PM to make 'substantial u-turn' on PIP payments
I understand Starmer's offer to the welfare rebel MPs is to protect PIP payments for all existing claimants forever.
There would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants.
This would shave circa £2bn from the reform savings by 2029.
I am pretty clear that with the other reforms I describe, below this ,will persuade enough rebels to back the remaining reforms in next Tuesday's vote.
There will also be 'grandfathering' of the disability top up universal credit for existing claimants. So again no detriment to existing claimants.
My estimate is this would shave another billion pounds or so from the reform savings by 2029.
Finally, and importantly, the rebels – led by Treasury committee chair Meg Hillier – have secured agreement that the Stephen Timms review of how to assess entitlement to disability benefits will be a co-production with disability rights groups.
This is seen by rebel MPs as a major concession.
My assumption is that enough rebel MPs will now drop their opposition to the reforms and Starmer will win on Tuesday.
But make no mistake, this is another substantial government u-turn.
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