Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Forecast to strengthen into 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 on Friday, as latest projected path is updated
Tropical Storm Erin is expected to become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season by Friday, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.
Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is strengthening as it moves westward. The NHC said there is still uncertainty about what impact it could have on states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda.
But forecasters remain confident that Erin "will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend."
Where is Tropical Storm Erin, and what is its path?
As of 11 a.m. ET Thursday:
Erin was located 890 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
It is moving west at 17 mph.
"A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with this motion expected to continue into the weekend," the NHC said. "On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend."
What are the chances it will intensify?
Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to strengthen in the next day or so and "is expected to become a hurricane on Friday," forecasters said.
A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place
As of 11 a.m. ET Thursday, there were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
However, swells from Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.
"These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions," the hurricane center warned.
How is hurricane season shaping up?
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.
Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).
A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season, and there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Erin.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
26 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hurricane Erin tracker: See projected path of 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 season, forecast to strengthen to Category 3 over the weekend
The threat of direct impacts on states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas appears to be "gradually decreasing," NHC forecasters say. Erin has now become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season, officially forming mid-Friday morning. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect for parts of the northern Leeward Islands, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is steadily strengthening as it moves westward. The NHC said there is still uncertainty about what impact it could have on states like Florida on the U.S. East Coast, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda. But forecasters remain confident that Erin "will be a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend." Where is Hurricane Erin, and what is its path? As of 2 p.m. ET Friday: Erin was located 415 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. The storm has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. It is moving west-northwest at 17 mph. The storm is expected to continue moving west-northwest into the weekend. "The center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend," the NHC said. Starting tonight into Sunday, the outer bands of Erin are expected to bring areas of heavy rainfall across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals could range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in isolated areas, which could lead to flash or urban flooding and cause mudslides and landslides, the hurricane center said Friday. Direct impacts along the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas appear to be "gradually decreasing," according to the NHC. What are the chances it will intensify? "Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next two to three days, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend," forecasters said. A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph, according to the NHC. Watches and warnings in place As of 2 p.m. ET Friday, these are the following advisories in place, according to the NHC: Tropical storm watches are in effect for: Anguilla and Barbuda St. Martin and St. Barthelemy Saba and St. Eustatius Sint Maarten Forecasters added that, "Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday." A 'tropical storm watch' means tropical storm conditions are possible in the areas within the next 48 hours. How is hurricane season shaping up? The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal. Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13-18 (estimated at 13-19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph). A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We're currently about halfway through this year's hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been six so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.
Axios
27 minutes ago
- Axios
Erin becomes 2025's first major hurricane as storm intensifies
Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 season on Friday and is expected to pass north of the Caribbean Islands on Saturday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Threat level: Erin could become a Category 4 hurricane over the weekend if it continues to rapidly strengthen as expected, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Models show that Erin currently has maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, and is forecast to eventually become a major hurricane (wind gusts above 111 mph.) The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to "considerable" flash flooding, landslides or mudslides across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands. The threat level to the East Coast of the U.S. is decreasing, but there is still a " significant risk" the storm could cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions in the next week. State of play: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted that the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal in May, and updated the number of expected named storms to 13-18 in early August. That includes five to nine storms that could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater,) including two to five major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater). Zoom out: The higher than normal season comes alongside the Trump administration causing major shakeups to NOAA's weather and climate forecasting abilities. Shortly after taking office, Trump fired hundreds of agency employees, including some with highly-specialized skill sets. In July, Axios reviewed additional plans to cut federal research efforts and spending that specifically targeted climate change. The administration also shocked the meteorology world when it announced it would by suspending the distribution of vital hurricane forecasting satellite data in June. The agency changed course in late July, and now plans to maintain distributing that data.
UPI
28 minutes ago
- UPI
Erin becomes first hurricane of Atlantic season
1 of 2 | Hurricane Erin is predicted to move over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. It could cause problems on the east coast of the United States. Image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center Aug. 15 (UPI) -- Erin has become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season as it heads west toward the Leeward Islands and the Caribbean. In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Erin was 205 miles east of St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, and moving toward the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, with maximum sustained winds at 75 mph. Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic. The update said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands -- which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat -- should expect heavy rainfall Friday through Sunday. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides. Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and the east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, forecasters say there is a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week. Forecasters said Erin is in a favorable environment for strengthening, though there are still uncertainties. But, the global and regional hurricane models are in "good agreement" that Erin will become a powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic. The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina. Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane. Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.
