Modi misread Trump: Now India pays the price

India Today

a day ago

A war of words has erupted between New Delhi and Washington, exposing the fragility of what was once hailed as a geopolitical success story. India has hit back hard at US President Donald Trump's threat to hike tariffs on Indian goods over continued imports of Russian oil, calling the targeting "unjustified and unreasonable" whilst slamming what it perceives as Washington's double standards.advertisement The so-called Modi-Trump bromance, once paraded as diplomatic triumph, is now cracking under the weight of harsh reality. What began with mutual praise and public spectacle, from the "Howdy Modi" event in Houston to the grand "Namaste Trump" reception in Ahmedabad, has devolved into accusations, tariffs, and transactional jabs.India's Fatal MiscalculationOne of New Delhi's fundamental missteps was assuming that warm handshakes and mega-rallies could override hard economic interests. Modi's outreach to Trump was personal, public, and passionate, but Trump doesn't separate business from bromance. The "great friend" narrative gave India false confidence that proved costly.When Modi threw his weight behind Trump, literally sharing the stage with him in Houston and Ahmedabad, it was a bet on personal chemistry over policy complexity. India saw Trump not as a volatile businessman-president, but as a dealmaker who'd favour "friends." The reality? Trump doesn't do friendships, he does leverage. And India misread that playbook entirely.From temples in Varanasi to villages in Gujarat, people performed pujas praying for Trump's victory. Modi had pulled off spectacular diplomatic theatre, and India felt it had America in its corner. Yet Trump's loyalty lies only with the US balance sheet, viewing India as a trade surplus machine rather than a strategic soulmate.The Russian Oil WedgeIndia's dependence on Russian oil has become the new wedge in this deteriorating relationship. With crude prices volatile and energy security paramount, India turned to Moscow for discounted supply, with Russia now accounting for up to 40% of India's oil imports. Trump, who views foreign policy through a profit-loss lens, sees this as betrayal.He's lashed out, accusing India of undermining the West's Ukraine strategy and "helping Putin," with tariffs becoming punishment. Worse still, he's framed it as India profiting from global chaos. Modi's government finds itself caught in a trilemma: oil security, global optics, and Trump's offensive stance.On 4th August 2025, India's Ministry of External Affairs dropped a diplomatic bombshell in response. Calling Trump's tariff threats "unjustified and unreasonable," the MEA emphasised that India's oil purchases are driven by survival, not sympathy for Moscow. With Middle Eastern oil redirected to Europe after the Ukraine war, India had little choice but to buy discounted Russian crude to shield its economy.
India's anger wasn't merely economic, it was moral. The statement highlighted US and EU hypocrisy, pointing out how the West continues trading heavily with Russia in everything from uranium to fertilisers, yet singles out India for criticism.Trump's 25% Tariff HammerTrump's imposition of a 25% tariff on all Indian goods wasn't just economic muscle-flexing, it was a warning shot. The US goods trade deficit with India stood at $45.7 billion in 2024, which Trump views as theft, plain and simple. His administration has revived old complaints about high tariffs, restricted market access, regulatory red tape, and "unfair" practices in pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and technology.Perhaps most jarring for India was Trump's renewed outreach to Pakistan, military meetings, energy cooperation discussions, and vague proposals of "regional balance." For a country that expected Trump to be firmly in its anti-Pakistan corner, this felt like betrayal, exposing another blind spot in India's strategic calculations.The Path ForwardIndia must now abandon illusions of personal diplomacy. Trump is a negotiator, not a friend, he respects leverage, not loyalty. New Delhi must shift from sentimentality to strategy, from ceremonial displays to pragmatic policy.The biggest lesson? Don't tie national strategy to individual leaders. American policy is shifting toward hard realism, and India must do the same. This means engaging not as a junior partner seeking approval, but as a sovereign power navigating a multipolar world.India's obsession with optics, handshakes, stagecraft, mega-events, must give way to tough negotiations, quiet diplomacy, and pragmatic positioning. Because Trump isn't here to dance at "Namaste Trump" events, he's here to deal. And if Modi wants to succeed, it's time to stop praying and start playing hardball politics.- Ends