Fantasy Football Fades 2025: DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker III headline staff picks to avoid

NBC Sports

2 days ago

Last week, the NBC Sports/Rotoworld staff unveiled some of their favorite sleeper picks for 2025 fantasy football drafts, so now it's time to focus on the other end of the spectrum with our draft day 'fades' for this season.
What's a 'fade,' exactly? Well, it can have multiple meanings to fantasy managers and analysts. Maybe it's a flag plant on a player you expect to fit the more traditional 'bust' label. In a more nuanced way, it could simply be a player who is unlikely to perform up to the level of their current ADP (average draft position).
With the caveat that these players are ALL draftable depending on how far they fall, here's a look at our staff 'fades' for 2025.
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Rotoworld Staff,
DK Metcalf WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
DK Metcalf is the new highly-paid WR1 for the Steelers, entering an offense coordinated by Arthur Smith. Last season, the Steelers tallied the fourth-most rush attempts and fourth-least pass attempts in the league. Aaron Rodgers at quarterback will help, but Smith's offenses utilize tight ends and emphasize the run at a higher rate than most. Metcalf was in a Seahawks offense that was top ten in pass attempts last season and he finished outside the top-24 wide receivers in PPR fantasy points per game. He has just one top-12 points per game finish in his career, finding his most consistent success as a deep target. Metcalf's upside seems to never hit its ceiling every season, and now that ceiling is capped in the Steelers offense, which doesn't project elite at producing volume or scoring. There are other bets at ADP with higher ceilings. - Aditya Fuldeore
James Cook RB, Buffalo Bills
On the surface, James Cook is coming off a great fantasy season. He finished as the RB11 in PPG and scored 18 total touchdowns. Only Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs had more weeks finishing as a top 12 RB. Look a little closer however, and you'll quickly see that Cook's production was not at all supported by his usage. He ranked 26th at the position in touches per game (14.9) and 38th in snap rate (48%). He had only 3 games with more than three targets and played on just 13% of 3rd downs. A whopping 40% of his fantasy points last season came from touchdowns! And while he did have the fourth-most goal-line rushes in the NFL last season, he had under 55% of his own team's goal-line rushes. Remember, this is a player who had four total rushing touchdowns across his first two NFL seasons. We're not talking about Derrick Henry here. All of this is to say that while Cook can certainly have another productive season, there's no way I'm drafting a RB with those peripherals in the top 15 at the position. And as a result, I don't expect to end up with him on very many of my teams this season. - Matthew Berry
Matthew Berry,
Kenneth Walker III RB, Seattle Seahawks
In one respect, there's never been a better time to be in on Kenneth Walker III. Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald tried the pass-first approach last season and was so appalled with the results he tore the offense up from the roots. This is going to be a ground-based attack. It's everything else that's the problem for KWIII. One of the league's most violent runners, Walker is always banged up. That includes right now. When healthy, the approach creates lots of missed tackles but just as many car-crash collisions that don't really go anywhere. That style and its attendant health risks have put Walker's efficiency marks all over the map. There's also the simple reality that this is a two-man backfield, and Walker's 2024 advantage over Zach Charbonnet was too close for comfort. Walker will almost certainly be a top-30 back whenever he manages to stay on the field, but he is being drafted as a high-end RB2. That's an ADP as inefficient as one of Walker's head-hunting bursts into the teeth of the defense. - Patrick Daugherty
Tyreek Hill WR, Miami Dolphins
Coming off back-to-back 1,700-yard seasons, Hill was set to chase history in 2024. What fantasy managers got was historic but for only the wrong reasons. Hill was held under 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019 and scored six total touchdowns, the lowest mark of his career. He went from 3.7 yards per route run to 1.8. That is the largest year-over-year decline of the past decade and likely much longer. Hill ended his 2024 season by quitting on the team in Week 18 and rather unambiguously hinting that he was done playing in Miami. There have been no indications this offseason that the Dolphins are getting back to their high-flying, Hill-centric ways on offense. Now I'm being asked to pay a second-round price for this profile? Pass. - Kyle Dvorchak
RELATED: 2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: Full results, analysis
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR, Seattle Seahawks
The problem with JSN being the 14th wideout off the draft board isn't that he's a bad wide receiver. He's not. He's pretty good, if last season is any indication. But things have changed for JSN and the Seattle offense quite dramatically this offseason, as head coach Mike Macdonald makes it his personal mission to purge every last pass-heavy influence from the organization. That likely means the Seahawks will go from one of the NFL's pass heaviest teams in 2024 to one of the run heaviest in 2025. There's also the Cooper Kupp problem. Offseason reports indicated Kupp could occupy the slot in 2025. This would be a problem for JSN, who was one of the NFL's most efficient receivers from the slot last season, but dismally inefficient as a boundary wideout. Last year JSN ran 84 percent of his routes from the slot. If that rate slips to something closer to 60 percent, he'll struggle to be a top-15 fantasy wideout in 2025. - Denny Carter
Kyle Dvorchak,
Kaleb Johnson RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
It's going to take more than breaking Travis Hunter's tackle attempt in a preseason game for me to draft Johnson in fantasy this season. He's very popular in the fantasy football world. I told him as much at the 2025 NFL Combine, he's a nice kid, but the situation may not be as nice. There seems to be a fantasy world where he can somehow mirror (or maybe get in the ballpark) Najee Harris' rookie year where he ran for 1200 yards and caught 74 passes. Here's the thing, Jaylen Warren wasn't on the team then, but he was the following year and Harris hasn't caught 45 passes in a season since. Furthermore, Warren is currently the back who is more trusted in pass protection and with a veteran like Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, you'll need that in your bag. Johnson will get his touches, but Warren will be more involved than fantasy managers think. - Lawrence Jackson Jr.
Davante Adams WR, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams were held under 21 points in six of their final nine weeks of the regular season. Matthew Stafford is being sequestered in a truck that looks like it could travel through time rather than practicing. Does this have the feel of a situation where we have a passing game that can support two top-20 receivers? I have nothing but good things to say about Adams' talent, but the lack of work with Stafford could bite a receiver who plays a very different style of trust-based ball than Cooper Kupp does. Adams only had two 100-yard games last year with the Jets in a similar situation with Garrett Wilson. This is one situation where I think ADP is a little out over its skis. - Rivers McCown
Mike Florio and Chris Simms note Matthew Stafford is among the toughest in the NFL, but not practicing is cause for concern. They also evaluate what Jimmy Garoppolo is capable of if he needs to step in.