These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value

Yahoo

a day ago

These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value originally appeared on The Spun.
(Editor's note: This article is from The Spun by Athlon Sports' 2025 Football Betting Guide — the perfect preseason reference companion for new bettors or sharps alike. Order your copy today online, or pick one up at retail racks and newsstands nationwide.)
An important thing to understand when betting in an awards market: It doesn't matter who you think will win; it only matter who voters are most likely to support.
And in the case of the NFL MVP, history indicates those voters most likely will back a quarterback.
Not only have quarterbacks won 70% of NFL MVP awards, but they've taken home the hardware 17 times in the last 18 seasons — including 12 years in a row.
So when considering an MVP wager on a quarterback, ask yourself two questions: Can his team win its conference, and can he lead the league in touchdowns? You should be able to answer 'yes' to at least one of those questions before making any MVP bet.
When it comes to MVP longshots for 2025, your best bets are NFC quarterbacks. For an AFC longshot to win, he and his team would have to outperform Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. That's a daunting task.
Therefore, it's far easier to emerge as the top quarterback on the best team in the NFC.
With that said, here are five dark-horse candidates to win the NFL's MVP this season:
Brock Purdy +2500
The 49ers seriously regressed in 2024. The year prior, though, Brock Purdy was neck and neck with Baltimore's Lamar Jackson in the MVP race heading into their Week 16 head-to-head tilt.
Purdy imploded that night, throwing four interceptions in a 33-19 home loss. However, he's shown that he can play at an MVP level — a reason the 49ers gave him a $256 million extension in the offseason.
San Francisco will enjoy the league's easiest schedule this season, which means it conceivably could contend for the top spot in the NFC. Which makes Purdy an intriguing MVP longshot bet.
Jared Goff +3100
Detroit Jared Goff has joined the ranks of elite NFL passers. The problem with his 2025 MVP candidacy? His team's schedule, especially in the first half of the season. Seven of Detroit's first 10 opponents made the playoffs in 2024. The Lions also face the (seemingly improved) Bears and Bengals during that stretch, giving them nine contests against playoff-caliber teams through Week 11.
Now you know why Goff's MVP price is higher than Purdy's: The latter has a much easier path to MVP contention.
Baker Mayfield +3400
Baker Mayfield has posted numbers similar to Goff the last two seasons. However, the Tampa Bay quarterback has a much easier 2025 schedule — in large part because the NFC South is arguably the NFL's weakest division, while the NFC North is the toughest.
Matthew Stafford +4000
The Rams' Matthew Stafford is getting up there in age, but it's not inconceivable that he could lead the league in touchdown passes this year — especially with a wide receiver corps headlined by a healthy Puka Nacua and veteran Davante Adams, who is an upgrade over Cooper Kupp.
J.J. McCarthy +7500
The Vikings' J.J. McCarthy is a Hail Mary MVP longshot. Remember, though, head coach Kevin O'Connell's not only resurrected Sam Darnold in 2024, he got 14 wins and an MVP-quality season out of the former No. 1 pick. McCarthy, who missed all of last season with a knee injury, takes over a loaded offense. Also, his coach is one of the league's best play-callers. In other words, McCarthy has the potential to put up huge numbers for a legit playoff contender.
These 5 Longshot NFL MVP Candidates Offer Good Betting Value first appeared on The Spun on Aug 19, 2025
This story was originally reported by The Spun on Aug 19, 2025, where it first appeared.