placed Pantsir air defense systems on Moscow rooftops to intercept OWA drones. Russia was also forced to move air defense systems to public places to reassure the public, once Ukrainian drone attacks began to hit targets near major cities. My assessment is based on data collected from Ukrainian and international journalists as well as independent researchers who documented Ukrainian strikes and the level of damage. On the economic side, Ukrainian drones have struck dozens of oil refineries, depots and storage facilities. Russia's economy is heavily reliant on the fossil fuel industry, so damaging these kinds of facilities quickly increases costs and lowers state revenue. The Russian military is also under pressure from these drone attacks. Ukraine has successfully struck airbases, long-range radars and command centers that Russia needs to continue the war. Notably, Ukraine has struck the drone factory at Yelabuga (where Russia manufactures its own OWA drones) on multiple occasions in an effort to slow its drone campaigns. The success of the drone campaign gives Ukrainian diplomats a strong bargaining chip. Zelensky's calls for a ceasefire in the sky and at sea in early 2025 were partially underpinned by the threat Ukraine was able to pose. Belarussian president Alexander Lukashenko has said that Putin wanted to pressure Ukraine to end drone attacks by appealing to the US, which indicates that the Kremlin is feeling public pressure on this front. And recently, Zelensky offered Donald Trump a 'mega deal' to share Ukraine's drone technology and bring the US up to speed, in exchange for US weapons. So what accounts for the unexpected impact of Ukraine's drone use? The data indicates that while individual drones are often easy to shoot down, large numbers of long-range OWA drones attacking multiple targets are tricky to stop. This is because Russia needs to guess where Ukraine will attack and place defenses accordingly. Russia has lots of air defense systems, but it is also the largest country on earth and cannot defend everything at once. The need to pick and choose what areas of the country to defend and which to leave vulnerable creates an air defense dilemma for Russia that Ukraine has exploited. My findings that an OWA drone campaign can impose serious costs on defenders like Russia are consequential for how other countries should organise their air defenses. As the case of Ukraine shows, the fact that these drones combine long-range and relative precision means that attackers can target lots of different sites across the country and take circuitous paths around air defense to get there. These factors make it difficult for all nations to anticipate where the next attack will come from and take action in time. This is a global problem. The relative ease of manufacturing, procuring and proliferating OWA drones, compared to a missile, means that many states and terror groups could acquire the ability to launch long-range attacks much more easily than a few years ago. Drone costs tend to be in the tens of thousands of dollars, while missiles are often in the hundreds of thousands, at the very least. Countries that might not benefit from procuring OWA drones may still have to find ways to intercept hostile ones. The UK, for instance, found itself shooting down Houthi OWA drones that threatened shipping in the Red Sea. The UK development of 'Dragonfire', a ship-mounted air defense laser for the Royal Navy, was at least partially motivated by this kind of threat. Even as Kyiv puts more effort into developing conventional missiles, OWA drones have proven too effective to ignore. For the Russian leadership, these attacks create a serious dilemma and force them to pick which parts of the country are 'worth' defending. This kind of technology is altering the nature of conflict and other nations will need to take note. Marcel Plichta is PhD candidate in the School of International Relations, University of St Andrews This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Accounting for Trump's tariff losses a tricky business in Japan
Accounting for Trump's tariff losses a tricky business in Japan

AllAfrica

time8 hours ago

  • AllAfrica

Accounting for Trump's tariff losses a tricky business in Japan

On July 7, 2025, US President Trump announced a sweeping 25 % tariff on all Japanese imports, starting August 1, as part of an escalating 'reciprocal' trade campaign targeting allies including South Korea and the EU. While some key exemptions remain negotiable, most sectors, from autos and semiconductors to steel and agriculture, are bracing for a major cost shock. The yen swiftly weakened on the announcement, and Tokyo's finance ministry and Bank of Japan have already flagged rising uncertainty among businesses. Against this backdrop, Japanese chief financial officers (CFOs) face twin challenges: quantifying the direct impact of tariffs on operating costs and revising financial disclosures to satisfy investors and regulators. Under J‑GAAP guidelines, traditionally conservative and earnings‑focused, standardized frameworks for geopolitical risk are limited, while those reporting in IFRS or US GAAP must reassess earnings forecasts, contingent liabilities and disclosure notes. It remains imperative to know how major Japanese companies are reworking earnings guidance, adjusting supply chains and preparing audited statements in the wake of these tariff shocks. Export-heavy Japanese firms have begun sounding the alarm over tariff-driven profit erosion. Toyota, reporting in May under IFRS, forecasted a 21 % drop in full‑year operating profit, from 4.8 trillion yen to 3.8 trillion yen, citing $1.25 billion in tariff costs (180 billion yen in the April-May period) and forex headwinds. The company also confirmed it would raise US vehicle prices by an average of $270 starting this month, a tactical move to partially offset the levies. Sony's latest earnings outlook similarly forecasts a 100 billion yen hit from US tariffs for its fiscal year. Meanwhile, the yen dropped to around 146 yen per dollar following the tariff announcement, reinforcing the squeeze on repatriated profits . Under both J‑GAAP and IFRS, these shifts necessitate revising earnings guidance, stress-testing for 'material subsequent events' and enriching disclosures around contingent liabilities, moves that must be navigated carefully as CFOs scramble to maintain transparency and investor trust. Facing steep levies, many Japanese manufacturers are actively restructuring global operations to shield margins. Honda has already shifted production of its US-bound Civic hybrid from Japan to Indiana, citing tariffs and cost-efficiency as key drivers. The company is also sourcing batteries domestically, from Toyota's US plant, to sidestep duties on imported parts. Nissan, meanwhile, has cut Rogue SUV output at its Kyushu plant by 13,000 vehicles and is reassessing both its North American and Japanese production footprint. Even auto suppliers are feeling the pinch: Tier-2 firm Kyowa Industrial in Gunma has begun diversifying into medical devices after tariffs hit its core business. Beyond automotive, Sony and Suntory have pre-emptively stockpiled goods in US warehouses to create buffer inventories. These strategic pivots, from factories to inventories, underscore a broader recalibration across Japan Inc as firms recalibrate logistics, procurement, and production geography to maintain flexibility and guard against trade disruptions. As operational shifts take hold, CFOs are also wrestling with how to properly account for tariff-related disruptions. BOJ surveys show many firms are 'vague' on the total impact of US tariffs, flagging concerns but struggling to quantify them precisely. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that over 70% of Japanese firms consider the tariff effects 'within expectations' and have kept their investment plans largely unchanged, a sign that many may not yet feel compelled to trigger formal contingent liability disclosures. But with exports declining, the first drop in eight months, and automakers absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them along to US consumers, the financial statement implications are mounting. With tariff-induced operations and accounting adjustments underway, external audit teams, particularly those aligned with Big 4 standards, are sharpening their focus on how companies quantify and disclose these disruptions. EY's April 2025 guidance emphasizes that firms reporting under IFRS must now assess whether tariffs trigger asset impairments, onerous contract provisions or require updated interim disclosures, particularly when changes affect future cash flows or contract terms. Notably, EY flags that tariffs may necessitate impairment tests under IAS 36 and provisions for onerous contracts under IAS 37, especially where long-term contracts lack cost-pass-through clauses. While external auditors ramp up scrutiny, Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) remains unusually quiet on tariff-specific disclosure mandates, leaving listed companies to navigate a compliance gray zone. The FSA's 2024-25 strategic priorities emphasize monitoring geopolitical risk, market volatility and corporate governance gaps, but offer no concrete guidance on tariff-driven financial disclosures. Concurrently, the Tokyo Stock Exchange is preparing to roll out mandatory bilingual financial reporting for its Prime Market in April 2025, which will certainly strain resources at these firms during a time of extreme volatility due to tariffs. This puts pressure on CFOs: they must reconcile complex disclosure requirements, detailing tariff sensitivities, contract risks, and earnings volatility, in both Japanese and English, without standardized frameworks under J‑GAAP. As a result, firms are adopting varied approaches, with some offering robust earnings-risk sections and others opting for minimalist commentary, highlighting a troubling divergence in transparency ahead of critical year-end audits. Uneven disclosures and growing audit scrutiny are beginning to resonate in capital markets. According to the Bank of Japan's Q2 Tankan survey, large manufacturers expect a sharp 8.4 % drop in recurring profits this fiscal year, a marked reversal from earlier optimism and a direct reflection of tariff and global demand pressures. Market reaction has followed: following the US tariff announcement, shares in key exporters, Toyota fell ~2.7 %, Honda ~3 %, and Nissan ~2.2%, as auto stocks slid alongside global trade concerns. Meanwhile, capital markets are showing caution: Asahi postponed 50 billion yen in bond issuance, Suntory deferred 10 billion yen, and Nissin delayed another 40 billion yen, citing the same volatility born from US tariff threats. For CFOs, this translates into heightened demands for clarity across earnings guidance, MD&A disclosures, and bond covenants, as investors apply pressure to anchor confidence in what's become a more unpredictable financial landscape. Taken together, the corporate and accounting responses to US tariffs reflect more than just tactical damage control but rather expose deeper structural tensions in how Japan Inc communicates risk in an increasingly volatile global economy. Japanese CFOs are thus being forced to make rapid decisions on everything from pricing strategies to contingent liability recognition, often without clear regulatory guidance or standardized frameworks to rely on. Auditors are tightening the screws, investors are demanding clearer signals, and yet Japan's disclosure ecosystem remains fragmented, especially under J‑GAAP. The result is a tiered landscape: some firms are embracing transparency, updating earnings guidance and expanding MD&A sections, while others are leaning into ambiguity, delaying adjustments in the hope that policy reversals will make reclassification unnecessary. With global supply chains already strained and capital markets showing signs of tariff fatigue, this divergence in financial communication risks undermining both investor trust and long-term competitiveness. If Japanese regulators and standard-setters continue to hesitate on formal disclosure guidance, they risk leaving their most globally exposed companies without a roadmap, just as the world is watching more closely than ever. Sayaka Ohshima holds an MBA and a B.S. in Accounting, and works as a U.S.-based accountant specializing in financial reporting and compliance. Her research explores the intersection of economic policy, trade strategy and global capital flows.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store