Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for August 4, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices have been volatile amidst ongoing uncertainties on the global trade front with US President Donald Trump announcing tariff rates for almost 70 trading partners.
Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors:
Last week, gold prices started the week on a lower note and fell to a near two-week low as the US struck a framework trade deal with the EU, reducing safe-haven demand. The agreement, echoing a similar one with Japan, imposed a 15% tariff on most EU goods—half the threatened rate—easing fears of a broader trade war.
Meanwhile, the US and China held talks in Stockholm, aiming to extend a 90-day tariff truce, though any decision on extension rests with President Trump. The dollar index surged from 97 to 99, pushing USDINR above 87, capping some losses for the bullion domestic front. The Fed held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, with Chair Powell suggesting no immediate cuts, pending further data.
US economic data showed mixed signals: better-than-expected GDP, ADP payrolls, inflation—PCE rose 0.3% in June, consumer confidence also rose slightly towards 100 mark.
However, US non-farm payrolls data at the end of the week was reported quite lower than expectations triggering sharp recovery from lower levels in Gold and Silver prices.
Amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, including Trump's fresh levies on Brazil, South Korea, and India and mixed economic update gold is hovering in a broad range, while silver remained weak, reflecting industrial metals' broader decline. A move in USDINR will be important to keep an eye on as any further upside could support further rally on the domestic front.
The economic calendar is fairly light this week, however US factory orders, PMI data from major economies, trade balance from China and RBI and BOE policy meeting will be in focus. The deadline of August 1 is over however, there is still no clarity on major trading partners. Technically, Gold on COMEX was not able to breach the important $3280 mark on the lower side, hence some upside could be seen from these levels.
Stance: Buy on dips - Rs 98,000 - Rs 1,01,000
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