Above-average risks remain at hurricane season's halfway mark — NOAA
The agency maintains the basin — which includes the Gulf of Mexico, which the Trump administration has renamed Gulf of America — could still see between 13 and 18 named storms before the end of November, with about half reaching hurricane strength.
That's about the same number of named storms forecast at the start of the season, but NOAA has revised downward the number of storms that could become hurricanes. The latest forecast says the basin could see between five and nine hurricanes by Nov. 30, down from six and 10 hurricanes forecast 10 weeks ago.
Advertisement
The nation also has a 50-50 chance of an above-normal storm season, slightly lower than what was forecast in May.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
E&E News
9 hours ago
- E&E News
Above-average risks remain at hurricane season's halfway mark — NOAA
The United States still faces above-average risks of one or more named tropical storms forming in the Atlantic basin, according to an updated forecast from NOAA that's only slightly less intense than forecasters projected at the June 1 start of hurricane season. The agency maintains the basin — which includes the Gulf of Mexico, which the Trump administration has renamed Gulf of America — could still see between 13 and 18 named storms before the end of November, with about half reaching hurricane strength. That's about the same number of named storms forecast at the start of the season, but NOAA has revised downward the number of storms that could become hurricanes. The latest forecast says the basin could see between five and nine hurricanes by Nov. 30, down from six and 10 hurricanes forecast 10 weeks ago. Advertisement The nation also has a 50-50 chance of an above-normal storm season, slightly lower than what was forecast in May.
Yahoo
10 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin expected to strengthen, become hurricane. Latest spaghetti models
Tropical Storm Erin continues to move quickly west, and is expected to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season this week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Strengthening is expected to begin soon, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasters are predicting Erin will become a major hurricane toward the end of the week or over the weekend. A major hurricane is one that's a Category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph. ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Even as a tropical rainstorm, Erin dumped 7 to 8 inches of rain on the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, killing at least six people, according to AccuWeather. The National Hurricane Center said it is still too early to determine "what impacts, if any, Erin will bring" to Florida or the east coast of the United States. Officials are encouraging residents to monitor the storm closely and to make sure they're prepared. Where is Tropical Storm Erin and where is it going? Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Tropical Storm Erin spaghetti models Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin ➤ How often has Florida been impacted, threatened by August hurricanes? We took a look back Track all active Atlantic storms and disturbances What should you do now to prepare for hurricane season? Officials regularly encourage Florida residents to prepare for storms before a hurricane is approaching while shelves are full stocked and you aren't battling crowds all rushing to the store at the same time. "It only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community," the National Hurricane Center Miami posted on X. "Hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint." On Aug. 1, specific hurricane supplies became permanently tax free in Florida, ranging from batteries to generators. ➤ See list of emergency supplies you can now buy tax free Florida weather radar for Aug. 12, 2025 Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida When is the Atlantic hurricane season? The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Ninety-seven percent of tropical cyclone activity occurs during this time period, NOAA said. The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of America, as the Gulf of Mexico is now known in the U.S. per an order from President Trump. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center are now using Gulf of America on its maps and in its advisories. When is the peak of hurricane season? The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center. Hurricane names for 2025 season Here are the names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, along with how to pronounce them: Andrea (June 20) Barry (June 29) Chantal (July 5) Dexter (Aug. 3) Erin: AIR-rin (Aug. 11) Fernand: fair-NAHN Gabrielle: ga-bree-ELL Humberto: oom-BAIR-toh Imelda: ee-MEHL-dah Jerry: JEHR-ee Karen: KAIR-ren Lorenzo: loh-REN-zoh Melissa: meh-LIH-suh Nestor: NES-tor Olga: OAL-guh Pablo: PAHB-lo Rebekah: reh-BEH-kuh Sebastien: se-BAS-tee-en Tanya: TAHN-yuh Van: van Wendy: WEN-dee Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Erin 2025: spaghetti models, Florida hurricane tracker
Yahoo
12 hours ago
- Yahoo
Tropical Storm Erin forms, may become major hurricane by weekend. Will it impact Florida?
Tropical Storm Erin has formed in the eastern Atlantic. Erin is expected to strengthen as it makes its way west across the Atlantic. Current forecasts predict it'll become a major hurricane, with sustained winds of 115 mph, within the next five days. The National Hurricane Center issued its first advisory on the system — one of three in the Atlantic — at 11 a.m. Monday, Aug. 11. The fifth-named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Erin formed earlier than the historical average of Aug. 22. No tropical storm watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether it will impact the U.S. Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Aug. 13 and become a major hurricane by Aug. 16 as it moves west across the Atlantic. Many models predict it'll curve toward the north before reaching Florida. Highlights on what Tropical Storm Erin is doing now ➤ Track all active storms ➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. Location: 280 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands; 2,305 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph Movement: west at 20 mph Pressure: 1,004 mb Next advisory: 8 p.m. CVT; 5 p.m. ET Tropical Storm Erin: What you need to know At 11 a.m. Monday, Aug. 11, the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 28.0 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days. Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Erin Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. ➤ Track Tropical Storm Erin Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida? Expected impacts from Tropical Storm Erin No tropical storm watches or warnings have been issued for Florida or the United States, and it's too early to tell whether it will impact the U.S. Erin is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Aug. 13 and become a major hurricane by Aug. 16 as it moves west across the Atlantic. Many models predict it'll curve toward the north before reaching Florida. Even if it does avoid a landfall in Florida, expect a "significant increase in seas, surf and rip currents along the East coast beaches next weekend into the following week," according to AccuWeather. How strong is Tropical Storm Erin and where is it going? The intensity forecast in the short-term is a little tricky, the National Hurricane Center said. "The earlier scatterometer data indicate the system has a small circulation which could be prone to rapid intensity changes, either up or down." Wind shear could limit Erin to slow intensification in the short-term. After that, though, warm sea-surface temperatures could mean Erin becomes a major hurricane within the next 120 hours. A major hurricane is one that is a Category 3 or higher, with at least 111 mph sustained winds. Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Erin Tropical Storm Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Aug. 11, ahead of the historical average for the fifth-named storm of the season. Erin is expected to strengthen as it moves quickly across the Atlantic. Erin could become a hurricane Aug. 13 or early Aug. 14. Current predictions call for Erin to become a major hurricane by Saturday morning, Aug. 16, with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Erin and how strong could it get? As of 11 a.m.: 45 mph 12 hours: 50 mph 24 hours: 60 mph 36 hours: 65 mph 48 hours: 70 mph 60 hours: 80 mph 72 hours: 90 mph 96 hours: 105 mph 120 hours: 115 mph What impact could Tropical Storm Erin have and what areas could be affected? It's still early to tell yet what impacts Tropical Storm Erin could have. Officials warn residents should be prepared and closely monitor the storm that's expected to become a major hurricane later this week. ➤ Excessive rainfall forecast Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past? Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text What's next? We will update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here. This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Tropical Storm Erin forms. Expected to become major hurricane. Tracker
